OptionVotes
YES
NO
3835
522
6043
800
OptionProbability
Above 1,000,000
750,000 - 1,000,000
500,000 - 749,999
Below 50,000
50,000 - 99,999
100,000 - 199,999
200,000 - 499,999
46
32
17
1
Because a human directed it to do so
an open source model
A proprietary model
A rogue AI agent acting autonomously
A cyber-physical system malfunction
Military system error
A combination of multiple models
Source unknown/untraceable
an openAI model
Biological agent synthesis/release
Financial system collapse
Due to poor resource allocation (i.e. the AI is responsible for, and fails to continue medicine/food/water stability to a place where human decisionmaking previously successfully did)
A Google model
an Anthropic model
Infrastructure/power grid failure
Accidental release of research code
A nation-state model
Automated social manipulation/misinformation
A Meta model
A Microsoft model
62
49
47
45
41
30
28
26
21
125
80
100