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Prediction markets for Alex

Will any one of the ICE members involved in the shooting of Alex Pretti face any consequences at all?

Jan 24, 6:29 PMFeb 23, 6:17 PM

25.17%chance

35854274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1724

580

Will Alex Jones start a new media venture within 2 years of Infowars being shut down?

Jun 29, 5:51 AMJul 7, 4:59 AM

57.94%chance

1317379

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1242

901

Will Alex Bores be the 2026 Democratic candidate for NY-12?

Oct 20, 2:38 PMNov 6, 11:59 PM

28.47%chance

266897

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3541

2327

Will Apple VP of Finance Alex Roman receive any legal penalty for “lying under oath"?

May 1, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:04 AM

23.16%chance

232453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1822

549

Will Alex get into a high tier UC

Dec 15, 10:40 AMJun 30, 10:39 AM

60.23%chance

152192

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

4

Alex Honnold fails to climb safely through 2035

Jun 6, 11:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

22.22%chance

262046

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1334

835

Alex from PWF Stock (Permanent)

Nov 16, 4:30 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

311343

OptionProbability

NO

YES

722

546

Will Alex Honnold ever stop doing free-solo ascents?

Jan 22, 12:54 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

65.83%chance

24897

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

1089

John McTone (Alex) Stock

Mar 3, 12:56 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.16%chance

16884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

979

Will Alex Honnold live to the age of 50?

Aug 31, 7:02 PMAug 17, 10:59 PM

70.42%chance

22813

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

954

Will Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross still be reporting to Alex Wang in June 2026?

Jun 20, 1:12 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

36.99%chance

8525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

975

Will "Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 20, 5:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.22%chance

2500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

936

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