Alan News

Trump will be the POTUS

FED rates will be below 5% on 1st January 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be between 300M to 350M on 1st Jan 2025

At Least 1 earthquake with magnitude 8.0 or higher

1 or more Jan 6 rioters get pardoned

Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities

Hollow Knight Silk song released

LEMMiNO releases a new video

Elon removed as doge head

Pope dies

Dodgers win World Series

Yoon Suk Yeol impeachment upheld by supreme court

Its revealed that Elon Musk had more children then 13 already known

Famous global brand goes through a rebranding

GPT 5 releases

T1 three-peat as League of Legends world champions

Los Ratones win against T1, or lose 2-3 (either case should resolve YES, if they don't play against each other this should be NO)

This whole market gets more than 300 traders

Russia retains de facto control over Crimea

Avatar: Fire and Ash released

King Charles will be alive for the whole year of 2025

FED rates will be below 4% on 31st December 2025

Any incumbent world leader diagnosed with cancer after 28th January 2025

Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI >= 97%

There will be less MAU at manifold in December 2025 then there would be in January 2025

In one of the monthly polls, >= 80.0% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that weak AGI has been achieved

Yoon Suk Yeol convicted of insurrection

Saudi Arabia - Israel normalize relations

MKBHD marries his girlfriend Nikki Hair

At least one world leader (prime minister, president, or monarch) gets assassinated while in office

Department of Education ended by executive order (even if temporarily)

Ali Khamenei assassisnated

Ali Khamenei dies a natural death

Ukraine internal coup attempt

Elections in Bangladesh come to pass (currently planned for late 2025 to early 2026)

At least one Premier of a Canadian province proposes joining the USA

Any newspaper reports a US Default on any debt

In one of the monthly polls, a plurality of Manifold users declares the achievement of weak superintelligence

Chuck Schumer resigns

Californian independence gains enough signatures

Attempted assassination on Zelensky in which he gets hurt but survives

Attempt to assassinate trump in 2025

Russia-Ukraine war will end in 2025

Harry and Meghan divorce

Early general elections in Pakistan

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80%

US-China war

Biden gets hospitalised

EF3+ Tornado Impacts Florida

United States government acknowledges the existence of life anywhere other than on or close to Earth

Kate and William divorce

Sam Altman gets fired again

At least one Premier of a Canadian province takes a concrete step, such as holding a referendum, to join the USA

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 90%

One of the Millenium prize problems falls to a model

Zelensky Assassinated

Article 5 of NATO invoked

Marco Rubio fired or "resigns" upon rumors of his impending termination

Elon Musk diagnosed with COVID-19

Congress repeals any tariff

In one of the monthly polls, >= 33.3% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that non-human intelligence has influenced Earth

A country leaves NATO

NATO at war with Russia

A nuclear bomb explodes

FrontierMath solved (>= 80%) and model is available to any person in the United States willing to pay for it

Bitcoin reaches 150k sometimes during 2025

United States government acknowledges the existence of non-human intelligence on or close to Earth

Trump assassinated

2025 hotter then 2024

USA claims intelligences of extra-terrestrial origin have credibly visited or sent technology to a location within our solar system in an official government statement

Putin assassinated

OpenAI o6 or any o6 variant released

China annexes Taiwan

Filibuster abolished

Putin dies

2025 is the 15th "Year of Three Popes"

Los Ratones go to LoL Worlds

Mike Johnson is not Speaker

Biden dies

Bethesda releases a new game in the Elder Scroll series

Taylor Swift will be "single" anytime during 2025

US debt ceiling will be scrapped during 2025

Apple will release first foldable smartphone during 2025

The winds of winter by GRR Martin will release

LK99 replicates at last

Greenland Joins USA

End of the world by celery

Ukraine joins NATO

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before June 30

A US state secedes from the union

51st US State

A country leaves the EU

Phillies win the World Series

Peter Turkson elected Pope

GTA 6 releases

After the release of GPT-5, every monthly Manifold poll results in a plurality of respondents agreeing that weak AGI has been achieved

Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero

2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US

Harris will be the POTUS

Bitcoin will be > 100k on 1st January 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be below 300M on 1st Jan 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be above 350M on 1st Jan 2025

Jimmy Carter will be alive on 1st January 2025

Jimmy Carter will be alive on 31st December 2025

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before March 31

Francis is always Pope

New pope takes name "Francis"

First papal conclave >= 10 ballots

Gauss

Euler

Archimedes

@121

Other

Von Neumann

Ramanujan

Alexander Grothendieck

Newton

Kurt Gödel

David Hilbert

Augustin-Louis Cauchy

Pythagoras

Euclid (of Geometry)

Galois (died at 20 fighting for a girl he loved)

Erdos (on amphetamines)

Alonzo Chuch (lambda calculus)

Matt Damon (of Good Will Hunting)

Poincare

Finkelstein (of the levi finkelstein conjecture)

Mandelbrot (The B in Benoit B Mandelbrot is Benoit B Mandelbrot)

Trick question; there are no mathematicians.

