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Prediction markets for Anthropic API

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

66.99%chance

8957065

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143123

70539

xAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Sep 28, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.56%chance

2920903

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5299

189

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

97.16%chance

2711352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6226

197

Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026?

Apr 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.85%chance

356572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2131

828

Will Anthropic natively integrate image generation into Claude and/or Claude Code in 2026?

Feb 6, 7:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.18%chance

232776

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

964

When will a Claude Mythos Preview-level coding model be available to the general public?

Apr 7, 6:41 PMApr 7, 6:40 PM

191547

OptionProbability

Nov 2026 or later

Jun 2026

Jul 2026

Aug 2026

Sep 2026

Oct 2026

May 2026

Apr 2026

37

20

12

9

8

8

4

2

Will Anthropic release Claude 5 (or Opus 5) before July 1, 2026?

Mar 28, 4:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.3%chance

4254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

204

56

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM

59.5%chance

2232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

825

Will Microsoft train and release a frontier model in 2026?

Feb 16, 3:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.84%chance

7177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Anthropic to release model not available through API in 2026

Jan 18, 11:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.75%chance

5157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Will Anthropic's API uptime fall below 98% in 2026?

Apr 19, 9:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.34%chance

3155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1143

875

Will the @anthropic-ai/sdk npm package have more weekly downloads than the openai npm package during any 7-day period be

Feb 26, 7:50 AMJul 1, 6:41 AM

5%chance

152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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