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Prediction markets for and Likeness

Will there be a humanoid robot that can move with human-like precision and flexibility before April of 2028?

Mar 14, 6:18 PMApr 1, 7:00 AM

41.05%chance

475000

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

876

Major AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic will stop investing in MCP in 2026

Jan 2, 7:42 AMJan 8, 7:59 AM

36.02%chance

172089

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

750

Will North Korea and South Korea be unified with a formula like 'one country, two systems' by 2030?

Apr 14, 3:18 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

10.55%chance

251694

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

706

Will GPT-5 have "the ability ... to autonomously replicate and acquire resources" per an ARC-like eval?

Mar 15, 5:57 PMJan 2, 3:59 AM

14739

OptionProbability

GPT-5 has no replication capability

GPT-5 has replication capability ONLY WITH fine-tuning

GPT-5 has replication capability WITHOUT fine-tuning

53

36

11

Will Coefficient Giving set up LLM agents with org accounts and a remote worker-like interface by 5/18/27?

May 20, 1:17 AMMay 18, 12:00 AM

63.18%chance

4511

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1310

763

Will a game like Vrchat be made with Godot and other game ideas by 2028

Jan 10, 8:29 PMJan 18, 5:59 AM

5304

OptionProbability

by 2028 hytale will launch in open Early access

A game like vrchat will be made with godot and will launch in open Early access by 2028

I make a game by 2028 in OEA

100

50

36

Will a new zork-like game simulate @repligate, @AlkahestMu, @AndyAyrey, @xenoludicpraxis, and @KatanHya as NPCs by 2030?

Apr 3, 3:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75.24%chance

7220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

340

154

Will like 3 and more countrys introduce a complete ban on cryptocurrency trading before January 1, 2027?

Mar 19, 4:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.32%chance

6215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1192

839

If we discover both room T+P superconductor and viable fusion on year Y, at which Y will we see first city like this ?

Mar 6, 8:38 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4144

OptionProbability

Y+12 or earlier

Y+10 or earlier

Y+4 or earlier

Y+6 or earlier

Y+8 or earlier

Y+2 or earlier

44

34

29

29

29

18

Will Google Discontinue Google Pay (GPay) in India and replace by Google Wallet (Just like in US) in or before 2026

Nov 20, 3:37 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

30%chance

2131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Will Apple introduce an AI assistant product that can speak and display basic human-like emotions before EOY 2027

Jan 3, 9:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.06%chance

6105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

77

Will each and every Thiel Fellow get their own entry in a trading card set by EOY2035? (LIKE BASEBALL TRADING CARDS)

Dec 19, 12:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.68%chance

244

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

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