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Prediction markets for All In

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

28.32%chance

152161499

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1524

686

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

14.99%chance

14969486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2334

1409

Will any one of the ICE members involved in the shooting of Alex Pretti face any consequences at all?

Jan 24, 6:29 PMFeb 23, 6:17 PM

25.29%chance

36856552

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1719

582

Is attention all you need? (transformers SOTA in 2027)

Nov 16, 7:02 PMJan 31, 11:30 PM

64.28%chance

12925312

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4316

3065

Will Mamdani stop implementing policies that require all children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age?

Nov 28, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3121224

OptionProbability

NO

Other

YES

Only YES and NO are the main outcomes. All other options would not affect the main YES or NO outcomes.

97

2

1

1

Will a single company in S&P 500 have a larger market cap than all other S&P 500 companies combined before 2035?

Jun 15, 7:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

12.72%chance

2510433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2619

382

What will be the log change in bitcoin's market share among all currencies between 2023 and 2100? (M3000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:50 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

66.3%chance

72461

OptionProbability

NO

YES

4576

2499

Will AMD have a higher market share of CPUs (all CPUs) than Intel in Q1 2030?

Feb 3, 1:24 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

69.1%chance

171823

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1634

367

Reform UK, French National Rally, and AfD all in power simultaneously this decade?

Sep 18, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.44%chance

41265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

265

38

Will a federal moratorium on ~all state level AI regulation be in place at any point before 2030?

Sep 12, 8:55 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.93%chance

5550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

717

On May 1st 2029 will the highest grossing movie of all time in the USA be a Star Wars film?

Jan 17, 5:10 PMMay 2, 3:59 AM

38.1%chance

16529

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1107

778

The legal free-for-all that characterized the first few years of the AI boom will be definitively over in 2026

Jan 2, 7:40 AMJan 6, 7:59 AM

55.62%chance

5325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

893

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