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Prediction markets for Annual Recurring Revenue

Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?

Aug 3, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.09%chance

2321124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

20092

4995

Will Anthropic Annual Recurring Revenue be under $90bn end of 2026?

Apr 7, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.69%chance

5713464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3186

1353

Anthropic annualized revenue run rate by end of 2026?

Jul 2, 1:03 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3410593

OptionProbability

>=$10B

>=$20B

>=$30B

>=$40B

>=$50B

>=$60B

>=$80B

>=$100B

>=$120B

>=$150B

>=$200B

100

100

100

99

98

93

75

67

58

44

28

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

296432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2124

471

OpenAI annualized revenue run rate by end of 2026?

Jul 2, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

214696

OptionProbability

>=$25B

>=$40B

>=$50B

>=$60B

>=$75B

>=$100B

>=$150B

>=$200B

100

91

80

71

50

26

12

9

Max (Anthropic, OpenAI annualized revenue run rate) at end of 2027?

May 3, 12:31 PMFeb 29, 11:59 PM

111888

OptionProbability

>=$100B

>=$200B

>=$300B

>=$400B

>=$500B

>=$1T

92

74

62

55

36

22

Will Anthropic reach 50 billion in ARR by the end of June?

Apr 7, 4:13 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

72.92%chance

151691

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1641

609

Will an AI-generated song about Bitcoin reach 1M streams before 2027?

Mar 15, 7:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.81%chance

151042

OptionVotes

YES

NO

503

20

How far will my tech startup NiceGit progress by July 2026?

Dec 13, 1:03 AMJul 30, 11:59 PM

5193

OptionProbability

Beta launch with >100 non-paying users

Beta launch with >1,000 non-paying users

Raise investment of $100k-$2m

> $100k in Annual Recurring Revenue

Raise investment of >$2m

> $1m in Annual Recurring Revenue

66

41

41

23

7

5

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