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Prediction markets for AM

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.88%chance

726686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1792

1322

How many kilometers am I going to fly this year?

Jan 23, 12:16 PMJan 23, 4:59 PM

82921

OptionProbability

130,000 - 159,999

100,000 - 129,999

70,000 - 99,999

160,000 - 189,999

40,000 - 69,999

190,000 - 200,000

Above 200,000

18,000 - 39,999

Below 18,000

27

21

15

14

9

5

5

3

1

Before I am >40, I will be pregnant (presumably via uterine transplant)

Oct 22, 5:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.73%chance

191465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1608

889

Will Sam Altman know who I am? (5 year time frame)

May 3, 4:40 AMJan 4, 12:59 PM

49.69%chance

371441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

353

Will the "Jesus Christ return >5% Feb 17 12–1 AM" Polymarket ever reach 25% again?

Feb 10, 11:15 PMFeb 17, 1:00 AM

40.17%chance

51318

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1220

819

AI will run a $1bn+ outperforming market hedge fund by 2030 where I am 80% sure that AI is doing ~all functions

May 1, 12:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.82%chance

221268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

945

Is solipsism true such that I am the only observer?

Apr 24, 4:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.41%chance

29921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1370

899

In 2028, will I use a chatbot that can win >25% of Turing test games (defined within) where I am the judge?

Mar 9, 7:59 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

35%chance

10338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

995

If there is a complete societal breakdown in the United States, will I make it to the airport before I am murdered?

Oct 29, 10:05 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

62.29%chance

10265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

109

If I am revived from cryopreservation, will it be bad for me?

Dec 19, 8:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20%chance

9204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

254

103

This market resolves YES if I am still alive at the close date

May 25, 1:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64%chance

799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

111

Will "I am worried about near-term non-LLM AI devel..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 1, 2:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.86%chance

232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

998

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