All In Podcast News

The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours.

xAI IPO

FrontierMath Tier 1-3 >= 80%

FrontierMath Tier 4 >= 80%

An open millennium prize problem is solved, involving some AI assistance

OpenAI will introduce ads to ChatGPT in some form

ARC-AGI 3 Semi-private >= 50%

SSI will raise >= $1B in a funding round

OpenAI releases GPT-6

Anthropic releases Claude 5

Schmidhuber will complain about people not citing his work properly

OpenAI will announce some kind of hardware product

Zvi will write a blog post mentioning SSI

SSI will have an update listed at https://ssi.inc/updates

Thinking Machines will train and release their own model

Yudkowsky will publish a post on Lesswrong

A Solid Result in FrontierMath: Open Problems is solved by AI

Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.

I will think that computer use has significantly improved since 2025

Jensen Huang continuously CEO of Nvidia through EOY 2026

Dario Amodei will continuously be CEO of Anthropic until the end of the year

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $1T

Ilya Sutskever will continuously be CEO of SSI until the end of the year

Nvidia will outperform the S&P

Microsoft+Google+Amazon+Meta capex will increase by >=30% vs 2025

The METR time horizon will exceed 20 hours

My median ASI timelines will shorten

Anthropic IPO

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 170

There will be federal AI Safety legislation which I think is net positive

Ilya Sutskever will be on a podcast for more than 30 mins

Grok 5 will be released

The METR time horizon will exceed 40 hours

I will think that there has been significant progress towards models which use neuralese/recurrence

SSI will raise >=$10B in a funding round

Google will outperform the S&P

An LLM will beat me at Shogi

I will think that METR time horizon continues to be an important benchmark

There will be clear evidence of egregious scheming in the wild

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $1,000/month.

Epoch AI will estimate that there has been a training run using more than 5e27 FLOP

Any of [OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Anthropic, xAI, Meta] claim to have reached AGI

Anthropic releases Claude 6

There will be an international treaty/agreement centered on AI

My P(doom) at EOY (resolves to %)

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-4

I will meet someone who has an AI companion

I will ride on a tesla robotaxi

An open source model will be released with 5T+ total parameters

SSI will release a product

At least 3 people will do an anti-AI hunger strike

I will think that there have been significant advances in continual learning

An LLM will beat me at chess

The US will allow selling some sort of Blackwell chip to china

Metaculus will predict AGI before 2030

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e25 FLOP

Yann Lecun’s AMI lab will release an open weights model of some kind

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] declare bankruptcy

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] will be acquired

The bubble collapses in devastating fashion

I will think that a Chinese model is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

Chatgpt will write an explicit sex story without jailbreaks

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-5

There will be an AI capabilities pause lasting at least a month involving frontier companies

Thinking machines will post at least 10 blog posts at https://thinkingmachines.ai/blog/

There will be an AI protest involving more than 100k people

AAA with LLM powered NPCs releases on Steam

There will be a credible leak about SSI strategy

I will see a humanoid robot walking around in a non-demo setting

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 185

An open source model will top the Chatbot Arena in the 'text' category

OpenAI IPO

I will think that a model released by Meta is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

Anthropic will release an image/video model

The weights of a closed source model from [OA, XAI, GDM, Anthropic] will be stolen/leaked

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 200

An AGI lab will be fined >= $10B

OpenAI will sell their own chips to external customers

SSI will be valued at >= $100B

Yudkowsky will publish a new book

Anthropic will introduce ads to Claude in some form

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e27 FLOP according to Epoch AI

US unemployment rate reaches 10% due in part to AI

Grok 6 will be released

China will invade Taiwan according to metaculus

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] releases an LLM (general-purpose or code-only) pretrained largely on licensed data

S&P 500 will fall by more than 50%

I will watch a fully AI-generated film lasting at least an hour

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $5T

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $10,000/month.

