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Prediction markets for AI Video Creator

Will photo/video "AI detection" meaningfully exist in December 2028?

Dec 1, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.67%chance

323364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1847

541

Which YouTube channels will post an AI Safety/Alignment video in 2026

Jan 3, 1:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11387

OptionProbability

Veritasium

Kurzgesagt

Wendover Productions

Vsauce

SmarterEveryDay

3Blue1Brown

Mark Rober

83

79

64

41

34

28

9

When will Manifest 2026 upload videos of presentations to Youtube?

Jun 3, 6:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9115

OptionProbability

During 2026

Within a month

Not Before June 2027

46

39

15

Will I be the pirate king

Jun 11, 12:16 PMJun 11, 12:15 PM

26.97%chance

4113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

161

15

Will a top-20 Super Bowl advertiser air a primarily AI-generated commercial during Super Bowl LXI (Feb 2027)?

Apr 17, 9:34 PMMar 5, 12:00 PM

35.18%chance

670

OptionVotes

NO

YES

215

170

Will Ludwig be a guest on Jet Lag: The Game by 2028?

Mar 25, 6:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.02%chance

567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

I offered to raise money for a guy I met by video over a year ago. Will he accept my help fundraising by 7/11/26?

Jun 25, 10:58 PMJul 10, 11:59 PM

54%chance

211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

92

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