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Prediction markets for Anyone

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.88%chance

505724917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16837

12087

Which car company will drive between New York to San Francisco without anyone in the drivers seat first?

Sep 9, 12:44 PMSep 16, 10:59 PM

7757100

OptionProbability

Tesla

Waymo

Other

openpilot

General Motors

Cavendish Labs

None (does not happen by market close)

80

15

5

0

0

0

0

Will anyone be at least 150 years old by 2072?

Dec 13, 7:58 PMJan 1, 3:00 AM

13.36%chance

15429506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4091

1496

Will anyone solve my partner's depression before 2027? [M$1,000,000 bounty]

Sep 29, 5:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.73%chance

4814501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19554

5114

Will anyone top Magnus Carlsen's peak ELO of 2882 by the end of 2026?

Dec 7, 11:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

2.69%chance

469713

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8733

272

Will anyone commit suicide due to fears of anti-aligned AI before 2030?

Mar 25, 3:29 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

87.54%chance

1247563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2579

1807

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Oct 2, 4:20 PMOct 2, 4:19 PM

77.79%chance

255750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1872

534

Will anyone die in space before 2030?

Dec 15, 6:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.36%chance

483433

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

880

Will anyone currently living be verified as 120 years old by 2030?

Feb 12, 2:13 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

20.27%chance

162821

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5020

2151

Will anyone be impeached by the US House of Representatives in 2027?

Sep 16, 10:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.52%chance

11886

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2681

1691

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.93%chance

23884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

495

Will anyone associated with Helion be convicted of defrauding Helion investors by 2043?

May 16, 11:19 PMMay 18, 6:59 AM

15.14%chance

11234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1139

954

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