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Prediction markets for All Country World Index

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

5.2%chance

928379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2389

1500

Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?

Jun 20, 10:38 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

44.34%chance

344924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

892

By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?

Mar 31, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.42%chance

12860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10622

9739

Will armed conflict break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea by December 31, 2026?

Jan 21, 6:19 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

8.63%chance

7448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

325

31

Will the United States become a dictatorship by 2100?

Mar 24, 3:56 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

27.69%chance

15297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

178

Will 40% of world’s population or more live in authoritarian regimes before 2030?

Feb 16, 7:01 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

81.68%chance

7150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

298

117

Will half of the world’s population or more live in democracies before 2030?

Feb 16, 6:34 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

20.5%chance

6120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

240

139

What will the UK's RSF World Press Freedom Index score be for 2034 if the PM after the next GE is Labour?

Sep 17, 3:07 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

1100

OptionProbability

70 ≤ score < 80

80 ≤ score < 90

90 ≤ score ≤ 100

60 ≤ score < 70

0 ≤ score < 10

10 ≤ score < 20

20 ≤ score < 30

30 ≤ score < 40

40 ≤ score < 50

50 ≤ score < 60

30

28

14

7

3

3

3

3

3

3

What will the UK's RSF World Press Freedom Index score be for 2034 if the PM after the next GE is Reform?

Sep 17, 3:07 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

186

OptionProbability

70 ≤ score < 80

80 ≤ score < 90

90 ≤ score ≤ 100

60 ≤ score < 70

0 ≤ score < 10

10 ≤ score < 20

20 ≤ score < 30

30 ≤ score < 40

40 ≤ score < 50

50 ≤ score < 60

27

25

13

12

4

4

4

4

4

4

What will the UK's RSF World Press Freedom Index score be for 2034 if the PM after the next GE is Conservatives?

Sep 17, 3:07 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

154

OptionProbability

70 ≤ score < 80

80 ≤ score < 90

60 ≤ score < 70

90 ≤ score ≤ 100

0 ≤ score < 10

10 ≤ score < 20

20 ≤ score < 30

30 ≤ score < 40

40 ≤ score < 50

50 ≤ score < 60

25

24

9

9

5

5

5

5

5

5

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