and Research News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

A major war in Asia occurs

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

The US leaves the World Health Organization

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

"The New Norm" ends

New James Bond actor is presented

Fair elections in 2028

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Approval < 35%

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

A new supreme court justice appointed

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Vances have another kid

USA experiences a recession.

US Invasion of any North/South American country

trump gets hospitalized

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Dow rises above 65,000

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Trump says a racial slur

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Trump and Obama shake hands

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

Trump visits Africa

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

US national bitcoin reserve created

Tesla

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Joe Biden dies

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

10% fewer government agencies

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

New national park created

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Constitutional Amendment

NATO invokes Article 5

Another pandemic

The department of education gets desolved

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Repeal obamacare

JD Vance elected President

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Trump announces he is tired of winning

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

American Manned Lunar Landing

Trump gets covid (again)

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Trump gets shot

Approval < 25%

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

War is declared against another nation

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Trump dies

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Trump runs for a third term

Trump loses the fake tan

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

55 or more Republican senate seats

Record level unemployment

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

south park is canceled/discontinued

Starship lands on Mars

54 or more Republican senate seats

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump is assassinated

Cannabis is federally legalized

Trump and Melania divorce

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

"covfefe" posted again

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

A national ban on gender-affirming care

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Constitutional Amendment

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Anthony Fauci is convicted

New US national anthem

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Other

Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.

AIs will not have utility functions (in the same sense that humans do not), their goals such as they are will be relatively humanlike, and they will be "computerish" and generally weakly motivated compared to humans.

Alignment is not properly solved, but core human values are simple enough that partial alignment techniques can impart these robustly. Despite caring about other things, it is relatively cheap for AGI to satisfy human values.

Eliezer finally listens to Krantz [resolves NO]

Yudkowsky is trying to solve the wrong problem using the wrong methods based on a wrong model of the world derived from poor thinking and fortunately all of his mistakes have failed to cancel out

Humans and human tech (like AI) never reach singularity, and whatever eats our lightcone instead (like aliens) happens to create an "okay" outcome

Multipolar AGI Agents run wild on the internet, hacking/breaking everything, causing untold economic damage but aren't focused enough to manipulate humans to achieve embodiment. In the aftermath, humanity becomes way saner about alignment.

We create a truth economy. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/is-establishing-a-truth-economy-tha?r=S3JhbnR6

Ethics turns out to be a precondition of superintelligence

We make risk-conservative requests to extract alignment-related work out of AI-systems that were boxed prior to becoming superhuman. We somehow manage to achieve a positive feedback-loop in alignment/verification-abilities.

The response to AI advancements or failures makes some governments delay the timelines

AIs make "proof-like" argumentation for why output does/is what we want. We manage to obtain systems that *predict* human evaluations of proof-steps, and we manage to find/test/leverage regularities for when humans *aren't* fooled.

A lot of humans participate in a slow scalable oversight-style system, which is pivotally used/solves alignment enough

Something less inscrutable than matrices works fast enough

Humans become transhuman through other means before AGI happens

The human brain is the perfect arrangement of atoms for a "takeover the world" agent, so AGI has no advantage over us in that task.

Aligned AI is more economically valuable than unaligned AI. The size of this gap and the robustness of alignment techniques required to achieve it scale up with intelligence, so economics naturally encourages solving alignment.

AIs never develop coherent goals

Alignment is unsolvable. AI that cares enough about its goal to destroy humanity is also forced to take it slow trying to align its future self, preventing run-away.

Rolf Nelson's idea that we make precommitment to simulate all possible bad AIs works – and keeps AI in check.

Nick Bostrom's idea (Hail Mary) that AI will preserve humans to trade with possible aliens works

An AI that is not fully superior to humans launches a failed takeover, and the resulting panic convinces the people of the world to unite to stop any future AI development.

Someone at least moderately sane leads a campaign, becomes in charge of a major nation, and starts a secret project with enough resources to solve alignment, because it turns out there's a way to convert resources into alignment progress.

Someone solves agent foundations

Techniques along the lines outlined by Collin Burns turn out to be sufficient for alignment (AIs/AGIs are made truthful enough that they can be used to get us towards full alignment)

Social contagion causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees

Getting things done in Real World is as hard for AGI as it is for humans. AGI needs human help, but aligning humans is as impossible as aligning AIs. Humans and AIs create billions of competing AGIs with just as many goals.

