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Prediction markets for AIME 2025

Which month will Starship HLS land on the Moon?

May 28, 2:12 AMDec 31, 2:04 AM

136911

OptionProbability

Other

HLS Cancelled

November 2027

December 2027

January 2028

February 2028

March 2028

April 2028

May 2028

June 2028

July 2028

July 2027

August 2027

September 2027

October 2027

August 2028

September 2028

November 2028

June 2027

October 2028

April 2027

May 2027

January 2026

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

December 2026

January 2027

February 2027

March 2027

15

14

5

5

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Clarity Act will pass in September

Jun 4, 1:00 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

34.61%chance

32738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1374

728

Does hidden interpolation explain >25% of AI progress?

Dec 4, 12:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.09%chance

82651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

870

Alcoa Australia 2026 alumina production exceeds 6.0 Mt (6,000 kt)

Jan 12, 7:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.13%chance

61694

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1367

732

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

30.74%chance

231305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

963

Will I publish more Substack articles in 2026 than in 2025 (58)?

Jan 10, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.75%chance

9636

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1484

674

Alcoa's aluminum segment 2026 production exceeds 2.3 Mt (2,300 kt)

Jan 12, 7:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.66%chance

12591

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1516

660

Will Baidu driverless cars be available to ride in London in 2026?

Dec 22, 6:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.22%chance

7494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1170

855

Will there be a new census before 2030?

Aug 7, 4:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

12417

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

816

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Mar 17, 4:13 PMMay 21, 6:59 AM

50.46%chance

8375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

991

Will "Aim for single piece flow" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 25, 8:09 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

Where will the 11th U.S. National Eucharistic Congress in 2029 take place?

Dec 12, 4:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Chicago, IL

New Orleans, LA

St. Louis, MO

Los Angeles, CA

Philadelphia, PA

Boston, MA

San Antonio, TX

Atlanta, GA

Denver, CO

Dallas, TX

Other (Comment below for which city - may add to the list)

Other

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

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