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American authorities News

    Prediction markets for American authorities

    Yudkowsky & Soares change the book cover | The book is a NYT bestseller

    May 15, 1:06 PMOct 16, 1:02 PM
    7016837

    OptionProbability

    The book cover is NOT changed, the book is a NYT bestseller

    The book cover is NOT changed, the book is NOT a NYT bestseller

    The book cover is changed, the book is a NYT bestseller

    The book cover is changed, the book is NOT a NYT bestseller

    Other

    69

    21

    6

    4

    1

    Who will endorse Yudkowsky and Soares' book?

    May 15, 11:06 AMNov 16, 11:45 AM
    12015894

    OptionProbability

    Max Tegmark

    Vitalik Buterin

    Emmett Shear

    Bruce Schneier

    George Church

    Scott Aaronson

    Daniel Kokotajlo

    Ben Bernanke

    Stephen Fry

    Tim Urban

    Grimes

    Scott Alexander

    A former Fed Chair

    A professor of a Chinese university

    Neel Nanda

    Stuart Russell

    Carl Feynman

    Geoffrey Hinton

    Yoshua Bengio

    Gwern

    Toby Ord

    Ezra Klein

    Geoffrey Irving

    Billy Perrigo

    Dwarkesh Patel

    Manifold

    Nick Bostrom

    Yuval Noah Harari

    Helen Toner

    Kevin Roose

    Vox

    Christine Peterson

    Keach Hagey

    Publishers Weekly

    Bill Gates

    Evan Hubinger

    Joe Rogan

    Patrick McKenzie

    San Francisco Chronicle

    Booklist

    NPR

    Politico

    Kurzgesagt

    Lex Fridman

    David Chalmers

    A former US Secretary of Treasury

    The Economist

    Time

    BBC

    A former US Secretary of Energy

    A former US Secretary of Commerce

    Tucker Carlson

    WIRED

    Gillian Hadfield

    Peter Singer

    A review in The Atlantic

    Telegraph

    The New York Times Book Review

    Peter Norvig

    Any five current members of the UK Parliament

    Rolling Stone

    A former US Secretary of State

    At least five Nobel laureates

    The Guardian

    Ray Kurzweil

    John Schulman

    Matthew Yglesias

    Forbes

    Financial Times

    Bloomberg Businessweek

    Karen Hao

    A New Scientist editorial

    The New Yorker

    Eric Schmidt

    A current US Secretary of Treasury

    IEEE Spectrum

    Vanity Fair

    roon

    A Science editorial

    Elon Musk

    Mustafa Suleyman

    Judea Pearl

    António Guterres

    Foreign Affairs

    Barack Obama

    A Scientific American editorial

    A Nature editorial

    The Washington Post

    Associated Press

    Any five current United States representatives

    The Wall Street Journal

    Anthropic

    JD Vance

    Shane Legg

    Ilya Sutskever

    A current UK prime minister

    Alexandr Wang

    A high-ranking Chinese government official

    A current pope

    Daron Acemoglu

    Reuters

    RFK Jr

    Ivanka Trump

    Narendra Modi

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    Terence Tao

    CNN

    Mr. Beast

    Peter Thiel

    Jimmy Fallon

    Mira Murati

    Richard Sutton

    A current Fed Chair

    Ursula von der Leyen

    OpenAI

    DeepMind

    Demis Hassabis

    Daniela Amodei

    Chris Olah

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Joe Biden

    Dario Amodei

    Any five current United States senators

    Jeff Bezos

    Jensen Huang

    Satya Nadella

    Greg Egan

    A current US Secretary of Energy

    Bill Clinton

    JK Rowling

    John Oliver

    Fox News

    A current US Secretary of Commerce

    A current US Secretary of State

    King Charles

    Noam Chomsky

    Donald J. Trump

    Tim Cook

    Kamala Harris

    Taylor Swift

    Vladimir Putin

    Xi Jinping

    Sam Altman

    Yann LeCun

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    87

    82

    80

    78

    76

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    73

    72

    68

    66

    66

    63

    62

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    60

    58

    55

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    48

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    28

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    26

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    24

    24

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    23

    22

    22

    22

    22

    20

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    20

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    8

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    8

    8

    8

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    7

    7

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    6

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    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    3

    3

    Will the U.S. invoke the TikTok bill against Twitter?

    Mar 26, 1:37 AMJan 21, 5:59 AM
    2.27%chance
    436790

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    3099

    1038

    Will the United States legalize commercial supersonic flight over land before 2026?

    Jul 2, 3:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    88.79%chance
    275473

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    2508

    160

    Which of Project 2025's plans come to fruition?

    Apr 19, 12:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    311652

    OptionProbability

    Gutting the Environmental Protection Agency

    Gutting the US Department of Justice (DOJ)

    Eliminating the Department of Education

    Reducing by more than half the US Department of Justice (DOJ) funding

    Allow criminal prosecutions for the senders and receivers of abortion pills

    abolishing the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

    Eliminating the Department of Commerce

    Dismantling the Department of Homeland Security

    The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services will require that "every state report how many abortions take place, at what gestational age of the child, for what reason, the mother's state of residence, and by what method".

    Dismantling the FBI

    Removing all climate change regulations from 2000 onwards

    Implement a Scripture-based system of government whereby "Christ-ordained civil magistrates" exercise authority over the American public

    90

    57

    33

    24

    22

    18

    13

    8

    8

    6

    4

    4

    TikTok sale announced before 2026?

    Jul 9, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    36%chance
    12787

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    133

    75

    [Metaculus] If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, wil...l Tehran within one year?

    Jul 10, 6:57 PMJan 2, 5:00 AM
    36.8%chance
    4710

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1311

    763

    Will SpaceX pick up and return at least 10 starlink satellites to Earth by mid 2031?

    May 12, 7:11 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
    36.25%chance
    8339

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1194

    869

    My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

    Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM
    57%chance
    9301

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1151

    869

    [Metaculus] Before 2032, will at least $30 billion in new funding be authorized towards US pandemic preparedness?

    Oct 12, 10:19 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM
    59.57%chance
    471

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    130

    93

    Will Tommy Gregory Thompson give up the details of his 500 gold coins and be freed from jail by the end of 2028?

    Jul 6, 11:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    36.89%chance
    453

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    131

    76

    FDA Oversight of laboratory tests will be substantially approved by mid 2026

    Dec 4, 10:56 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
    56.66%chance
    213

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    77

    64

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