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Prediction markets for AIM Model

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

215978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10497

2690

Will a single model have all the upsides o1-style RL with none of the downsides at 2027?

Nov 20, 5:32 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

74.39%chance

154377

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1704

587

Will there be an “overnight” math revolution changing what we known as encryption forever by 2028

Aug 18, 9:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.11%chance

423048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2074

735

Does hidden interpolation explain >25% of AI progress?

Dec 4, 12:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.09%chance

82651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

870

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.94%chance

372146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

884

Will OpenAI pause capabilities R&D voluntarily before 2027?

Apr 22, 11:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.79%chance

191655

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2539

947

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

26.65%chance

241455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1185

903

Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.13%chance

24783

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

892

Will the transformer architecture be replaced in SOTA LLMs by 2028?

Dec 26, 8:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

54.33%chance

21752

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1155

804

Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?

Aug 3, 6:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

32.16%chance

9722

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1452

689

Will charged lepton flavor violation via muon to electron conversion be observed by 2030?

Mar 14, 3:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.98%chance

11284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

947

Will POTUS issue an executive order aiming to mitigate security risks associated with open-source AI models before 2027?

Jul 20, 8:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.15%chance

12163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

63

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