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Top stories

Apple Discusses Using Google Gemini to Overhaul Siri

Apple Discusses Using Google Gemini to Overhaul Siri

Authors

70

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Alexa

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.1%chance

194280263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10838

9495

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Mar 18, 6:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

1.63%chance

348175802

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15298

200

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.02%chance

10841949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11019

9048

Will Amazon release a version of Alexa with GPT4-level intelligence by the end of 2025?

Jul 30, 5:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.78%chance

10116122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1351

521

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

10913611

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2950

638

Will GPT-4 be integrated into mainstream virtual assistant technologies (Alexa or Siri), by 2025?

Jan 15, 2:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.53%chance

514717

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2230

357

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) become president of the United States before she turns 70?

Mar 27, 5:55 PMOct 14, 3:59 AM

16.66%chance

292574

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1971

1967

Will AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ever run for president?

Jan 16, 9:59 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

74.52%chance

321918

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1161

928

Which incumbent voice assistant will be first to incorporate an LLM?

Apr 5, 11:09 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

141013

OptionProbability

Google Assistant

Siri

Cortana

Alexa

80

11

8

2

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

893

Who will win the 2026 House election in NY-10?

Oct 29, 6:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7289

OptionProbability

Brad Lander

Dan Goldman

Other

Alexa Aviles

Yuh-Line Niou

Cameron Kasky

51

27

7

6

6

3

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

988

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