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Prediction markets for AIME 2025

Will Elon musk form a new political party

Jul 1, 1:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.49%chance

399623404

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10180

367

Will Musk be on good terms with Trump at the end of 2025?

Nov 13, 4:14 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

94.23%chance

639406041

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15011

291

Los Angeles Fires - Coordinated Arson?

Jan 10, 8:00 AMJan 10, 7:59 AM

1%chance

69312980

OptionVotes

YES

NO

230319

20

Will an 'AI Bust' or 'AI Winter' Occur by the End of 2025?

Jun 11, 12:13 PMDec 11, 10:59 PM

3.84%chance

8728473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3718

758

AIME cutoff for MAA AMC 10A in 2025?

Nov 6, 5:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3125889

OptionProbability

93

91.5

97.5 or above

90

88.5

94.5

96

84

87

81 or lower

85.5

82.5

36

26

8

7

6

6

4

2

2

1

1

0

Will at least half of lunar landers launched in 2025 successfuly land?

Feb 27, 1:25 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

1.5%chance

2220980

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18244

455

New York State RAISE Act becomes law?

Jun 24, 3:01 AMJan 2, 4:01 AM

69.98%chance

114551

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4882

2686

UK gov accepts all 47 Fingleton nuclear review recommendations by Q1 2026?

Nov 29, 7:47 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

39.36%chance

73739

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7965

7875

2025 AMC 12B AIME cutoff?

Nov 15, 2:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

112544

OptionProbability

84 - 90

Above 90

76.5 - 82.5

Below 76.5

95

3

2

0

China's 70-city new home price index for January 2026 ≥ -2.0% YoY?

Nov 26, 6:08 AMFeb 27, 11:59 PM

56.37%chance

41397

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11367

8797

Will "Aim for single piece flow" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 25, 8:09 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

In which Quarter will open the first new part of Venice MarcoPolo Airport with Gates A?

Jul 31, 4:37 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

3/2025

4/2025

1/2026

Other

25

25

25

25

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