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Prediction markets for All In

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

27.9%chance

155163363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

679

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

68.42%chance

22181948

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3157

738

Will I think all AI hell broke loose in 2026?

Mar 29, 11:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.13%chance

18255981

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2629

1846

Is attention all you need? (transformers SOTA in 2027)

Nov 16, 7:02 PMJan 31, 11:30 PM

96.36%chance

14343501

OptionVotes

NO

YES

19512

941

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.63%chance

2733820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24158

4139

Will Mamdani stop implementing policies that require all children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age?

Nov 28, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3121224

OptionProbability

NO

Other

YES

Only YES and NO are the main outcomes. All other options would not affect the main YES or NO outcomes.

97

2

1

1

What will be the log change in bitcoin's market share among all currencies between 2023 and 2100? (M3000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:50 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.46%chance

82561

OptionProbability

NO

YES

4387

2599

Will AMD have a higher market share of CPUs (all CPUs) than Intel in Q1 2030?

Feb 3, 1:24 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

69.1%chance

171823

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1634

367

In 2028, will a commercial AI be able to play almost all computer games at human level with zero-shot computer use?

Sep 13, 10:29 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

41.17%chance

11687

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

837

On May 1st 2029 will the highest grossing movie of all time in the USA be a Star Wars film?

Jan 17, 5:10 PMMay 2, 3:59 AM

38.1%chance

16529

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1107

778

The legal free-for-all that characterized the first few years of the AI boom will be definitively over in 2026

Jan 2, 7:40 AMJan 6, 7:59 AM

52.92%chance

6475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1060

943

Will Democrats win all 7 ‘swing states’ in the 2028 presidential election?

Sep 7, 12:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

47.57%chance

479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

953

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