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Prediction markets for AIME 2025

UK gov accepts all 47 Fingleton nuclear review recommendations by Q1 2026?

Nov 29, 7:47 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

57.11%chance

1210212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10566

5092

China's 70-city new home price index for January 2026 ≥ -2.0% YoY?

Nov 26, 6:08 AMFeb 27, 11:59 PM

34.95%chance

226964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13641

7331

What will the 2026 AIME I + 2025 AMC 12 A USAMO Cutoff be?

Jan 4, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

353318

OptionProbability

380.5-400

400.5-420

360.5-380

320.5-340

340.5-360

420.5-450

0-300

300.5-320

40

36

9

6

5

3

0

0

Will Hanoi ban gas powered bikes within Ring Roads 1 within one year?

Jul 15, 10:32 PMJul 15, 10:28 PM

49.66%chance

3661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

993

Will there be a new census before 2030?

Aug 7, 4:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.11%chance

11402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

802

Alcoa's aluminum segment 2026 production exceeds 2.3 Mt (2,300 kt)

Jan 12, 7:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.24%chance

9400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1370

730

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Mar 17, 4:13 PMMay 21, 6:59 AM

50.46%chance

8375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

991

Will "Aim for single piece flow" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 25, 8:09 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

Will I publish more Substack articles in 2026 than in 2025?

Jan 10, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54%chance

7236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1084

923

Will Baidu driverless cars be available to ride in London in 2026?

Dec 22, 6:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.98%chance

3102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

961

In which Quarter will open the first new part of Venice MarcoPolo Airport with Gates A?

Jul 31, 4:37 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

3/2025

4/2025

1/2026

Other

25

25

25

25

Where will the 11th U.S. National Eucharistic Congress in 2029 take place?

Dec 12, 4:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Chicago, IL

New Orleans, LA

St. Louis, MO

Los Angeles, CA

Philadelphia, PA

Boston, MA

San Antonio, TX

Atlanta, GA

Denver, CO

Dallas, TX

Other (Comment below for which city - may add to the list)

Other

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

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