All Stars News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

The US leaves the World Health Organization

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

New James Bond actor is presented

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

Approval < 35%

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

trump gets hospitalized

A new supreme court justice appointed

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Fair elections in 2028

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

USA experiences a recession.

Vances have another kid

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Dow rises above 65,000

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

US Invasion of any North/South American country

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

US national bitcoin reserve created

Trump visits Africa

Congress overrides a presidential veto

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

McDonald's reopens in Russia

A major war in Asia occurs

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Joe Biden dies

Trump says a racial slur

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

Trump and Obama shake hands

Tesla

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump announces he is tired of winning

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

New national park created

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Repeal obamacare

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

The department of education gets desolved

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Constitutional Amendment

Anthony Fauci is indicted

JD Vance elected President

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

War is declared against another nation

10% fewer government agencies

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

55 or more Republican senate seats

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Trump gets covid (again)

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Approval < 25%

American Manned Lunar Landing

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Trump gets shot

54 or more Republican senate seats

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump dies

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Record level unemployment

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Another pandemic

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump runs for a third term

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Cannabis is federally legalized

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump is assassinated

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Trump loses the fake tan

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Trump is seen shirtless

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Starship lands on Mars

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

"covfefe" posted again

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Constitutional Amendment

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump and Melania divorce

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

New US national anthem

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

YES

NO

YES

YES

Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min

Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water

Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour

Use tap water instead of fancy RO water

put butter into it

Toast the bread

Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need

Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)

Half yeast

Bake it with your best friend.

Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread

Bake for 5 more minutes

Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake

Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.

Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast

Serve the bread hot

Do a second rise

Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter

don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread

Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance

Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.

3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour

Use sourdough instead of yeast

Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.

Make banana bread

Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top

Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞

Add garlic

Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".

Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option

put ketchup and cheese on it

Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)

Add slurs to it

Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.

Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.

Brush on an egg wash

Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread

Make the bread taste good

Bake for 15 more minutes

Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.

If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.

Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread

Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)

Watch the video

Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video

Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread

Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h

Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face

Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0

Throw the bread at a telescope

Cut bread into loaves before serving

Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving

Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you

Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.

Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference

Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix

Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)

Taste the bread

Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour

Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.

Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)

While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana

Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency

Use a convection oven/setting

Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder

Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug

Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.

Only use tap water from specifically New York City

Make the bread great again

Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)

Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread

Make the bread edible then throw it in

Drink vodka while eating the bread

Do FOLDED

Quit Manifold into the bread.

Kill the bread into Manifold.

Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.

Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.

Add a tablespoon of sugar

Bake one more minute

replace 10% of flour with farina bona

Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)

Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.

Increase water by 50 g

Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread

Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread

Wear a suit while baking the cake.

Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread

Bake for 5 fewer minutes

Replace salt with sugar

Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon

A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.

Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran

Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.

Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.

Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.

Strawberry jelly filling

Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)

Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price

Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.

Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture

Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.

Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.

Make all of the ingredients from scratch.

Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.

Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.

Improve the bread

Quadruple salt

Bake your social security number into it.

Bake one fewer minute

Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it

Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.

Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.

Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating

Only buy ingredients from 7/11.

Test/filter the water for heavy metals

Eat the bread in front of the White House.

Implement all options that resolved NO

Make the bread inedible then throw it out.

Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump

Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump

Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.

Add caffeine to the bread

Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.

make the bread bounce

Implementing every element listed below.

Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.

Just make donuts instead

Bake it in an easy bake kids oven

Use a plastic baking sheet.

Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold

Double oven temperature

Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.

Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.

Light it on fire with birthday candles.

Bake it with a microwave

Halve oven temperature

Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold

Step on it

it needs more salt

Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it

Bake America Great Again

Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available

Sacrifice a lamb

Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice

Use lemonade instead of water.

Bake in a cat and a dog

Explode it:

5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand

say 6 7 67 times before making the bread

Take a fat dump in the dough

Sit in dough 24 hrs

Replace flour with flowers

Let dough sit 24 hrs

Mix half sodium/potassium chloride

Add 2g? of baking soda

Bake in rectangular tin

Add 50g vital wheat gluten

double yeast

halve salt

Double salt

Add 2tsp olive oil

Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait

Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through

Do not mix salt and yeast in water together

Autolyse 20 minutes

Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge

Think positive thoughts before tasting

Put fork in microwave

Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread

Add 2tbsp vanilla extract

Play classical music while baking

Add a pinch of sugar

Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven

Eat the bread with friends

Bake vegimite into it.

Bake vodka into it

Bake it in the country you were born in.

Let dough sit 48 hrs

Resolve this option YES while eating the bread

Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket

Eat the bread over the course of a week.

Use 50% whole grain flour

Bake the bread with love

Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose

Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)

More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.

Resolve this option NO while eating the bread

Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)

Add 50g sugar

Add 50g honey

Swap 200ml water for milk

Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.

Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content

Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump

Add banana

YES

YES

NO

NO

2040+

2025-2029

2030-2034

Alex Saar

Stephon Castle

Donovan Clingan

Matas Buzelis

Rob Dillingham