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Prediction markets for AI Writing

In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

Feb 20, 10:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.3%chance

24471978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2789

503

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.14%chance

10914299

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3638

469

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

76.02%chance

6514148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1660

648

Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?

Dec 2, 5:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

89.42%chance

707182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2215

747

Will an AI system write a high quality "Winds of Winter" novel before George RR Martin publishes the actual thing?

Jun 19, 2:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.95%chance

665009

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1073

641

Will AI write 75%+ of social media view-generating posts (default to Twitter) by EOY 2026?

Oct 22, 2:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.52%chance

292144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1828

872

If I write an encyclopedia of bad AI arguments, will people seem to find it useful?

Sep 12, 3:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

79.43%chance

442041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

707

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

932

Will AI creative writing have an o1 moment before 2027?

Oct 26, 11:24 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

42.91%chance

17331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Will an AI be able to write a prescription for medication in the US or a EU member country by 2030?

May 11, 7:13 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15.11%chance

5131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

69

will an ai write knuth's next book before he does?

Mar 23, 3:31 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM

36.39%chance

492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

96

[Ṁ$1000 bounty per] How many errors will be found in "We Didn't Write the Weights" (199 AI-history entries) before 2027?

Oct 13, 12:23 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

00

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

4

5

Above 5

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

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