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Prediction markets for All

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

25.29%chance

155163135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1655

638

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

15.94%chance

15970513

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2206

1432

Will all 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 8:20 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

23.17%chance

9932204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

928

Is attention all you need? (transformers SOTA in 2027)

Nov 16, 7:02 PMJan 31, 11:30 PM

64.28%chance

12925312

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4316

3065

Will Mamdani stop implementing policies that require all children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age?

Nov 28, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3121224

OptionProbability

NO

Other

YES

Only YES and NO are the main outcomes. All other options would not affect the main YES or NO outcomes.

97

2

1

1

Will Mexico still host all of the planned FIFA World Cup games this year?

Feb 25, 3:58 AMJul 20, 10:59 PM

92.73%chance

6513602

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17398

9289

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

28.82%chance

5910001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5814

4759

Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2030?

Mar 14, 9:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

3.95%chance

549062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2160

902

What will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?

Aug 7, 10:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

97980

OptionProbability

Very Positive

Mixed

Mostly Positive

Overwhelmingly Positive

Mostly Negative

Very Negative

Overwhelmingly Negative

26

23

21

14

9

5

2

Will AI wipe out all biological life on Earth before 2100?

Apr 7, 2:22 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.8%chance

345924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2398

778

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

454104

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

What will be the log change in bitcoin's market share among all currencies between 2023 and 2100? (M3000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:50 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

66.3%chance

72461

OptionProbability

NO

YES

4576

2499

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