OptionVotes
NO
YES
103
97
300
33
1736
576
OptionProbability
Unyielding Islamic Regime
Deal with minimal concessions
Deal with major concessions
Military coup (Artesh)
Popular takeover
Balkanization/long civil war
Venezuela-style puppet state
Voluntary transition of power
35
28
26
4
3
2
1
1031
884
+1% - +5%
-14% - -10%
-4% - 0%
-9% - -5%
-15% or lower
+6% - +10%
+11% - +15%
+16% or higher
15
14
9
8
5
111
90
