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Prediction markets for Ambitions

Who will be victorious in the inaugural EU5 campaign?

Nov 13, 5:46 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

1614436

OptionProbability

Will Eden - Italian Empire

Kevin - Scandinavia

Sam - Ottomans

Mark - Egypt

Malte - Russia

Olly - France

Michael - Morocco

Seb - Vijayanagar

Callum - Great Britain

Pavel - Castile N/A

Javier - Aragon

Pete - Milan

Matan - Bohemia

Matt - Wallachia

Sheb - Poland

Sean - Brabant

92

17

8

8

6

5

5

5

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?

Jun 17, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.43%chance

1268673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2709

1883

Will Markus Söder ever be German chancellor?

Jan 29, 3:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.76%chance

205664

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2279

749

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.07%chance

193036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3171

316

Will Andrew Tate ever become president?

Jan 27, 2:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.09%chance

102126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

685

15

Will Trump say Iceland should be a part of the USA before 2029?

Jan 18, 12:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.59%chance

231887

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

79

Will Microsoft release a new smartphone and mobile OS before 2028?

May 1, 1:18 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

21.84%chance

11435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

368

147

Will Netflix’s live action adaptation of One Piece be produced to completion? (12 seasons)

Jan 15, 2:45 PMJan 16, 7:59 AM

22%chance

9188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

228

115

Will Peter McCormack become Mayor of Bedford before 2030?

Jul 16, 10:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.11%chance

2100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

998

Will Steve Fulop run for public office in 2026-2030?

Jun 14, 11:24 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.76%chance

261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

71

Will "An Ambitious Vision for Interpretability" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 6, 7:42 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

Ambitious mechinterp is quite unlikely to confidently assess if AIs are deceptively aligned/dangerous in next 10 years

Nov 11, 7:27 AM

170

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