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Prediction markets for Anthropic API

Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date

Jul 25, 6:37 PMJun 30, 6:35 PM

192165491

OptionProbability

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2026-09-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-03-01

Before 2026-02-15

Before 2026-02-08

Before 2026-02-06

Before 2026-02-05

Before August 2025

Before September 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

Before January 2026

Before February 2026

Before 2026-02-04

98

98

98

98

97

95

94

86

47

40

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

65.7%chance

7051445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139076

72591

Will the next release of Claude be Sonnet 4.7?

Dec 16, 6:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.52%chance

4420567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5235

191

Claude 4.6 (Anthropic) release date

Dec 14, 7:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

408595

OptionProbability

Before August 2026

Before April 2026

Before July 2026

Before June 2026

Before May 2026

Before March 2026

Before January 2026

Before February 2026

96

95

95

94

91

87

0

0

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2026?

Jan 3, 12:26 AMJan 1, 12:23 AM

65.82%chance

455116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1388

721

xAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Sep 28, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.77%chance

92124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2878

348

Will OpenAI announce a new full-size, frontier model >5.2 before March 1, 2026?

Jan 14, 9:55 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

41.9%chance

17665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM

59.5%chance

2232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

825

Anthropic to release model not available through API in 2026

Jan 18, 11:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.75%chance

477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

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