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Prediction markets for AI Writing

In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

Feb 20, 10:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.54%chance

22963339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2667

618

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

10913611

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2950

638

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

37.47%chance

5511514

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1365

660

Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?

Dec 2, 5:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.88%chance

625438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

768

Will an AI system write a high quality "Winds of Winter" novel before George RR Martin publishes the actual thing?

Jun 19, 2:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.01%chance

654959

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1093

591

If I write an encyclopedia of bad AI arguments, will people seem to find it useful?

Sep 12, 3:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

79.43%chance

442041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

707

Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?

Apr 9, 4:13 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM

24.72%chance

321957

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1802

300

Will AI write 75%+ of social media view-generating posts (default to Twitter) by EOY 2026?

Oct 22, 2:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12%chance

281644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1328

928

When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs

May 6, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16695

OptionProbability

2044-2045

2029-2030

2028-2029

2030-2031

2027-2028

2031-2032

2026-2027

2024-2025

2025-2026

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

34

25

21

7

5

5

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

932

The first religion centred around the prophetic writings and responses of AI or an AI will be founded before Oct 2026

Oct 16, 7:59 AMOct 15, 10:59 PM

81%chance

5225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

206

48

Will AI be able to write a "Harry Potter" book featuring all the 2011-2014 Thiel Fellows as characters by 2030?

Mar 16, 6:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.83%chance

789

OptionVotes

NO

YES

279

153

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