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Prediction markets for All Hands AI

Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?

Mar 16, 5:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

83.64%chance

28025020

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4192

1892

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

Dec 27, 8:14 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

80.14%chance

6116884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2008

498

Will I believe 2025 is a bigger news year than 2024?

Jan 4, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64.52%chance

4515811

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11214

9228

When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?

Sep 23, 4:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8215169

OptionProbability

2025 Jan - 2027 Jan

2027 Jan - 2030 Jan

2030 Jan or later

2023 Jan - 2025 Jan

49

30

20

1

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.52%chance

3412373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19679

5082

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

Apr 26, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

84%chance

14011901

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2670

1441

Next year will I think that AI is better than me at math?

Dec 21, 4:35 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

66.82%chance

282214

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1419

705

Will there be a shortage of IT workers by the end of 2030?

Dec 24, 3:21 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

35%chance

191587

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

900

Will AI customer phone lines be normal by 2027?

Jun 14, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.42%chance

351342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

928

Will a fully AI generated osu! beatmap make it to the ranked section by the end of 2025?

Sep 20, 6:06 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

39.5%chance

5371

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

808

Will I think that a model or service I try is good enough to write my blog from my notes before the end of the year?

Feb 20, 8:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.12%chance

7195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1172

853

Will "Catching AIs red-handed" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Nov 20, 11:51 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.19%chance

325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

92

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