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Prediction markets for AMA

Will Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027?

Feb 17, 4:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.25%chance

244151415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1955

512

Will Amazon be ruled to have illegally maintained a monopoly in the US before the end of 2029?

Oct 24, 10:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44%chance

191074

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1380

431

Will Amazon become the most valuable company at any point during the 2020s? 🏦📈💰🤑🤖

May 27, 5:20 PMJan 4, 12:59 PM

26.84%chance

15939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1651

606

I can buy a dog poop picking up robot on Amazon before 2028

Aug 3, 5:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

69.19%chance

22594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

962

Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027

Dec 16, 5:23 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

38.74%chance

17460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1116

1014

Will Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft get into pharma in the next 5 years?

Jun 13, 7:39 AMJun 13, 8:59 PM

63.2%chance

13363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

989

989

Valterra Amandelbult PGM 5E+Au Production 2027

Jan 30, 7:51 PMMar 1, 12:00 AM

55.15%chance

3263

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1109

902

Will any Amazon Web Services data center be nationalized by any country by 2030?

Mar 5, 11:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.46%chance

17245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

995

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM

59.5%chance

2232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

825

Masterton, Carterton, and South Wairarapa District Councils amalgamate before 2030?

Oct 20, 3:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

2200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

909

Will Amazon Emissions end at

Mar 8, 9:00 PMDec 31, 8:56 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 16

16 - 17

17 - 18

18 - 19

19 - 20

Above 20

17

17

17

17

17

17

AMA: Austin Chen (Cofounder at Manifold & Manifund)

Jul 24, 12:40 AMJul 24, 6:59 AM

00

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