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Prediction markets for Animal Spirits

Will we have a [decent] end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2029?

Oct 4, 9:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.53%chance

7712382

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1742

639

Will there be a year, before 2040, in which total AI suffering outweighs total 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 16, 11:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.12%chance

7910829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4258

871

Will AI generate realistic video of animal movement before 2026?

Jan 1, 4:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

92.97%chance

323002

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3637

275

The first human to be declared “immortal” will be from which generation?

Dec 10, 9:08 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

372082

OptionProbability

Other

Zoomer

Alpha

Millennial

Gamma

Beta

67

9

9

6

5

4

Will there be a year, before 2030, in which total AI suffering outweighs total 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 16, 11:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.69%chance

161559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

749

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

71.78%chance

201532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1449

734

Will there be a year, before 2030, in which net AI suffering outweighs net 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 17, 12:01 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.08%chance

121034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

816

Will fewer than 10% of 18-24 year olds choose to eat meat by 2100?

Aug 8, 1:54 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29.5%chance

15628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1177

900

Will there be a year, before 2040, in which net AI suffering outweighs net 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 17, 12:03 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.23%chance

13367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

886

Will wild-animal welfare interventions get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 2:14 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.97%chance

10245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

334

227

Will climate geoengineering get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 30, 7:29 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.26%chance

9137

OptionVotes

NO

YES

352

203

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