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Prediction markets for Anthropic AI

If Anthropic caves to the Pentagon in Q1 2026, will it remain a leading AI lab in 2027?

Feb 27, 2:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

149972

OptionProbability

Anthropic does not cave: stays a leading lab

Anthropic does not cave: stops being a leading lab

Anthropic caves: stays a leading lab

Anthropic caves: stops being a leading lab

87

11

1

1

A major tech company, besides Anthropic, reports at least 98% of its code is AI-generated before April 1, 2026

Mar 11, 2:59 PMApr 1, 9:48 AM

12.28%chance

548681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2677

375

Will Anthropic, OpenAI, Deep-mind or Meta publish an app mainly for AI Agents by end of March 2026?

Jan 31, 1:19 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

52.58%chance

345938

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

950

Will OpenAI stick to its commitment to the same red lines as Anthropic for the US military using its AI by EOY 2026?

Feb 27, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.61%chance

362061

OptionVotes

NO

YES

232

170

Major AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic will stop investing in MCP in 2026

Jan 2, 7:42 AMJan 8, 7:59 AM

59.2%chance

91392

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1205

830

Will Anthropic, before 2035, completely halt development of AI and attempt to persuade other organizations to do so?

Mar 7, 1:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.81%chance

14535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1399

866

Which happens first? [Ads in AI][OpenAI vs Anthropic]

Feb 9, 7:33 PMFeb 10, 5:59 AM

6211

OptionProbability

OpenAI significantly expands the scope of Ads in ChatGPT

OpenAI removes ads in ChatGPT

Anthropic adds Ads in one of their primary AI apps (currently Claude)

70

20

10

Any American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?

Feb 25, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

13210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

Has the development of AI been notably (> 50%) shaped by the anthropic principle until May 2024?

May 6, 1:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.21%chance

1200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

297

34

How difficult will Anthropic say the AI alignment problem is?

Aug 8, 7:48 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8170

OptionProbability

Intermediate scenario

No such statement before 2030

Optimistic scenario

Pessimistic scenario

65

21

11

4

Will Lucas Beyer (AI Researcher) work at either Anthropic or xAI before 2027?

Sep 12, 1:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

4123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

48

Will the @anthropic-ai/sdk npm package have more weekly downloads than the openai npm package during any 7-day period be

Feb 26, 7:50 AMJul 1, 6:41 AM

5%chance

152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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