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Prediction markets for Annual Recurring Revenue

Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?

Aug 3, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

97.08%chance

3061676

OptionVotes

NO

YES

57795

1736

Will Anthropic Annual Recurring Revenue be under $90bn end of 2026?

Apr 7, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

6820808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4615

1000

Anthropic annualized revenue run rate by end of 2026?

Jul 2, 1:03 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4616636

OptionProbability

>=$10B

>=$20B

>=$30B

>=$40B

>=$50B

>=$60B

>=$80B

>=$100B

>=$120B

>=$150B

>=$200B

>=$250B

100

100

100

100

99

96

90

81

64

47

26

17

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55%chance

4913472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

905

OpenAI annualized revenue run rate by end of 2026?

Jul 2, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

266315

OptionProbability

>=$25B

>=$40B

>=$50B

>=$60B

>=$75B

>=$100B

>=$150B

>=$200B

100

99

90

89

72

45

23

15

Max (Anthropic, OpenAI annualized revenue) by end of 2027?

May 3, 12:31 PMFeb 29, 11:59 PM

172637

OptionProbability

>=$100B

>=$200B

>=$300B

>=$400B

>=$500B

>=$1T

93

76

48

30

19

15

Will we learn that Anthropic lied to investors about operating profitable in Q2 2026 before 2028?

May 25, 8:51 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

10.4%chance

131612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1799

141

Will an AI-generated song about Bitcoin reach 1M streams before 2027?

Mar 15, 7:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.81%chance

151042

OptionVotes

YES

NO

503

20

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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