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Prediction markets for Anyone

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81%chance

496718482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16300

14169

Which car company will drive between New York to San Francisco without anyone in the drivers seat first?

Sep 9, 12:44 PMSep 16, 10:59 PM

7757085

OptionProbability

Tesla

Waymo

Other

openpilot

General Motors

Cavendish Labs

None (does not happen by market close)

80

16

4

0

0

0

0

Will anyone be at least 150 years old by 2072?

Dec 13, 7:58 PMJan 1, 3:00 AM

13.05%chance

15329494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4170

1484

Will anyone solve my partner's depression before 2027? [M$1,000,000 bounty]

Sep 29, 5:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.5%chance

4312501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17554

5697

Will anyone commit suicide due to fears of anti-aligned AI before 2030?

Mar 25, 3:29 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

87.28%chance

1237513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2529

1814

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Oct 2, 4:20 PMOct 2, 4:19 PM

78.44%chance

245740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1907

524

Will anyone top Magnus Carlsen's peak ELO of 2882 by the end of 2026?

Dec 7, 11:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.24%chance

405630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4682

474

Will anyone become a trillionaire before 2030?

Jan 15, 7:01 PMJan 1, 1:26 AM

85.05%chance

644621

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2766

376

Will anyone die in space before 2030?

Dec 15, 6:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.36%chance

483433

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

880

Will anyone currently living be verified as 120 years old by 2030?

Feb 12, 2:13 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

23.74%chance

142221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4420

2320

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.83%chance

22864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

534

Russian translation of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" appears when?

Oct 4, 3:25 PMJan 1, 4:24 PM

00

OptionProbability

Before 2025-12-31

2026-01-01 to 2026-06-30

2026-07-01 to 2026-12-31

2027-01-01 to 2027-06-30

2027-07-01 to 2027-12-31

No translation is published before 2028

17

17

17

17

17

17

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