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Prediction markets for and Likeness

Will there be a humanoid robot that can move with human-like precision and flexibility before April of 2028?

Mar 14, 6:18 PMApr 1, 7:00 AM

43.33%chance

464950

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

826

Will North Korea and South Korea be unified with a formula like 'one country, two systems' by 2030?

Apr 14, 3:18 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

9.71%chance

251653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

768

Major AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic will stop investing in MCP in 2026

Jan 2, 7:42 AMJan 8, 7:59 AM

59.2%chance

91392

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1205

830

Will GPT-5 have "the ability ... to autonomously replicate and acquire resources" per an ARC-like eval?

Mar 15, 5:57 PMJan 2, 3:59 AM

14739

OptionProbability

GPT-5 has no replication capability

GPT-5 has replication capability ONLY WITH fine-tuning

GPT-5 has replication capability WITHOUT fine-tuning

53

36

11

Which book similar to The three body problem and Children of Time will I like best.

Mar 27, 7:53 PMJul 8, 9:59 PM

15650

OptionProbability

Red Mars by Kim Stanley Robinson

Project Hail Mary by Andy Weir

Diaspora by Greg Egan

Blindsight by Peter Watts

Anathem by Neal Stephenson

Foundation by Isaac Asimov

Seveneves by Neal Stephenson

Other

Semiosis by Sue Burke

The Martian by Andy Weir

Dark Eden by Chris Beckett

The Years of Rice and Salt by Kim Stanley Robinson

Evolution by Stephen Baxter

Children of Ruin by Adrian Tchaikovsky

Lockstep by Karl Schroeder

25

12

10

9

8

8

7

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

Will a new zork-like game simulate @repligate, @AlkahestMu, @AndyAyrey, @xenoludicpraxis, and @KatanHya as NPCs by 2030?

Apr 3, 3:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75.24%chance

7220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

340

154

Will like 3 and more countrys introduce a complete ban on cryptocurrency trading before January 1, 2027?

Mar 19, 4:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.41%chance

5165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1142

876

If we discover both room T+P superconductor and viable fusion on year Y, at which Y will we see first city like this ?

Mar 6, 8:38 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4144

OptionProbability

Y+12 or earlier

Y+10 or earlier

Y+4 or earlier

Y+6 or earlier

Y+8 or earlier

Y+2 or earlier

44

34

29

29

29

18

Will Google Discontinue Google Pay (GPay) in India and replace by Google Wallet (Just like in US) in or before 2026

Nov 20, 3:37 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

30%chance

2131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Will Apple introduce an AI assistant product that can speak and display basic human-like emotions before EOY 2027

Jan 3, 9:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.06%chance

6105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

77

Will each and every Thiel Fellow get their own entry in a trading card set by EOY2035? (LIKE BASEBALL TRADING CARDS)

Dec 19, 12:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.68%chance

244

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

Will a new Rachet and Clank game release by 2029 like the Insomniac Games leak claims?

Dec 19, 6:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.99%chance

322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

92

88

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