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Prediction markets for Ambitions

Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?

Jun 17, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.43%chance

1268673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2709

1883

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.77%chance

347169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3717

270

Will Markus Söder ever be German chancellor?

Jan 29, 3:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.03%chance

227064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2431

733

Will Elon's Terafab produce a single chip before 2028?

Mar 25, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.78%chance

212033

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1573

636

Will I give birth before age 30?

Mar 9, 3:45 PMApr 16, 2:29 PM

62.48%chance

121171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1291

775

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

16992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

977

Will Peter McCormack become Mayor of Bedford before 2030?

Jul 16, 10:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.07%chance

3300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1198

835

Artemis program lunar landing success discourages chinese moon landing ambitions?

Apr 12, 1:24 AMJan 21, 2:17 AM

16.64%chance

9285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

525

29

WIll Mykhailo Fedorov become the next President of Ukraine?

Jul 19, 8:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.41%chance

5104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

167

60

Will "An Ambitious Vision for Interpretability" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 6, 7:42 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

Will Saudi Aramco Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:04 PMMar 8, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 90

90 - 99

100 - 109

110 - 119

120 - 130

Above 130

17

17

17

17

17

17

Ambitious mechinterp is quite unlikely to confidently assess if AIs are deceptively aligned/dangerous in next 10 years

Nov 11, 7:27 AM

170

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