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Prediction markets for Alex

Will Apple VP of Finance Alex Roman receive any legal penalty for “lying under oath"?

May 1, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:04 AM

15.77%chance

242953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2311

433

Will "Update on the Alex Bores campaign" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 27, 8:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

3.25%chance

62931

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3885

802

Alex Honnold fails to climb safely through 2035

Jun 6, 11:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

22.22%chance

262046

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1334

835

Alex from PWF Stock (Permanent)

Nov 16, 4:30 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

311343

OptionProbability

NO

YES

722

546

Will "Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 20, 5:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.7%chance

41225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1584

928

Will Alex Honnold live to the age of 50?

Aug 31, 7:02 PMAug 17, 10:59 PM

75%chance

231113

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1273

885

Any charges filed against the Border Patrol agent who shot and killed Alex Pretti? (Jan 24, Minneapolis)

Jan 24, 5:30 PMDec 31, 5:28 PM

231099

OptionProbability

No Charges

Manslaughter

Other / Lesser Charges

Civil Rights Violation

Murder

53

36

24

17

12

Will Alex Honnold ever stop doing free-solo ascents?

Jan 22, 12:54 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

62.48%chance

25947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

739

John McTone (Alex) Stock

Mar 3, 12:56 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.16%chance

16884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

979

Will Alex Radu find a sponsor for Disposition (or any other YSWS) by the end of November 2026?

Sep 23, 1:10 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

2.7%chance

2532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

600

17

Will anyone be prosecuted for the murder of Alex Pretti by the end of 2027?

Feb 23, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.71%chance

370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

59

Will Alex Zhu achieve at least Stage7 jhana by EOY2029?

Jul 22, 10:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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