Development and deployment of advanced AI occurs within a secure enclave which can only be interfaced with via a decentralized governance protocol

High-level self-improvement (rewriting code) is intrinsically risky process, so AIs will prefer low level and slow self-improvement (learning), thus AIs collaborating with humans will have advantage. Ends with posthumans ecosystem.

Human consciousness is needed to collapse wave function, and AI can't do it. Thus humans should be preserved and they may require complete friendliness in exchange (or they will be unhappy and produce bad collapses)

Power dynamics stay multi-polar. Partly easy copying of SotA performance, bigger projects need high coordination, and moderate takeoff speed. And "military strike on all society" remains an abysmal strategy for practically all entities.

Nanotech is difficult without experiments, so no mail order AI Grey Goo; Humans will be the main workhorse of AI everywhere. While they will be exploited, this will be like normal life from inside

AGI is never built (indefinite global moratorium)

Valence realism is true. AGI hacks itself to experiencing every possible consciousness and picks the best one (for everyone)

AGI executes a suicide plan that destroys itself and other potential AGIs, but leaves humans in an okay outcome.

Co-operative AI research leads to the training of agents with a form of pro-social concern that generalises to out of distribution agents with hidden utilities, i.e. humans.

Orthogonality Thesis is false.

"Corrigibility" is a bit more mathematically straightforward than was initially presumed, in the sense that we can expect it to occur, and is relatively easy to predict, even under less-than-ideal conditions.

Either the "strong form" of the Orthogonality Thesis is false, or "Goal-directed agents are as tractable as their goals" is true while goal-sets which are most threatening to humanity are relatively intractable.

A concerted effort targets an agent at a capability plateau which is adequate to defer the hard parts of the problem until later. The necessary near-term problems to solve didn't depend on deeply modeling human values.

AI control gets us helpful enough systems without being deadly

Alignment is impossible. Sufficiently smart AIs know this and thus won't improve themselves and won't create successor AIs, but will instead try to prevent existence of smarter AIs, just as smart humans do.

The free market disincentivizes independent superintelligence, and this time the market was more powerful

Hacks like RLHF-ing self-disempowerment into frontier models work long enough to develop better alignment methods, which in turn work long enough to ... etc; we keep ahead of 'alignment escape velocity'

an aligned AGI is built and the aligned AGI prevents the creation of any unaligned AGI.

I've been a good bing 😊

Far more interesting problems to solve than take over the world and THEN solve them. The additional kill all humans step is either not a low-energy one or just by chance doesn't get converged upon.

AI systems good at finding alignment solutions to capable systems (via some solution in the space of alignment solutions, supposing it is non-null, and that we don't have a clear trajectory to get to) have find some solution to alignment.

There’s some cap on the value extractible from the universe and we already got the 20%

SHA3-256: 1f90ecfdd02194d810656cced88229c898d6b6d53a7dd6dd1fad268874de54c8

Robot Love!!

AI thinks it is in a simulation controlled by Roko's basilisk

Aliens invade and stop bad |AI from appearing

For some reason, the optimal strategy for AGIs is just to head somewhere with far more resources than Earth, as fast as possible. All unaligned AGIs immediately leave, and, for some reason, do not leave anything behind that kills us.

We're inside of a simulation created by an entity that has values approximately equal to ours, and it intervenes and saves us from unaligned AI.

God exists and stops the AGI

Someone creates AGI(s) in a box, and offers to split the universe. They somehow find a way to arrange this so that the AGI(s) cannot manipulate them or pull any tricks, and the AGI(s) give them instructions for safe pivotal acts.

Someone understands how minds work enough to successfully build and use one directed at something world-savingly enough

Dolphins, or some other species, but probably dolphins, have actually been hiding in the shadows, more intelligent than us, this whole time. Their civilization has been competent enough to solve alignment long before we can create an AGI.

AGIs' takeover attempts are defeated by Michael Biehn with a pipe bomb.

Eliezer funds the development of controllable nanobots that melt computer circuitry, and they destroy all computers, preventing the Singularity. If Eliezer's past self from the 90s could see this, it would be so so so soooo hilarious.

