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Prediction markets for All

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

24.9%chance

153161899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1673

632

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

18.68%chance

15870411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1902

1495

UK gov accepts all 47 Fingleton nuclear review recommendations by Q1 2026?

Nov 29, 7:47 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

17.55%chance

3136474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15558

5160

Will all 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 8:20 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

25.98%chance

9331314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

975

966

Is attention all you need? (transformers SOTA in 2027)

Nov 16, 7:02 PMJan 31, 11:30 PM

64.28%chance

12925312

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4316

3065

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

28.82%chance

5910001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5814

4759

Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2030?

Mar 14, 9:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

3.95%chance

549062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2160

902

What will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?

Aug 7, 10:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

97980

OptionProbability

Very Positive

Mixed

Mostly Positive

Overwhelmingly Positive

Mostly Negative

Very Negative

Overwhelmingly Negative

26

23

21

14

9

5

2

Will AI wipe out all biological life on Earth before 2100?

Apr 7, 2:22 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6%chance

315805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3000

734

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

444082

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

What will be the log change in bitcoin's market share among all currencies between 2023 and 2100? (M3000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:50 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

66.3%chance

72461

OptionProbability

NO

YES

4576

2499

Springboks vs All Blacks 2026: Who will win the 4-Test Series?

Feb 25, 8:51 PMAug 21, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Springboks (South Africa) win more Tests than NZ

All Blacks (New Zealand) win more Tests than SA

Series Shared / Drawn (Wins are equal)

33

33

33

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