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xAI Adds Outfit Customisation to Grok, Plans User-Created Designs

4 months ago

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xAI Releases Grok App Version 1.1.62 Adding Text Chat With Companions Ani, Valentine, Rudi and Removes Ani’s Outfit

3 months ago

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

12.63%chance

802467730

OptionVotes

YES

48915

11661

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

95382487

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2030

Before January 2040

Before January 2029

Before January 2028

Before January 2027

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

Before January 2026

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Sep 12, 5:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.14%chance

154150007

OptionVotes

YES

49118

4323

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.82%chance

85131473

OptionVotes

YES

2810

881

Will common shareholders recover any value from 23andMe's bankruptcy?

Mar 29, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.86%chance

1863884

OptionVotes

YES

17729

5641

Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

May 11, 12:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19%chance

3329076

OptionVotes

YES

206

Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?

May 30, 1:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

27.82%chance

3118945

OptionVotes

YES

14347

7601

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

53.7%chance

429653

OptionVotes

YES

11488

8479

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

45.27%chance

171797

OptionVotes

YES

10257

9774

Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?

Sep 23, 4:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.02%chance

151631

OptionVotes

YES

11408

8833

By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?

Mar 31, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.8%chance

11360

OptionVotes

YES

10122

9934

How many of 10 distinct objects will Sora depict, given a 100% visual prompt that doesn't include any of the objects?

Feb 17, 7:52 AMMar 1, 7:59 AM

43.94%chance

9192

OptionVotes

YES

10076

9896

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By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Will common shareholders recover any value from 23andMe's bankruptcy?

Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?

By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?

How many of 10 distinct objects will Sora depict, given a 100% visual prompt that doesn't include any of the objects?

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