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Prediction markets for Am Law 100

[read description] Did Trump have sexual relations with an underage girl? (based on 2025 evidence, according to poll)

Jul 23, 2:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.17%chance

530172037

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1087

920

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

4973782

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

71

16

0

0

0

Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?

May 19, 1:50 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

52.58%chance

365551

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4800

4210

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

52.64%chance

393991

OptionVotes

NO

YES

996

983

Will Twitter lose more than 100 million dollars on labor law-related lawsuits from Musk's Twitter tenure, before 2026?

Mar 9, 10:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.82%chance

362019

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1357

755

FAIR BET Act or similar bill becomes law?

Jul 7, 8:26 PMJan 1, 9:05 PM

26.65%chance

102012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1646

610

Would the $100k H-1B fee apply to intl. students graduating in the U.S. or switching from OPT?

Sep 23, 12:55 PMJan 20, 1:52 PM

36.6%chance

61975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6581

3799

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

Adm. Frank "Mitch" Bradley resigns by end of 2025?

Dec 2, 5:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.81%chance

61609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2609

383

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

Dec 12, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.09%chance

151185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1561

640

Will Social Security become insolvent before 2040?

Jun 28, 4:48 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.57%chance

10851

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1236

809

What number of Am Law 100 firms will have capitulated to Trump by the 2026 midterms?

Apr 4, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

137

OptionProbability

6-10

11-20

21-30

Less than 5

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

21

15

10

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

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