OptionVotes
NO
YES
103
97
354
28
1736
576
OptionProbability
Deal with minimal concessions
Unyielding Islamic Regime
Deal with major concessions
Balkanization/long civil war
Military coup (Artesh)
Popular takeover
Venezuela-style puppet state
Voluntary transition of power
43
36
8
6
3
1
+1% - +5%
-14% - -10%
-4% - 0%
-9% - -5%
-15% or lower
+6% - +10%
+11% - +15%
+16% or higher
15
14
9
5
1063
784
111
90
