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Prediction markets for AM

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.76%chance

766811

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1891

1299

Before I am >40, I will be pregnant (presumably via uterine transplant)

Oct 22, 5:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.73%chance

191465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1608

889

Will Sam Altman know who I am? (5 year time frame)

May 3, 4:40 AMJan 4, 12:59 PM

49.69%chance

371441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

353

AI will run a $1bn+ outperforming market hedge fund by 2030 where I am 80% sure that AI is doing ~all functions

May 1, 12:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.51%chance

231278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1068

955

Is solipsism true such that I am the only observer?

Apr 24, 4:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.41%chance

29921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1370

899

What gender(s) will I think I am in 2027?

Feb 18, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6674

OptionProbability

Fem-leaning

Female

Agender

Genderfluid

Non-binary

Masc-leaning

Male

Both male and female

98

87

24

22

19

10

3

2

In 2028, will I use a chatbot that can win >25% of Turing test games (defined within) where I am the judge?

Mar 9, 7:59 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

35%chance

10338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

995

Manifold have a central bank and I am chairman by 2030?

Jun 16, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.85%chance

6253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

287

35

Am I a brain in a vat?

Jun 1, 9:52 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

6.31%chance

9141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

95

What number of Am Law 100 firms will have capitulated to Trump by the 2026 midterms?

Apr 4, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

137

OptionProbability

6-10

11-20

21-30

Less than 5

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

21

15

10

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

Will "I am worried about near-term non-LLM AI devel..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 1, 2:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.86%chance

232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

998

Will "The Darwinian Honeymoon - Why I am not as imp..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 11, 4:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.35%chance

14

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

976

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