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Prediction markets for AI Video

Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?

Mar 28, 7:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.85%chance

20759981

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

926

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

29.95%chance

12858706

OptionVotes

NO

YES

989

972

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2050?

Sep 27, 4:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65%chance

7328392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

982

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2045?

Sep 27, 4:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

5525659

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1073

939

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2040?

Sep 27, 4:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55%chance

6522165

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1083

919

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1518776

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2027

2026

2028

2029

2025

2024

25

20

19

16

16

4

1

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

Nov 20, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3818719

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

53

51

42

35

19

0

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2035?

Sep 27, 4:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.63%chance

529351

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

635

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?

Jan 5, 12:58 AMJan 6, 10:59 PM

50%chance

416362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

932

Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2026?

Dec 26, 6:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39%chance

535054

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1458

418

In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube?

Sep 26, 1:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

43.42%chance

441839

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

687

Will a YouTube video of/about a Gen-AI film awards ceremony reach 1 million+ views within a year of release by 2030?"

Oct 3, 6:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

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