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Prediction markets for Alex

Will Alex Jones start a new media venture within 2 years of Infowars being shut down?

Jun 29, 5:51 AMJul 7, 4:59 AM

80.94%chance

1718579

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2180

513

AI races: Will Alex Bores be the 2026 Democratic candidate for NY-12?

Oct 20, 2:38 PMNov 6, 11:59 PM

46.37%chance

4410667

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13458

5749

Will "Update on the Alex Bores campaign" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 27, 8:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

3.25%chance

62931

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3885

802

Will Apple VP of Finance Alex Roman receive any legal penalty for “lying under oath"?

May 1, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:04 AM

23.16%chance

232453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1822

549

Alex Honnold fails to climb safely through 2035

Jun 6, 11:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

22.22%chance

262046

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1334

835

Alex from PWF Stock (Permanent)

Nov 16, 4:30 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

311343

OptionProbability

NO

YES

722

546

Will Alex Honnold ever stop doing free-solo ascents?

Jan 22, 12:54 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

65.83%chance

24897

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

1089

John McTone (Alex) Stock

Mar 3, 12:56 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.16%chance

16884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

979

Will the ICE agents who shot Alex Pretti be charged in any federal court?

Jan 26, 4:10 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

11.62%chance

17828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

276

36

Will Alex Honnold live to the age of 50?

Aug 31, 7:02 PMAug 17, 10:59 PM

70.42%chance

22813

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

954

Will "Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 20, 5:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.98%chance

3575

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

934

Will Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross still be reporting to Alex Wang in June 2026?

Jun 20, 1:12 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

36.99%chance

8525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

975

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