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Prediction markets for Anthropic API

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.51%chance

9858808

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144853

69696

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.2%chance

17132633

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14073

7523

Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026?

Apr 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.42%chance

397097

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2486

796

Will Anthropic natively integrate image generation into Claude and/or Claude Code in 2026?

Feb 6, 7:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.09%chance

273878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1995

501

Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026?

Sep 20, 3:58 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

21.72%chance

13909

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

53

Will Anthropic announce a consumer hardware product in 2026?

May 8, 5:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.91%chance

16778

OptionVotes

YES

NO

341

29

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM

70.93%chance

3582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1562

640

Will Microsoft train and release a frontier model in 2026?

Feb 16, 3:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.93%chance

12299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6210

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

61

51

30

24

22

Anthropic to release model not available through API in 2026

Jan 18, 11:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.75%chance

6197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Will Anthropic's API uptime fall below 98% in 2026?

Apr 19, 9:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.34%chance

3155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1143

875

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.76%chance

173

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

91

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