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Prediction markets for Anthropic API

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

62.79%chance

6342394

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129891

76988

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2025?

Apr 12, 12:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.3%chance

14627602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2113

473

Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date

Jul 25, 6:37 PMJun 30, 6:35 PM

5012032

OptionProbability

Before September 2026

Before August 2026

Before July 2026

Before June 2026

Before May 2026

Before April 2026

Before March 2026

Before February 2026

Before January 2026

Before August 2025

Before September 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

90

82

71

63

51

39

28

14

2

0

0

0

0

0

Anthropic's API exceeds 99.6% uptime at end of 2025?

Sep 11, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.3%chance

122607

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2510

398

xAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Sep 28, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.2%chance

71174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1928

519

Will a major AI lab claim to use activation steering in its main chat assistant by EOY 2025?

Jan 25, 9:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.15%chance

15582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

110

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM

59.5%chance

2232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

825

Will Claude and other base models support the Model Context Protocol (MCP) natively by 2026?

Apr 1, 5:41 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

86.47%chance

22

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3

0

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