I will think that SSI has the best coding model in the world for a period of at least a week

S&P 500 will rise by more than 50%

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e26 FLOP

SSI IPO

SSI will be valued at >= $1 T

Joe Biden campaigns actively for Democratic candidates in the 2026 midterms

Joe Biden hosts a political podcast or TV show

Joe Biden becomes a regular political commentator on a major network

Joe Biden holds any formal position in the Democratic Party or a state Democratic Party

Joe Biden launches a new political action committee

Joe Biden runs for POTUS in 2028 (formally files FEC Form 2)

Joe Biden becomes POTUS

safely returns to Earth

Will attempt to say something momentous

Had been into space as of 2023

Right handed

Is a pilot (but not necessarily for the mission)

Have child/ren

military or ex military background

Isn't white

Chinese Citizen

Is the mission commander

Have a PhD

Male

Will step out with their right foot first

Have 2+ bachelors degrees

video recording is available of them falling over on the lunar surface (within 1 year of moonwalk)

Will attempt to say something momentous, and it's generally considered not to have been momentous 12 months after landing

Will attempt to say something momentous, and it's generally considered so 12 months after landing

Will be recorded (e.g. interview, podcast transcript) dissing moon landing hoaxers, either before or within 12 months of moonwalk

Will have a nickname that doesn't directly derive from their real name (eg Buzz)

Is 68 inches or taller

is 50 years old or older (at time of moonwalk)

Born in a state that majority voted for Trump in 2024 election

Films a tiktok (or similar short format film) on the lunar surface featuring at least some dancing (inside the lander counts) (video is available within 1 year of moonwalk)

American citizen

First moon-words will be a joke (e.g. "oh, did I leave the oven on?" or "hey i can see my house from up here!" or even "oh wow there's an alien life form waving at me!")

No tertiary qualification (honorary degrees don't count)

Will not be a single person; two or more people will take the first step (almost) simultaneously

Christian

Expressed doubt on whether the Apollo landings happened (digging up an embarrassing tweet from when they were 13 counts)

bald

has some kind of neural implant

is 30 years old or younger (at time of moonwalk)

Will be recorded attempting a backflip on the lunar surface (video is available within 1 year of moonwalk)

Ginger

Take a nicotine antagonist like Varenicline, Bupropion or Nortriptyline

Follow ChatGPT's advice: https://chatgpt.com/share/67486f18-6240-8013-8944-65759aafd2a7

Work with a professional

Replace Habit With Heavy Exercise

Altoids Smalls And Cold Water

Skiing

Going to Horse Races

Sailing

Mountains

Tennis

Snowboarding

Having more than 5 kids

Captcha

Using generative AI

Appearing on the JRE podcast

Environmental activists

Christmas lights up after the New Year

Using Food Delivery Apps

Hunting

Starbucks

Prediction markets

NO

SCOTUS rules against DTJ on tariffs

SCOTUS rules against DJT on 14th amend

Sir Keir Starmer resigns

New dance sweeps nation

Alberta separation referendum fails in landslide

Trump suggests just printing money

PM Carney gets majority gov't of 3 or more

Trump sincerely proposes himself on Rushmore

Nobel prize goes to US-led team — but not Trump

Netanyahu loses election but gets pardon

Full-length AI movie goes viral

Trump proposes 'Trump amendment'

Deportation camp set up in Africa

Maduro seeks exile in Russia

Barron Trump does podcast

Justice Thomas retires before midterms

Hegseth replaced by Driscoll

Pro-Trump coup in Greenland

USMCA treaty torn up

Fuentes speaks at CPAC

Erika Kirk put in cabinet

JD and Usha split up

Bessent made chair of Fed

Will she be involved in national media coverage or controversy within 12 months?

She will release at least one book

She will run for political office in the next 2/3 years

She will take Charlie’s place in public debates and public appearances.

NO

He will have a podcast.

Write a book

He will have an online streaming show not associated with a linear TV network.

NO

YES