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Prediction markets for and Likeness

Will there be a humanoid robot that can move with human-like precision and flexibility before April of 2028?

Mar 14, 6:18 PMApr 1, 7:00 AM

43.27%chance

454949

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1074

828

Will Spheres, like the one in Las Vegas, become mainstream and be in more than 5 cities by 2026?

Oct 25, 12:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.75%chance

483711

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1693

870

Will North Korea and South Korea be unified with a formula like 'one country, two systems' by 2030?

Apr 14, 3:18 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

10.69%chance

231551

OptionVotes

NO

YES

996

696

Which book similar to The three body problem and Children of Time will I like best.

Mar 27, 7:53 PMJul 8, 9:59 PM

15650

OptionProbability

Red Mars by Kim Stanley Robinson

Project Hail Mary by Andy Weir

Diaspora by Greg Egan

Blindsight by Peter Watts

Anathem by Neal Stephenson

Foundation by Isaac Asimov

Seveneves by Neal Stephenson

Other

Semiosis by Sue Burke

The Martian by Andy Weir

Dark Eden by Chris Beckett

The Years of Rice and Salt by Kim Stanley Robinson

Evolution by Stephen Baxter

Children of Ruin by Adrian Tchaikovsky

Lockstep by Karl Schroeder

25

12

10

9

8

8

7

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

Will GPT-5 have "the ability ... to autonomously replicate and acquire resources" per an ARC-like eval?

Mar 15, 5:57 PMJan 2, 3:59 AM

13534

OptionProbability

GPT-5 has no replication capability

GPT-5 has replication capability ONLY WITH fine-tuning

GPT-5 has replication capability WITHOUT fine-tuning

48

38

15

Will an transformer action AI (like adept.ai) be able to navigate and smoothly click all the "expand all" links to archive an entire Slack channel by 2025? (even if just via OBS Studio)

Feb 20, 7:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.49%chance

15236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

953

Will a new zork-like game simulate @repligate, @AlkahestMu, @AndyAyrey, @xenoludicpraxis, and @KatanHya as NPCs by 2030?

Apr 3, 3:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75.24%chance

7220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

340

154

Will a Cold War like situation erupt between the US and China by 2034?

Feb 18, 1:27 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

79.06%chance

9211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

300

170

Peter Wildeford’s plan for human freedom and prosperity post AGI: more like a detailed plan or a set of frameworks?

Feb 23, 9:55 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

2150

OptionProbability

Set of frameworks and heuristics

Detailed plan

57

43

If we discover both room T+P superconductor and viable fusion on year Y, at which Y will we see first city like this ?

Mar 6, 8:38 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4144

OptionProbability

Y+12 or earlier

Y+10 or earlier

Y+4 or earlier

Y+6 or earlier

Y+8 or earlier

Y+2 or earlier

44

34

29

29

29

18

Will Google Discontinue Google Pay (GPay) in India and replace by Google Wallet (Just like in US) in or before 2026

Nov 20, 3:37 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

30%chance

2131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Will both rapamycin.news and crsociety.org be incorporated into a large language model like Claude or GPT by 2025?

Feb 21, 1:11 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50.99%chance

23

OptionVotes

NO

YES

91

89

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