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Prediction markets for AIME 2025

Will Elon musk form a new political party

Jul 1, 1:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25%chance

353406603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2266

1066

Will Musk be on good terms with Trump at the end of 2025?

Nov 13, 4:14 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

18.21%chance

549338451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7595

5353

Los Angeles Fires - Coordinated Arson?

Jan 10, 8:00 AMJan 10, 7:59 AM

1%chance

66307599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

230319

20

Renters' Rights Bill receives Royal Assent by August 31, 2025

Jun 19, 6:10 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

1.26%chance

616257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15026

255

Will Israel achieve its goals in Iran?

Jun 17, 12:32 AMJan 1, 1:22 AM

19.96%chance

7113133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2003

499

Will at least half of lunar landers launched in 2025 successfuly land?

Feb 27, 1:25 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

32.28%chance

194367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2141

1677

Will Manifold Markets be blocked in Brazil before 2026?

Sep 20, 4:59 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

6.5%chance

82515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2899

62

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Mar 17, 4:13 PMMay 21, 6:59 AM

53.04%chance

7325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

941

Will there be a new census before 2030?

Aug 7, 4:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.51%chance

10295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1139

878

New York State RAISE Act becomes law?

Jun 24, 3:01 AMJan 2, 4:01 AM

58.63%chance

6200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3690

3340

In which Quarter will open the first new part of Venice MarcoPolo Airport with Gates A?

Jul 31, 4:37 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

3/2025

4/2025

1/2026

Other

25

25

25

25

Who will win the 2025 UK celebrity traitors series

Jun 23, 9:44 AMOct 31, 12:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Tameka Empson

Tom Daley

Alan Carr

Cat Burns

Celia Imrie

Charlotte Church

Clare Balding

David Olusoga

Joe Marler

Joe Wilkinson

Jonathan Ross

Kate Garraway

Lucy Beaumont

Mark Bonnar

Nick Mohammed

Niko Omilana

Paloma Faith

Ruth Codd

Stephen Fry

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

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