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Prediction markets for Anthropic API

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.02%chance

9257160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143218

70492

Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 to all customers by the end of June?

Jun 13, 1:26 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM

13%chance

23745690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2359

595

When will Anthropic's API customers get access to Fable 5 again?

Jun 13, 2:24 AMJul 13, 2:24 AM

6717845

OptionProbability

Before August 1st

Before July 1

Before June 25

Before June 21

Before June 23

Before June 13

Before June 14

Before June 15

Before June 18

67

18

10

1

1

0

0

0

0

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

97.94%chance

2915988

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7381

168

Will Claude Fable 5 be re-enabled for Non-Americans before July 1st, 2026?

Jun 13, 9:47 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15.42%chance

7011191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2021

685

Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026?

Apr 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.42%chance

387095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2486

796

Will Anthropic natively integrate image generation into Claude and/or Claude Code in 2026?

Feb 6, 7:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42%chance

253085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

851

Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 for US customers by the end of June?

Jun 13, 1:36 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

18.48%chance

361912

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

48

Will Claude Fable 5 be API Pricing Only when public access returns?

Jun 14, 2:21 AMJan 1, 2:21 AM

15.39%chance

121728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2345

426

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM

59.5%chance

2232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

825

Anthropic to release model not available through API in 2026

Jan 18, 11:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.75%chance

6197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Will Anthropic's API uptime fall below 98% in 2026?

Apr 19, 9:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.34%chance

3155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1143

875

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