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Prediction markets for Anyone

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.75%chance

464679780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17782

9207

Which car company will drive between New York to San Francisco without anyone in the drivers seat first?

Sep 9, 12:44 PMSep 16, 10:59 PM

7756615

OptionProbability

Tesla

Waymo

Other

openpilot

General Motors

Cavendish Labs

None (does not happen by market close)

73

23

3

0

0

0

0

Will anyone be at least 150 years old by 2072?

Dec 13, 7:58 PMJan 1, 3:00 AM

8.07%chance

15129276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6080

1265

Will anyone commit suicide due to fears of anti-aligned AI before 2030?

Mar 25, 3:29 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

86.53%chance

1227450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2395

1834

Will anyone top Magnus Carlsen's peak ELO of 2882 by the end of 2026?

Dec 7, 11:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.24%chance

405630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4682

474

Will anyone die in space before 2030?

Dec 15, 6:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

30.3%chance

453028

OptionVotes

NO

YES

993

912

Will anyone become a trillionaire before 2030?

Jan 15, 7:01 PMJan 1, 1:26 AM

51.52%chance

482427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1331

968

Will anyone currently living be verified as 120 years old by 2030?

Feb 12, 2:13 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

22.81%chance

131946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4567

2276

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.83%chance

22864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

534

Will anyone alive when this question was made, be alive when it ends?

Jan 1, 1:53 PMJan 8, 10:59 PM

30.53%chance

12776

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

842

Will anyone die at least 100,000km from Earth before 2030?

Dec 15, 6:14 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

18.13%chance

11321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

947

Will anyone associated with Helion be convicted of defrauding Helion investors by 2043?

May 16, 11:19 PMMay 18, 6:59 AM

15.14%chance

11234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1139

954

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