Idk, your mom seemed pretty good at multiplying last night

sixtynine, you filthy casuals

David A. Cox (Cox-Zucker machine)

The solver of the Riemann Hypothesis

Ludwig Wittgenstein

John Conway (group theory, among others)

the unknown ancient egyptian who invented zero

Descartes

Leibniz

Bourbaki

Laplace

@Mira

Georg Cantor

Frank Ramsey

Fermat

Emmy Noether

Ada Lovelace

.

p

Terry Tao

DottedCalculator

GPT8

Riemann

Claude Shannon

God

Alan Turing

Grigori Perelman

Olga Ladyzhenskaya

Weyl, Weyl

John Gabriel

Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube

Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases

Bitcoin reaches 200K usd or more

trump is impeached by either house OR senate

Hades 3 announced (game)

English Wikipedia reaches 70M PAGES or more

Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more

windows 12 announcement is made

this market reaches 100 traders

undersea cables reported cut around taiwan

this market reaches 5k individual TRADES

Saw XI Releases in USA

stripe ipo happens

another trump assassination attempt

Legally Blonde 3 release date announced

a second cybertruck explodes (intended or unintended) that makes the news

the "500 poll" reaches its target goal of 500 responses

chinese spy balloon incident reported on news

openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo

alan greenspan passes away

israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will

manifold raises more money

discord IPO happens

trump removes a cabinet member

someone reaches 100k traders on creator leaderboard

noam chomsky passes away

Imu face reveal in One Piece manga

onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube

Skibidi Toilet ends their original series

GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86

Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)

Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 75M views on Youtube

Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users

fourth Knives Out movie announced

EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26

EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 27

zootopia 2 releases

Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape

Spacex launches 150th rocket of the year

Cy Young award winner announced

MLB rookie of the year announced

Last game of the MLB World Series ends

EOD Halloween - Oct 31

First game of the MLB World Series starts

coup in an african country

2025 nobel peace prize winner announced

Third dune movie officially announced

EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9

Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more

the third Atlantic hurricane of the season

the second Atlantic hurricane of the season

Skate 4 releases

trump starts mass deportations

Taylor Swift announce engagement or marriage

the first Atlantic hurricane of the season

Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year

Chat GPT 5 releases to the general userbase

Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse release date announced

Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world

Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world

Killing Floor 3 releases on Steam

grok4 release date

the start of Amazon Prime Day(s) 2025

EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4

the third Pacific hurricane of the season

28 years Later releases in USA

the second Pacific hurricane of the season

chime IPO happens

Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year

First Apple Event of the year

the first Pacific hurricane of the season

manifest 2025 ends

Manifest 2025 starts

Mr Beast hits 400M Youtube Subscribers

Bitcoin reaches 110K usd or more

English Wikipedia reaches 7M ARTICLES or more

claude 4 sonnet releases (or later version)

EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5

Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year

Last day of the NFL draft

Llama 4 released to the general userbase

Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video

south korean president removed from power

the first Solar eclipse of the year

First Nintendo direct of the year

trump declares war or orders military actions on another country

Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire

EOD Ides of March - Mar 15

the first Lunar eclipse of the year

EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras

trump enacts new or changed tariffs on mexico

new iphone releases in the USA (official date)

Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year

new iphone release date announced (in the USA)

grok 3 release date

nintendo switch successor announced officially

trump enacts new or changed tariffs on china

CGP Grey releases a new video (not a reupload)

doomsday clock announcement

USA President issues 10th executive order

USA President issues 1st executive order

Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends

Other

Geoffrey Hinton

Ilya Sutskever

Noam Shazeer

Alan Turing

Alec Radford

Daniel Hillis

Ben Goertzle

Yann LeCun

Demis Hassabis

Paul Christiano

Charles Babbage

Yoshua Bengio

Jürgen Schmidhuber

John Schulman

Noam Brown

Liang Wenfeng

Alex Krizhevsky

Donald Knuth

George Boole

Kaiming He

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Marvin Minsky

Judea Pearl

Raymond Solomonoff

Andrew Ng

Fei-Fei Li

Dario Amodei

David Silver

Andrej Karpathy

Large Tech company announces layoffs

Israel : Hamas Ceasefire

Taylor Swift becomes engaged to be married (to anyone)

