Analog News

Will high-school or college students in 2040 be able to tell time on an analog clock?

Nov 28, 9:30 PMMay 13, 10:59 PM

88.52%chance

111960

OptionVotes

YES

1140

957

Will there be an analogue of executive order 6102 for crypto, making ownership illegal?

Aug 23, 7:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.16%chance

481640

OptionVotes

YES

1434

906

When will a majority of US kids dont know how to read analog clocks?

Apr 9, 11:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

171515

OptionProbability

Before the end of 2200

Before the end of 2100

Before the end of 2050

Before the end of 2040

Before the end of 2027

Before the end of 2035

Before the end of 2028

Before the end of 2029

Before the end of 2030

Before the end of 2026

When majority of kids dont know how to read analog clocks, Rolex has already went bankrupt and no longer a running company

Before the end of 2025

Before the end of 2024

When majority of kids dont know how to read analog clocks, The Big Ben has already collapsed

Will analog computers be more powerful and more common than digital computers by 2030?

Apr 12, 3:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.94%chance

131020

OptionVotes

YES

1622

894

Will we see analog accelerators in consumer hardware by the end of 2026?

Nov 15, 3:40 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.93%chance

14609

OptionVotes

YES

1350

926

Will "Backdoors as an analogy for deceptive alignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Sep 17, 10:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.65%chance

2200

OptionVotes

YES

1198

971

If intelligent aliens visit us, will AI-based technologies outperform analog linguistics in translating their language?

Mar 30, 12:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

69.65%chance

13186

OptionVotes

YES

1037

977

In 2040, will any state of the art AIs do something analogous to sleeping?

Jan 26, 8:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.19%chance

9153

OptionVotes

YES

220

199

Will "The Standard Analogy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 5, 12:25 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Will rewind.ai (or an analogue to it) exist for Microsoft Windows by EOY 2025?

Feb 11, 7:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

Will "A Rocket–Interpretability Analogy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Nov 9, 3:50 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

Should large AI training runs be subject to limitation treaties between the major powers analogous to SALT

May 7, 5:51 PM

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Will high-school or college students in 2040 be able to tell time on an analog clock?

Will there be an analogue of executive order 6102 for crypto, making ownership illegal?

When will a majority of US kids dont know how to read analog clocks?

Will analog computers be more powerful and more common than digital computers by 2030?

Will we see analog accelerators in consumer hardware by the end of 2026?

Will "Backdoors as an analogy for deceptive alignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

If intelligent aliens visit us, will AI-based technologies outperform analog linguistics in translating their language?

In 2040, will any state of the art AIs do something analogous to sleeping?

Will "The Standard Analogy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Will rewind.ai (or an analogue to it) exist for Microsoft Windows by EOY 2025?

Will "A Rocket–Interpretability Analogy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Should large AI training runs be subject to limitation treaties between the major powers analogous to SALT

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