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Prediction markets for Aid

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?

Jan 3, 3:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65.2%chance

506015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1310

770

If Trump Wins, will the USA pass more Ukraine aid at least once before the 2026 midterm elections?

Mar 11, 3:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.07%chance

272657

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2106

1894

If Trump is elected president, will he approve a new foreign aid package to Ukraine while he is in office?

Mar 9, 9:38 PMNov 1, 6:59 AM

75.42%chance

282200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1612

690

US provides military aid to Russia before January 20, 2029

Mar 11, 3:37 PMJan 20, 12:00 AM

21.28%chance

221633

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1924

520

2x2: Will Labour get a majority, Will UK aid be at or above the 0.6% of GNI by the end of the Parliament?

Dec 20, 4:01 PMDec 27, 11:59 PM

3721

OptionProbability

Labour Majority, aid < 0.6% GNI

Labour Majority, aid >= 0.6% GNI

Not Labour Majority, aid >= 0.6% GNI

Not Labour Majority, aid < 0.6% GNI

77

21

1

1

Will Joe Biden be photographed using a mobility aid (e.g. a cane) before 2029?

Dec 21, 6:48 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

69.07%chance

22581

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

967

Will evidence emerge that Anthropic's pursuit of regulatory capture is aided by U.S. Adversaries by 2027 year end?

Feb 5, 5:21 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

10.17%chance

9405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

675

266

Will UNAIDS report that AIDS caused more deaths in 2025 than 2024?

Feb 17, 1:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.1%chance

11288

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

94

Will UNAIDS report that AIDS caused more deaths in 2024 than in 2023?

Feb 17, 1:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.59%chance

7207

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

82

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against AIDS before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.21%chance

4100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

410

292

Will the swimming pool at AGI House close due to AIDS

Jan 22, 11:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.7%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

72

What countries will receive more than 100 million dollars in military aid from the US in 2029?

Sep 6, 4:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

Israel

Ukraine

Egypt

Saudi Arabia

Taiwan

Jordan

Czechia

Poland

Bulgaria

Romania

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

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