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Prediction markets for Alibaba Qwen

Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date

Aug 8, 7:50 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

6022887

OptionProbability

Before January 2027

Before February 2027

Before March 2027

Before December 2026

Before November 2026

Before September 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

Before January 2026

Before February 2026

Before March 2026

Before April 2026

Before May 2026

Before June 2026

Before July 2026

Before August 2026

Before September 2026

Before October 2026

99

99

99

93

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?

Nov 27, 9:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

215995

OptionProbability

Moonshot (Kimi)

Baidu (Ernie)

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google

Alibaba (Qwen)

DeepSeek

Z.ai

Mistral

Thinking Machines Lab

Nvidia

Cohere (Command R+)

Reka AI

NexusFlow (Athene)

01 AI (Yi)

AI21 Labs (Jamba)

Safe Superintelligence / SSI

100

100

100

100

100

62

58

41

39

36

17

9

5

4

4

4

2

Which model family will rule the LMSYS Arena in 2026?

Dec 28, 11:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

104205

OptionProbability

Gemini (Google)

Claude (Anthropic)

Kimi (Moonshot)

DeepSeek

Llama (Meta)

Grok (xAI)

Qwen (Alibaba)

GPT (OpenAI)

Mistral (Mistral AI)

Test

69

19

9

5

5

5

5

4

4

0

2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)

Jul 24, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.67%chance

112450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3168

2299

Will Qwen be the top small open model (4B-40B) on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at the end of 2026?

Oct 1, 8:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.95%chance

72112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2206

453

Qwen 3.9+ (Alibaba Qwen) release date

Aug 31, 2:57 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

122094

OptionProbability

Before 2026-12-01

Before 2026-11-01

Before 2026-09-11

Before 2026-09-21

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-10-11

Before 2026-10-21

97

1

0

0

0

0

0

Will Alibaba release any Qwen 4 model before November 09, 2026?

Nov 2, 8:40 AMNov 8, 11:00 PM

2.97%chance

211525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

571

18

Will Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026?

Jan 20, 2:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.15%chance

10392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

152

66

Will Alibaba publish open weights for a Qwen 4 model on Hugging Face by November 25, 2026?

Oct 24, 9:54 PMNov 25, 11:59 PM

60.77%chance

9348

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

64

Will the top Chinese AI model exceed the top US AI model before 2028?

Jun 30, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.88%chance

7248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

174

58

Which company will have the top model on OpenRouter in December 2026?

Jun 24, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7107

OptionProbability

DeepSeek

Zhipu / Z.ai

Other (any company not listed above)

Xiaomi

Google

Alibaba (Qwen)

MiniMax

Tencent

Moonshot AI

Anthropic

OpenAI

StepFun

25

9

9

8

7

7

7

7

7

5

5

5

Which LLM Maker will hold the top Safety Score for Spiral-Bench on https://eqbench.com/spiral-bench.html on Jan1, 2027?

Jan 6, 7:30 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

160

OptionProbability

Antropic (E.g. Claude series)

OpenAI (E.g. ChatGPT series)

Moonshot AI (E.g. Kimi K series)

Google (E.g. Gemini series)

X.AI (E.g. Grok Series)

Alibaba (E.g. Qwen series)

Mistral AI (E.g. Mistral series)

DeepSeek (E.g. deepseek series)

Other

34

31

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

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