Answers News

Elbaf Megathread (Answers will resolve as they occur)

Aug 19, 2:49 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

20794891

OptionProbability

Loki face reveal

Other holy knights beside Garling face reveal (at least one)

Usopp powerup (haki or new weapon)

Dragon finally makes a move

Luffy finds out that the Bartolomeo Pirates were destroyed by Shanks's crew

Shanks backstory with Garling involved

Man marked by flames is revealed

Cross guild arrives on Elbaf

Vivi rejoins the crew

Imu face reveal

Kidd washes up on the shore and is seen in the arc

Shanks's crew do a davy back fight with the strawhats

Big Mom returns (must be present in-person)

100

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Sep 16, 8:34 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

95.76%chance

11745339

OptionVotes

YES

4614

1347

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Jun 28, 2:39 AMOct 28, 11:33 AM

39.01%chance

7330993

OptionVotes

YES

1328

615

Nintendo Switch 2 prop bets [Add answers!]

Sep 14, 10:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4827151

OptionProbability

Compatible with Switch 1 Joy-Cons (even if only Bluetooth)

Backwards compatible with physical Switch 1 games

Backwards compatible with digital Switch 1 games

Crossplay with Switch 1 in any first-party game released within the first 6 months after launch

Multiple launch SKUs

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) with "Mario" in the name

Name of the console contains the word "Switch"

The name of the console is correctly leaked over two weeks before it is revealed

Launch day system software includes a Mii maker

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) with "World" in the name

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) that also came out/is coming out for Switch 1

Backwards compatible with physical Switch 1 games, AND allows you to play a better looking or performing version of at least one Switch 1 game with the original Switch 1 cartridge within 6 months of the console launching

Joy-Cons can be used as a mouse

A new pro controller will be released on the same day the console comes out

New SKU not available at launch available within one year after release

More than two themes before 2027

Any launch SKU has a MSRP not ending in "9.99" in the US

Name of the console contains the word "Super"

Name of the console contains the word "New"

Any launch SKU has an OLED screen

Over 180 days between reveal and release (July 15 deadline)

Revealed this week (before September 21st, 11:59:59pm ET)

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) with "Zelda" in the name

Launch day system software includes an internet browser (general-purpose browser that deliberately allows access to the wider Web, like the 3DS or Wii U browser)

No launch SKU has 12GB RAM

No launch SKU has 256GB storage

Name of at least one launch SKU contains "XL"

The cheapest launch SKU costs ≤$300

Will have some kind of "achievements" or "trophies" system (under any name)

The Joy-Cons have inside-out tracking (via camera or LiDAR)

Has a social media or video-sharing service called Vidmiio (announced or available by launch)

First-party Joy-Cons attach or detach using electromagnets

A launch SKU has Joy-Cons that have a non-grayscale shell (as opposed to the black shells in the trailer).

100

Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030?

Oct 5, 10:21 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

87.82%chance

426398

OptionVotes

YES

1350

901

In the Crisis in Cosmology, the CMBR answer is closer to correct than the supernovae results

Oct 27, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.12%chance

151633

OptionVotes

YES

1045

982

Who will be the next permanent host of The Daily Show? [Add Answers]

Sep 4, 5:51 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

141289

OptionProbability

Desi Lydic

Hasan Minhaj

Ronny Chieng

No permanent host by 2030

Other

Jordan Klepper

Jon Stewart

Michael Kosta

Dulcé Sloan

Troy Iwata

Grace Kuhlenschmidt

Josh Johnson

Lewis Black

John Leguizamo

Leslie Jones

Roy Wood Jr.

Trevor Noah

If there exists a super-intelligent AI, would majority of AI researchers answer Yes to "Have we reached AGI?" ?

Jul 3, 5:50 AMDec 31, 6:29 AM

55.02%chance

241067

OptionVotes

YES

1134

688

Before 2026, will frontier AI models get much better at expressing calibrated uncertainty in their answers?

Feb 6, 12:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.35%chance

8758

OptionVotes

YES

1373

728

Will Manifold add Metaculus style probability-distribution answers before 2033?

Dec 10, 8:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.71%chance

12507

OptionVotes

YES

1115

915

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

YES

1008

988

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 1% or less?

Feb 3, 4:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.9%chance

10193

OptionVotes

YES

1106

959

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Elbaf Megathread (Answers will resolve as they occur)

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Nintendo Switch 2 prop bets [Add answers!]

Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030?

In the Crisis in Cosmology, the CMBR answer is closer to correct than the supernovae results

Who will be the next permanent host of The Daily Show? [Add Answers]

If there exists a super-intelligent AI, would majority of AI researchers answer Yes to "Have we reached AGI?" ?

Before 2026, will frontier AI models get much better at expressing calibrated uncertainty in their answers?

Will Manifold add Metaculus style probability-distribution answers before 2033?

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 1% or less?

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