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Prediction markets for Am Law 100

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.87%chance

294110933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11390

5011

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

5380630

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

34

6

0

0

0

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.29%chance

6420347

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

542

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

57.81%chance

404135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1117

894

Would the $100k H-1B fee apply to intl. students graduating in the U.S. or switching from OPT?

Sep 23, 12:55 PMJan 20, 1:52 PM

25.94%chance

83978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5759

103

Will Twitter lose more than 100 million dollars on labor law-related lawsuits from Musk's Twitter tenure, before 2026?

Mar 9, 10:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.82%chance

362019

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1357

755

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

Will Social Security become insolvent before 2040?

Jun 28, 4:48 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.39%chance

141582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1092

916

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 13, 11:16 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

53%chance

14389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1311

189

What number of Am Law 100 firms will have capitulated to Trump by the 2026 midterms?

Apr 4, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

238

OptionProbability

6-10

11-20

21-30

Less than 5

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

22

15

10

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

Will "International Law Cannot Prevent Extinction E..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 15, 9:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.35%chance

26

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

976

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