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Prediction markets for Anthropic API

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67%chance

8456997

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143166

70518

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

97.16%chance

2711352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6226

197

Anthropic's Claude 5 released before 4/20

Feb 12, 12:21 AMApr 20, 11:59 PM

17.06%chance

394520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2205

454

xAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Sep 28, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.14%chance

112824

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

983

Will Anthropic natively integrate image generation into Claude and/or Claude Code in 2026?

Feb 6, 7:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.04%chance

222451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1107

904

Will Anthropic release Claude Sonnet 5 in March 2026?

Mar 3, 10:16 AMApr 3, 3:00 AM

4.49%chance

9537

OptionVotes

YES

NO

470

52

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM

59.5%chance

2232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

825

Will Anthropic explicitly ban competing models from using Claude Code before July 1st 2026?

Feb 12, 2:30 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

18.49%chance

12179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

91

Will Microsoft train and release a frontier model in 2026?

Feb 16, 3:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.84%chance

7177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Anthropic to release model not available through API in 2026

Jan 18, 11:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.07%chance

5117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

168

59

Will the @anthropic-ai/sdk npm package have more weekly downloads than the openai npm package during any 7-day period be

Feb 26, 7:50 AMJul 1, 6:41 AM

5%chance

152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Claude 5 be released before June 1?

Mar 2, 10:12 AMJun 2, 10:59 PM

48.44%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

97

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