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Prediction markets for Animal Spirits

Will the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws?

Apr 29, 12:45 AMJan 14, 12:59 AM

16.18%chance

9340009

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10258

1941

Will we have a [decent] end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2029?

Oct 4, 9:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.98%chance

8212639

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1363

776

Will there be a year, before 2040, in which total AI suffering outweighs total 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 16, 11:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.26%chance

8111182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2852

1141

The first human to be declared “immortal” will be from which generation?

Dec 10, 9:08 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

372082

OptionProbability

Other

Zoomer

Alpha

Millennial

Gamma

Beta

67

9

9

6

5

4

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

72.55%chance

251885

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1481

722

Will there be a year, before 2030, in which total AI suffering outweighs total 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 16, 11:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.05%chance

181870

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1706

644

Will there be a year, before 2040, in which net AI suffering outweighs net 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 17, 12:03 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.18%chance

151754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1346

652

Will there be a year, before 2030, in which net AI suffering outweighs net 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 17, 12:01 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.08%chance

121034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

816

Will fewer than 10% of 18-24 year olds choose to eat meat by 2100?

Aug 8, 1:54 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

22.39%chance

16948

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1497

789

Will wild-animal welfare interventions get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 2:14 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

72.85%chance

12265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

354

219

Will climate geoengineering get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 30, 7:29 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

66.48%chance

10195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

362

198

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