Ambitions News

Outcome in Iran by end of 2025? [Read description]

Jun 14, 3:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12928674

OptionProbability

Managed escalation

Iran voluntarily gives up nuclear ambitions

Deal

Large-scale war

Iran gets nuke

Who will be victorious in the inaugural EU5 campaign?

Nov 13, 5:46 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

1310431

OptionProbability

Mark - Mamluks

Malte - Muscovy

Matan - Bohemia

Olly - France

Will Eden - Two Sicilies

Kevin - Denmark

Callum - England

Michael - Morocco

Sam - Ottomans

Sheb - Poland

Javier - Aragon

Pavel - Castile N/A

Pete - Milan

Matt - Wallachia

Sean - Brabant

Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?

Jun 17, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.14%chance

1268613

OptionVotes

YES

2769

1875

Why is Donald Trump a threat to Democracy (Top 5 Reasons)

Apr 5, 11:46 PMJan 21, 5:00 AM

586732

OptionProbability

Election Denying

Puts himself before the country

Wants to fill all government positions with loyalists who will do whatever he says, including illegal and unconstitutional actions

Corruption

Attacks on Free Press

Politicization of Justice Department

Threat to Voting Rights

Cultishness

Repeated threats to kill or imprison those who disagree with him politically

Clear ambitions to purge the government of most civil servants

American democracy is fragile

He wants Trumpocracy

He isn't

Immigration Policy

Foreign Policy

Will Markus Söder ever be German chancellor?

Jan 29, 3:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.68%chance

185087

OptionVotes

YES

1826

806

Will Microsoft release a new smartphone and mobile OS before 2028?

May 1, 1:18 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

21.84%chance

11435

OptionVotes

YES

368

147

Will "Sam Altman’s Chip Ambitions Undercut OpenAI’s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Feb 13, 1:32 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

3.05%chance

9399

OptionVotes

YES

516

150

Will Peter McCormack become Mayor of Bedford before 2030?

Jul 16, 10:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.11%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

1002

998

Mustafa Suleyman out of Microsoft by EOY 2028?

Nov 12, 7:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.19%chance

381

OptionVotes

YES

161

Will "The case for more ambitious language model evals" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Feb 15, 3:47 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.31%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

Will "An Ambitious Vision for Interpretability" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 6, 7:42 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

1010

941

Ambitious mechinterp is quite unlikely to confidently assess if AIs are deceptively aligned/dangerous in next 10 years

Nov 11, 7:27 AM

170

Ambitions News

Prediction markets for Ambitions

Prediction markets for Ambitions

Prediction markets for Ambitions

Outcome in Iran by end of 2025? [Read description]

Who will be victorious in the inaugural EU5 campaign?

Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?

Why is Donald Trump a threat to Democracy (Top 5 Reasons)

Will Markus Söder ever be German chancellor?

Will Microsoft release a new smartphone and mobile OS before 2028?

Will "Sam Altman’s Chip Ambitions Undercut OpenAI’s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Will Peter McCormack become Mayor of Bedford before 2030?

Mustafa Suleyman out of Microsoft by EOY 2028?

Will "The case for more ambitious language model evals" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Will "An Ambitious Vision for Interpretability" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Ambitious mechinterp is quite unlikely to confidently assess if AIs are deceptively aligned/dangerous in next 10 years

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