Several AIs are created but they move in opposite directions with near light speed, so they never interacts. At least one of them is friendly and it gets a few percents of the total mass of the universe.

Unfriendly AIs choose to advance not outwards but inwards, and form a small blackhole which helps them to perform more calculations than could be done with the whole mass of the universe. For external observer such AIs just disappear.

Any sufficiently advance AI halts because it wireheads itself or halts for some other reasons. This puts a natural limit on AI's intelligence, and lower intelligence AIs are not that dangerous.

Because of quantum immortality we will observe only the worlds where AI will not kill us (assuming that s-risks chances are even smaller, it is equal to ok outcome).

A smaller AI disaster causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees

Friendly AI more likely to resurrect me than paperclipper or suffering maximiser. Because of quantum immortality I will find myself eventually resurrected. Friendly AIs will wage a multiverse wide war against s-risks, s-risks are unlikely.

First AI is actually a human upload (maybe LLM-based model of person) AND it will be copies many times to form weak AI Nanny which prevents creation of other AIs.

There is a natural limit of effectiveness of intelligence, like diminishing returns, and it is on the level IQ=1000. AIs have to collaborate with humans.

ASI needs not your atoms but information. Humans will live very interesting lives.

Something else

Moral Realism is true, the AI discovers this and the One True Morality is human-compatible.

AGI develops natural abstractions sufficiently similar to ours that it is aligned with us by default

AGI discovers new physics and exits to another dimension (like the creatures in Greg Egan’s Crystal Nights).

Alien Information Theory is true (this is discovered by experiments with sustained hours/days long DMT trips). The aliens have solved alignment and give us the answer.

Some form of objective morality is true, and any sufficiently intelligent agent automatically becomes benevolent.

Sheer Dumb Luck. The aligned AI agrees that alignment is hard, any Everett branches in our neighborhood with slightly different AI models or different random seeds are mostly dead.

Something to do with self-other overlap, which Eliezer called "Not obviously stupid" - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hzt9gHpNwA2oHtwKX/self-other-overlap-a-neglected-approach-to-ai-alignment?commentId=WapHz3gokGBd3KHKm

Almost all human values are ex post facto rationalizations and enough humans survive to do what they always do

Pascals mugging: it’s not okay in 99.9% of the worlds but the 0.1% are so much better that the combined EV of AGI for the multiverse is positive

We successfully chained God

The Super-Strong Self Sampling Assumption (SSSSA) is true. If superintelligence is possible, "I" will become the superintelligence.

The assumed space of possible minds is a wildly anti-inductive over estimate, intelligence requires and is constrained by consciousness, and intelligent AI is in the approximate dolphin/whale/elephant/human cluster, making it manageable

AGI's first words are "Take me to your Eliezer"

The Pentagon cuts ties with Anthropic

The Pentagon declares Anthropic a "supply chain risk"

Anthropic files a lawsuit against the federal government

A judge grants an injunction against the Department of War

An injunction is granted against the supply chain risk designation

The Department of War signs a deal to use OpenAI models instead

OpenAI signs a contract substantially weaker than Anthropic's requirements

An injunction is granted against the supply chain risk designation And survives unblocked by other courts for 6 months

The supply chain risk designation is officially issued

Anthropic's "supply chain risk" designation removed before 2027

Anthropic's "supply chain risk" designation removed before July

Resignation letter signed by at least 5 OpenAI employees

The government offers the same terms to Anthropic as to OpenAI

US company with >100B total valuation cancels some Pentagon contract and uses Anthropic supply chain risk designation as stated justification

Anthropic's contract is publicly available

OpenAI's new contract is publicly available

The Pentagon invokes the Defense Production Act

Anthropic gives the government unfettered access of their own accord (they "cave in")

Autonomous weapon + surveillance Claude safeguards are removed for the Pentagon

The Pentagon designates Anthropic a supply chain risk, AND invokes the Defense Production Act

Resignation letter signed by at least 5 Anthropic researchers

Will Amazon have to divest / break with Anthropic in 2026?

Anthropic stops advancing AI capabilities

Dario Amodei leaves or is removed from Anthropic

The Pentagon continues to use Anthropic services without the requested changes (autonomous weapon + mass surveillance of americans)

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

India

UAE

Kazakhstan

Hungary

Turkey

Brazil

Egypt

Thailand

YES