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Top stories

OKX Introduces Tiered DEX Fees, Up to 30% Rebates, and Anoma NFT Lottery with Invitation Codes

OKX Introduces Tiered DEX Fees, Up to 30% Rebates, and Anoma NFT Lottery with Invitation Codes

Authors

8

8 months ago

Prediction markets for Anoma

By 2035, will the presence of anomalously high levels of phosphine on Venus be confirmed by spacecraft?

Sep 29, 8:57 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

40%chance

15553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1102

799

Is the beryllium/helium ATOMKI anomaly due to a new particle?

Jun 10, 7:10 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

11.36%chance

19477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1332

908

Global temperature anomaly in 2050

May 26, 11:52 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.83%chance

11451

OptionProbability

NO

YES

546

289

How many UAP (Unidentified Anomalous Phenomenon) Incidents will US-AARO acknowledge for 2025

Oct 26, 11:16 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

1306

OptionProbability

Above 500

Below 0 - IE No Report Issued by Jan 1, 2027

0 - 49

50 - 99

100 - 149

150 - 199

200 - 249

300 - 349

350 - 399

400 - 449

450 - 500

250 - 299

17

15

14

7

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

5

Does a light sterile neutrino explain any experimental physics anomalies?

Nov 24, 6:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24%chance

8162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

205

122

IF in 2030, atmospheric CO2 is 440-445 ppm, what will be the global temperature anomaly in 2030?

Nov 7, 6:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.59%chance

6140

OptionProbability

NO

YES

440

315

2050 Global Temperature Anomaly X Wheat Price

Jun 30, 2:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2130

OptionProbability

1.5<GTE<2, wheat > $7/bushel

GTE>2, wheat > $7/bushel

GTE>2, wheat < $7/bushel

1.5<GTE<2, wheat < $7/bushel

GTE<1.5, wheat > $7/bushel

GTE<1.5, wheat < $7/bushel

25

20

20

19

8

8

Will "Anomalous Tokens in DeepSeek-V3 and r1" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 27, 12:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

40%chance

381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

30

IF in 2030, atmospheric CO2 is 435-440 ppm, what will be the global temperature anomaly in 2030?

Nov 7, 6:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.51%chance

572

OptionProbability

NO

YES

420

295

Will Vulcan ever suffer an anomaly?

May 23, 5:34 AMDec 31, 6:08 AM

50%chance

445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Length of longest sequence of years with an increasing July temperature anomaly for the period 2020-2035.

Sep 4, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

336

OptionProbability

6+ years

3 years

4 years

5 years

2 years

35

17

17

17

13

New Zealand's annual temperature anomaly (against a 1960-90 climate baseline) will not be below +1°C before 2030

Nov 1, 10:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

52.3%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

75

65

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