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Prediction markets for AlphaFold

Will a drug designed with significant contribution from an AlphaFold-like system pass a Phase I trial by end of 2025?

Sep 6, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

67.64%chance

8114453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1446

692

When will AlphaFold 4 be announced?

May 18, 12:39 PMJan 25, 10:59 PM

274536

OptionProbability

2026.14-2026.38

2026.38-2026.62

2025.91-2026.14

2026.62-2026.85

2026.85-2027.09

2027.09-2027.32

2027.32-2027.56

2027.56-2027.79

2027.79-2028.03

2028.03-2028.26

2024.5-2024.73

2024.73-2024.97

2024.97-2025.2

2025.2-2025.44

2025.44-2025.67

2025.67-2025.91

2028.26-2028.49

2028.49-2028.73

2028.73-2028.96

2028.96-2029.2

2029.2-2029.43

2029.43-2029.67

2029.67-2029.9

2029.9-2030.14

2030.14-2030.38

2030.38-2030.61

2030.61-2030.85

2030.85-2031.08

2031.08-2031.32

2031.32-2031.55

2031.55-2031.79

2031.79-2032.02

2032.02-2032.26

2032.26-2032.49

2032.49-2032.72

2032.72-2032.96

2032.96-2033.19

2033.19-2033.43

2033.43-2033.66

2033.66-2033.9

2033.9-2034.13

2034.13-2034.37

2034.37-2034.61

2034.61-2034.84

2034.84-2035.08

2035.08-2035.31

2035.31-2035.55

2035.55-2035.78

2035.78-2036.02

2036.02-2036.235

15

13

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11

6

3

3

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?

Oct 19, 1:07 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

36.86%chance

473297

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1443

1123

Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?

Jun 12, 10:01 PMJan 1, 3:46 AM

71.74%chance

452728

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1712

373

Will Veritasium make a youtube video about AI Alignment or Existential Risks in 2025?

Mar 2, 10:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.01%chance

23664

OptionVotes

YES

NO

354

135

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.46%chance

14587

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

442

Alphafold involved in a SOTA C02 direct air capture method by mid 2026 ?

Jun 2, 8:33 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

35.58%chance

5475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1345

743

In 5 years, will we see "dozens of cures every month as opposed to every few years"?

Jul 11, 2:50 AMJul 11, 3:59 AM

13%chance

10449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

353

142

Will the protein folding problem be essentially solved before 2040?

Mar 17, 1:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.73%chance

18421

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

942

Will Alphafold 4 be announced in 2025?

May 13, 6:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.11%chance

8304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

247

41

Which 2024 AI paper will have the most citations in 2030?

May 12, 4:18 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

390

OptionProbability

Other

Gpt-4 passes the bar exam

Autoregressive Image Generation without Vector Quantization

Accurate structure prediction of biomolecular interactions with AlphaFold 3

HuggingGPT: Solving ai tasks with chatgpt and its friends in hugging face

Lima: Less is more for alignment

35

20

20

10

8

8

How many of these jobs will have a 15% or more drop in employment plausibly attributable to AI by 2031?

Feb 12, 3:22 PMJan 1, 3:22 PM

34.44%chance

876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

191

184

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