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Prediction markets for ALS

Was Hamas using Al-Shifa as a shield for a command centre?

Oct 30, 5:06 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

86.06%chance

15038818

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2827

800

Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?

Apr 24, 2:46 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

27.3%chance

736025

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2441

2204

Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1?

Jan 14, 10:50 PMJan 15, 4:59 AM

14.4%chance

504152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

959

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark?

Jun 21, 5:30 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

133073

OptionProbability

2026-2027

2028-2029

2030-2031

2032-2033

2034-2035

2036-2037

2038-2039

73

10

4

3

3

3

3

Ahmed al Ahmed awarded Cross of Valour for disarming Bondi shooter by EOY 2026?

Dec 14, 12:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.46%chance

101932

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1664

601

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

994

Will Al Gore make it to age 95?

Nov 10, 8:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

18.68%chance

13681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

939

Will most digital entertainment be Al generated by 2045?

Feb 6, 6:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.54%chance

27578

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1096

928

Will "Product Alignment is not Superintelligence Al..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 1, 10:53 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.25%chance

4158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

982

Will Russia cease to recognise Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organisation by the end of 2026?

Mar 29, 1:29 PMDec 31, 9:00 PM

25.01%chance

595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

958

Will an antibiotic peptide from Santos-Junior et al 2024 be used to cure a human of an infection before 2035?

Jun 7, 7:07 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

47.87%chance

375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

958

weird al will release a parody of a billboard top 100 song in 2026

Apr 19, 9:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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