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Prediction markets for AlphaZero

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

118369933

OptionProbability

2050 or earlier

2040 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

2027 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

End of 2025 or earlier

20

19

19

10

9

8

4

2

0

0

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

Jul 12, 12:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

44.44%chance

9633262

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1214

260

Do LLMs experience qualia?

Jul 20, 1:12 AMJan 1, 2:08 AM

42.17%chance

897122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

333

216

Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?

Feb 16, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66.1%chance

463672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1464

573

Which chess engine will be the strongest at the end of 2031?

Apr 1, 3:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

262353

OptionProbability

Stockfish

Other

LCZero

KomodoDragon

AlphaZero

a chess engine by kenshin9000

Houdini

66

18

15

0

0

0

0

Will the first AI to get IMO gold cite AlphaZero?

Dec 11, 6:03 AMNov 11, 11:59 PM

63.47%chance

191636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

604

Which chess engine will be the strongest at the end of 2028?

May 1, 7:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

221114

OptionProbability

Stockfish

Other

LCZero

Torch

KomodoDragon

AlphaZero

a chess engine by kenshin9000

Houdini

80

11

5

2

1

1

1

1

Will humans create a SOTA AI model without Multi-Layer Perceptrons by 2029?

May 4, 6:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.43%chance

11712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1414

776

Will a SOTA model be trained with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks by 2029?

May 3, 2:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6.85%chance

16523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

369

27

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

Aug 1, 4:22 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

43.39%chance

146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

97

Do LLMs experience qualia?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMJan 1, 2:08 AM

42%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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