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Prediction markets for AI Video

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

86.58%chance

177112186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2208

144

Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?

Mar 28, 7:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.81%chance

21665360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2326

331

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2050?

Sep 27, 4:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65%chance

7528472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

982

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2040?

Sep 27, 4:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

63.19%chance

7223085

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1287

778

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

Nov 20, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3818973

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

54

52

44

35

17

0

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1518931

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2027

2026

2028

2029

2025

2024

25

20

18

16

16

4

1

By 2029, will AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 Indie Games?

Oct 2, 1:12 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

71.53%chance

5015948

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1682

474

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2035?

Sep 27, 4:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61.38%chance

5710729

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1461

448

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?

Jan 5, 12:58 AMJan 6, 10:59 PM

20.97%chance

467509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1959

462

Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2026?

Dec 26, 6:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.51%chance

626005

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2198

167

In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube?

Sep 26, 1:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.9%chance

451869

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1147

717

Will a YouTube video of/about a Gen-AI film awards ceremony reach 1 million+ views within a year of release by 2030?"

Oct 3, 6:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.49%chance

251

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

951

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