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Prediction markets for AI Writer

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

8138437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27819

3071

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?

Feb 27, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.7%chance

14336408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5405

1263

Will 2025 be referred to as the start of the second Great Depression?

Apr 3, 11:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.27%chance

306974

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3570

280

Will 5%+ of writers and designers lose their jobs by 2025?

May 12, 9:26 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM

10.64%chance

445031

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3584

468

Will a movie that has at least some AI-generated dialogue win an Oscar by EOY 2028?

Dec 26, 12:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.83%chance

402972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1906

443

When will we be able to chat with an AI convincingly impersonating a famous historical or living person?

Feb 5, 10:08 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

241238

OptionProbability

In 2028 or earlier

In 2027 or earlier

In 2026 or earlier

In 2024

In 2025 or earlier

58

52

49

0

0

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 2, 6:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.11%chance

271022

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1148

962

How long until a writer can use AI alone to generate consistent imagery for a comic book / graphic novel?

Jan 9, 2:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

28%chance

19558

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1073

697

Will 5%+ of writers and designers lose their jobs by 2028?

May 12, 9:30 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM

60.83%chance

14531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

199

191

Will humans remain better at clever turns of phrase and great illustrations, as Wired claims?

Nov 2, 3:43 PMNov 3, 2:37 PM

41.7%chance

6320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

846

Will a widely read online blogger/author/opinion writer turns out to be an AI before 2030?

Nov 3, 8:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.93%chance

5121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

29

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