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Prediction markets for ALS

Was Hamas using Al-Shifa as a shield for a command centre?

Oct 30, 5:06 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

89.91%chance

15038718

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3570

700

Will Bashar al-Assad survive 2025?

Dec 7, 11:01 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

97.87%chance

6929582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7549

233

Will Science retract the paper on Wuhan wet market COVID origins (Worobey et al. 2022) by the end of 2025?

Jan 21, 3:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.02%chance

1111068

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10089

119

Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?

Apr 24, 2:46 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

28.3%chance

705905

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2357

2237

Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1?

Jan 14, 10:50 PMJan 15, 4:59 AM

18.07%chance

443696

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

841

Were there at least 200 deaths in the Gaza al-Ahli Arab Hospital explosion?

Oct 21, 4:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

73.45%chance

301595

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1364

679

Before what year will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark?

Jan 7, 4:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

91547

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2035

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2030

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2026

22

21

20

17

14

6

Bashar and Asma al-Assad married through 2025?

Dec 24, 3:46 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

76.03%chance

131476

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1781

561

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

994

Will Al Gore make it to age 95?

Nov 10, 8:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

18.68%chance

13681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

939

Will most digital entertainment be Al generated by 2045?

Feb 6, 6:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.54%chance

27578

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1096

928

Will an antibiotic peptide from Santos-Junior et al 2024 be used to cure a human of an infection before 2035?

Jun 7, 7:07 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

47.87%chance

375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

958

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