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Prediction markets for All Bets on China

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.46%chance

2112898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13764

3641

Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2026?

Apr 1, 3:41 PMApr 8, 9:59 PM

42.56%chance

405443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

912

Will Trump threaten to cancel AUKUS before 2029?

Feb 7, 8:18 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

64.89%chance

122597

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1360

736

Will China have an economic recession induced by overcapacity before EOY 2030?

Aug 17, 6:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.66%chance

91625

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1383

820

[Humanoid Bots] Will the USA (or China) be the key player?

Mar 6, 10:42 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

29.14%chance

181069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1683

407

What is the next speculative bubble to happen no longer than December 2029?

Jul 29, 9:45 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

131015

OptionProbability

Other bubble

NO BUBBLE

Virtual reality/artificial reality

Crypto

Green commodities (copper, lithium, nickel...)

Space exploration

U.S. Real Estate

Other G7 Real Estate

Nuclear energy

India

Mexico

China

Ukraine

Russia

Superconductors

Biotech

Weight-loss drugs

Self-driving cars

EVs and batteries

United States

Japan

Europe

South America

Southeast Asia

Oil and fossil fuels

Carbon capture

Emerging market Real Estate

Defense

Everything bubble

50

15

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?

May 6, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.73%chance

18430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1147

1002

If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)

Dec 2, 7:02 PMDec 30, 6:53 PM

59.06%chance

4301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

833

Who will be the next paramount leader of China?

Mar 2, 5:54 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

16300

OptionProbability

Other

Wang Yang

Ding Xuexiang

Li Qiang

Xi Jinping

Chen Jining

Cai Qi

Wang Huning

Wang Yi

No one

Huang Kunming

Li Xi

Hu Chunhua

Chen Min'er

41

14

13

6

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

Will Gary Marcus be accurate on at least 50% of his predictions on AI in 2029?

Jun 29, 8:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.41%chance

11167

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2027? (Tumbles Judgement)

Jun 19, 10:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.47%chance

414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

95

Should Tumbles bet a bunch of mana on China invading Taiwan? Or repay debts?

Jan 4, 10:30 PM

270

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