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Prediction markets for AIME 2025

Will Elon musk form a new political party

Jul 1, 1:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.51%chance

310372674

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1264

791

Will Musk be on good terms with Trump at the end of 2025?

Nov 13, 4:14 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

17.56%chance

548335912

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7855

5297

Los Angeles Fires - Coordinated Arson?

Jan 10, 8:00 AMJan 10, 7:59 AM

1%chance

66307599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

230319

20

Will Israel achieve its goals in Iran?

Jun 17, 12:32 AMJan 1, 1:22 AM

20.01%chance

7112021

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

Will at least half of lunar landers launched in 2025 successfuly land?

Feb 27, 1:25 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

32.69%chance

184342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2116

1689

Renters' Rights Bill receives Royal Assent by August 31, 2025

Jun 19, 6:10 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

25.98%chance

23426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2274

1059

Will Manifold Markets be blocked in Brazil before 2026?

Sep 20, 4:59 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

6.5%chance

82515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2899

62

Will Hanoi ban gas powered bikes within Ring Roads 1 within one year?

Jul 15, 10:32 PMJul 15, 10:28 PM

49.66%chance

3661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

993

Conditional on OpenAI releasing an open-source LLM in 2025, will it exceed o3-mini in AIME 2025 score?

Jun 30, 2:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.74%chance

12637

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1449

690

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Mar 17, 4:13 PMMay 21, 6:59 AM

53.04%chance

7325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

941

Who will win the 2025 UK celebrity traitors series

Jun 23, 9:44 AMOct 31, 12:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Tameka Empson

Tom Daley

Alan Carr

Cat Burns

Celia Imrie

Charlotte Church

Clare Balding

David Olusoga

Joe Marler

Joe Wilkinson

Jonathan Ross

Kate Garraway

Lucy Beaumont

Mark Bonnar

Nick Mohammed

Niko Omilana

Paloma Faith

Ruth Codd

Stephen Fry

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

In which Quarter will open the first new part of Venice MarcoPolo Airport with Gates A?

Jul 31, 4:37 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

3/2025

4/2025

1/2026

Other

25

25

25

25

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