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Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.55%chance

8250361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28550

2982

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?

Feb 27, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.7%chance

14336408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5405

1263

Who will win the 2026 NFL MVP?

Sep 28, 1:02 AMFeb 15, 11:59 PM

1831890

OptionProbability

Joe Burrow

Josh Allen

Brock Purdy

Caleb Williams

Trevor Lawrence

Patrick Mahomes

Jordan Love

Jared Goff

Jalen Hurts

Lamar Jackson

C.J. Stroud

Justin Herbert

Jayden Daniels

Kyler Murray

Dak Prescott

Matthew Stafford

Aaron Rodgers

Other

Kirk Cousins

33

22

15

8

8

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

Will 2025 be referred to as the start of the second Great Depression?

Apr 3, 11:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.26%chance

329969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4743

211

Will a movie that has at least some AI-generated dialogue win an Oscar by EOY 2028?

Dec 26, 12:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.59%chance

454012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2813

277

2026-2027 Calder Trophy

Oct 3, 3:23 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

52312

OptionProbability

James Hagens

Gavin McKenna

Ivar Stenberg

Anton Frondell

Cole Hutson

Michael Misa

Jakub Dvorak

Other

Porter Martone

23

20

15

12

8

6

6

6

4

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 2, 6:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.39%chance

281172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1298

953

How long until a writer can use AI alone to generate consistent imagery for a comic book / graphic novel?

Jan 9, 2:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

28%chance

19558

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1073

697

Will humans remain better at clever turns of phrase and great illustrations, as Wired claims?

Nov 2, 3:43 PMNov 3, 2:37 PM

40.49%chance

7350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1212

825

Will a widely read online blogger/author/opinion writer turns out to be an AI before 2030?

Nov 3, 8:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.93%chance

5121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

29

Will Touhou creator Ota Junya (ZUN) attend a convention in the United States before 2030?

Aug 27, 8:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Jose Luis Ricon live to see 600ppm

May 12, 11:57 PMMay 12, 11:57 PM

51.96%chance

14

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

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