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Prediction markets for Anthropic API

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.33%chance

9558194

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144253

69986

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

98.97%chance

3119748

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10655

120

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.82%chance

9412544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12271

8388

Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026?

Apr 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.42%chance

387095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2486

796

Which new words will Anthropic use to name Claude models? (Haiku, Sonnet, Opus, Fable, Mythos, ...)

Jun 14, 2:36 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

395669

OptionProbability

Claude Saga

Claude Epic

Claude … the name of a real (animal species, or settlement, or geological feature)

Claude … Quest, or Goliath

Claude Ballad

Claude Odyssey

Canon

Claude Parable

Claude Anthology

Claude Novel

Claude Legend

Claude Chronicle

Claude Requiem

Claude Allegory

Shannon

Claude Lore

Claude Tale

Claude Myth

19

17

16

16

16

15

14

13

13

12

11

11

11

10

7

4

3

2

Will Anthropic natively integrate image generation into Claude and/or Claude Code in 2026?

Feb 6, 7:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.79%chance

263461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1535

651

Will there be a publicly available AI with Anthropic Mythos-level capabilities before 2027?

Apr 15, 5:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.3%chance

231152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

510

20

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM

70.93%chance

3582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1562

640

A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2028

Feb 16, 7:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.93%chance

10317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

178

56

Anthropic to release model not available through API in 2026

Jan 18, 11:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.75%chance

6197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Will Anthropic's API uptime fall below 98% in 2026?

Apr 19, 9:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.34%chance

3155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1143

875

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMAug 20, 7:59 PM

68.73%chance

212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

97

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