MLB World Series won by the National League team

Earthquake over 8.0 magnitude

Pope Francis dies

Taylor Swift drops a new album (not a Taylor’s Version of an older album actually majority new tracks)

USA government shutdown

New Pope

Skate 4 Release

Tesla catches fire reported by news or https://www.tesla-fire.com/

Three or more teslas catch fire as reported by the Tesla-fire website (or multiple mainstream news)

A famous global brand undergoes a rebranding

6 or more people die in a single shooting incident in the united states

gpt 5 released

Nintendo Direct airs

bitcoin reaches a new all time high

joseph anderson releases his long awaited witcher 3 video

new iphone releases

hollow knight silksong releases

spacex makes >=150 launches in 1 year, all in 2025

elon musk has another child

Dutch coalition resigns

White House goes under lockdown for any period of time

any country starts a new invasion of another country

official trailer releases for S&box (new facepunch / garry mod game)

at least one equipment caused death at a theme park in the USA due to ride failure, negligence, or other similar cause (not: pool drowning, natural disasters , medical, or forced violence)

Skibidi Toilet ends their original series

Total funding for the Effective Altruism movement grows >25% compared to 2023

23andMe goes private

Assassination of an African head of state

Assassination of a North American or South American head of state

grimace shake returns at mcdonalds in usa

commercial airline hijacking

New CEO of Twitter

there is a need to replace an existing supreme court justice (dies/retires/etc) or they add another justice

Assassination of a European or Asian head of state

Chat GPT 6 releases

Trump or Biden are hospitalized for any period of time

Bitcoin closes higher on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2025) than it closed on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2024) [EST] ***

Imu face reveal in One Piece

destiny talks to joe rogan

Joe Biden dies

reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread

Donald Trump diagnosed with COVID-19

Someone other than Netanyahu becomes prime minister of Israel

Taylor Swift breaks up with Kelce

Twitter releases peer to peer payment system, for at least all premium users if not everyone

North Korea and South Korea conflict reignites into a hot war, and results in at least one death

Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI reaches 100%

H5N1 pandemic declared

Trump threatens to deport Musk

Russia : Ukraine ceasefire

AI wipes out humanity

nuclear detonation occurs (can be a test)

bitcoin drops down and reaches 30k or less

Starliner program terminated

chris (strutheo) leaves Manifold and this market is resolved by the @mods

Vladimir Putin dies

Donald Trump dies

Kanye West is arrested or admitted to a mental hospital

tiktok USA company sale is signed and finalized

The same city wins at least two of the Super Bowl, NBA Finals, Stanley Cup, and World Series

Musk : Zuckerberg fight actually happens

Vivek Ramaswamy comes out as LGBTQ

Bitcoin hits $200k USD

MrBeast hits 500 Million subscribers

LK99 or another room temperature superconductor causes another wave of mainstream global news hype

a twitter account besides elon musk reaches 200M followers

Aberdeen Football Club are top of the Scottish Premiership table

MLB World Series won by the American League team

Jimmy Carter dies

linda yaccarino still ceo of twitter at end of year

Robert Redford

Diane Keaton

Graham Greene

Val Kilmer

Terence Stamp

Alan Bergman

Michael Madsen

Bob Newhart

Julian McMahon

Tom Stoppard

Richard Chamberlain

Hulk Hogan

George Wendt

Robert Benton

Lalo Schifrin

Claudia Cardinale

Diane Ladd

Eva Marie Saint

Giorgio Armani

Nicky Katt

Marcel Ophuls

James Foley

Loni Anderson

Richard Lewis

Shelley Duvall

Denis Arndt

Loretta Swit

Alf Clausen

Tom Arnold

Malcolm-Jamal Warner

Pauline Collins

Sally Kirkland

Udo Kier

Mel Brooks

John Williams

Bruce Willis

Michelle Trachtenberg

Dick van Dyke

Ian McKellen

William Shatner

Charlie Kirk

Quincy Jones

Joe Camp

Michael Culver

Kris Kristofferson

Gena Rowlands

Teri Garr

Joyce Randolph

James Earl Jones

Maggie Smith

Shelley Duvall

David Lynch

Roger Corman

Dabney Coleman

Donald Sutherland

Gene Hackman

YES

By the end of 2026

By October 1st 2026

By July 1st 2026

By April 1st 2026

By the end of 2025

By July 1st 2025

NO

YES

2027-2029

2030 or later

NO