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Prediction markets for Anthropic AI

If Anthropic caves to the Pentagon in Q1 2026, will it remain a leading AI lab in 2027?

Feb 27, 2:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1510922

OptionProbability

Anthropic does not cave: stays a leading lab

Anthropic does not cave: stops being a leading lab

Anthropic caves: stays a leading lab

Anthropic caves: stops being a leading lab

91

8

1

1

Major AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic will stop investing in MCP in 2026

Jan 2, 7:42 AMJan 8, 7:59 AM

35.85%chance

182094

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1338

748

Any American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?

Feb 25, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.65%chance

24867

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

979

When will Anthropic or OpenAI offer a $1,000/month AI subscription?

Jun 5, 2:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11764

OptionProbability

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

69

51

42

21

Will an AI agent at OpenAI, Anthropic, or GDM hack one of the other two labs to steal its research before July 2027?

Oct 2, 1:01 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

29.2%chance

8691

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1055

852

How will the structural similarity of the three frontier AI safety frameworks (Anthropic RSP, OpenAI Preparedness, GDM F

Jul 18, 3:52 AMJun 30, 4:59 AM

3603

OptionProbability

Converge — similarity score ≥ 22/30

No significant change — 17–21

Diverge — ≤ 16

53

33

14

Will Anthropic, before 2035, completely halt development of AI and attempt to persuade other organizations to do so?

Mar 7, 1:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.81%chance

14535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1399

866

Which happens first? [Ads in AI][OpenAI vs Anthropic]

Feb 9, 7:33 PMFeb 10, 5:59 AM

7302

OptionProbability

OpenAI significantly expands the scope of Ads in ChatGPT

OpenAI removes ads in ChatGPT

Anthropic adds Ads in one of their primary AI apps (currently Claude)

88

8

4

Has the development of AI been notably (> 50%) shaped by the anthropic principle until May 2024?

May 6, 1:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.21%chance

1200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

297

34

Will Lucas Beyer (AI Researcher) work at either Anthropic or xAI before 2027?

Sep 12, 1:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

4123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

48

Will Anthropic be the first among the "Big Three" private AI labs to achieve profitable quarterly earnings?

Jun 15, 4:46 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

66.07%chance

645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

72

How much full-speed AI R&D progress will Anthropic make in 2027?

Sep 16, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

0 - 2 months

2.01 - 4 months

4.01 - 5 months

5.01 - 6 months

6.01 - 7 months

7.01 - 8 months

8.01 - 9 months

9.01 - 10 months

10.01 - 11 months

11.01 - 12 months

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

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