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AI Writing News

In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

Feb 20, 10:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

23565497

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2697

587

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

10913611

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2950

638

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

53.53%chance

6012930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

948

Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?

Dec 2, 5:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

89.47%chance

687089

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2224

746

Will an AI system write a high quality "Winds of Winter" novel before George RR Martin publishes the actual thing?

Jun 19, 2:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.95%chance

665009

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1073

641

Will AI be able to write a passable Manifold weekly newsletter by EOY 2026?

Aug 13, 5:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.7%chance

343381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

159

63

If I write an encyclopedia of bad AI arguments, will people seem to find it useful?

Sep 12, 3:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

79.43%chance

442041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

707

Will AI write 75%+ of social media view-generating posts (default to Twitter) by EOY 2026?

Oct 22, 2:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12%chance

281644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1328

928

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

932

The first religion centred around the prophetic writings and responses of AI or an AI will be founded before Oct 2026

Oct 16, 7:59 AMOct 15, 10:59 PM

76.8%chance

6236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

182

55

will an ai write knuth's next book before he does?

Mar 23, 3:31 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM

36.39%chance

492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

96

Will AI be able to write a "Harry Potter" book featuring all the 2011-2014 Thiel Fellows as characters by 2030?

Mar 16, 6:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.83%chance

789

OptionVotes

NO

YES

279

153

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