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Prediction markets for AI Writing

In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

Feb 20, 10:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

23364195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2697

587

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

10913611

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2950

638

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

36.31%chance

5711924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

643

Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?

Dec 2, 5:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76.33%chance

686799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1086

959

Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?

Apr 9, 4:13 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM

27%chance

485185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1731

325

Will an AI system write a high quality "Winds of Winter" novel before George RR Martin publishes the actual thing?

Jun 19, 2:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.01%chance

654959

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1093

591

If I write an encyclopedia of bad AI arguments, will people seem to find it useful?

Sep 12, 3:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

79.43%chance

442041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

707

Will AI write 75%+ of social media view-generating posts (default to Twitter) by EOY 2026?

Oct 22, 2:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12%chance

281644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1328

928

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

932

The first religion centred around the prophetic writings and responses of AI or an AI will be founded before Oct 2026

Oct 16, 7:59 AMOct 15, 10:59 PM

81%chance

5225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

206

48

When will AI write great tailor-made math textbooks? (see description)

Feb 15, 8:51 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

2166

OptionProbability

2032-2033

>=2036 / never

2030-2031

2034-2035

2028-2029

2026-2027

23

23

19

17

10

8

Will an AI be able to write a prescription for medication in the US or a EU member country by 2030?

May 11, 7:13 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15.11%chance

5131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

69

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