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Prediction markets for Anthropic API

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.55%chance

10358928

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144964

69643

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.54%chance

17534125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14201

7469

Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026?

Apr 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.42%chance

397097

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2486

796

Will Anthropic natively integrate image generation into Claude and/or Claude Code in 2026?

Feb 6, 7:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.8%chance

284084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2225

449

Will Anthropic's API uptime fall below 98% in 2026?

Apr 19, 9:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.65%chance

61425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2413

414

Will Anthropic announce a $400+/month tier before 2027?

Oct 5, 6:43 AMDec 1, 12:00 AM

30.38%chance

9981

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1514

661

What version number will Anthropic's next Claude Fable model carry? (released by Nov 30, 2026)

Oct 30, 12:54 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

8666

OptionProbability

Fable 5.5

Fable 5.2

No new Fable model by Nov 30

Some other version number

Fable 6

74

11

11

3

0

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM

70.93%chance

3582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1562

640

Will Microsoft train and release a frontier model in 2026?

Feb 16, 3:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.93%chance

12299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6210

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

61

51

30

24

22

Anthropic to release model not available through API in 2026

Jan 18, 11:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.75%chance

6197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Will the next Astra 6.1+ beat the next Fable 5.2+ on Epoch's ECI? (Apr 30 snapshot)

Nov 2, 7:04 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

52.35%chance

569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

94

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