OptionVotes
YES
NO
16706
12559
OptionProbability
The Jews control at least one nation's government
Imane Khelif is intersex
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
DHMO in the water supply
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
Santa is rigged
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
√-1 isn't real
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.
The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
Groundhog Day is rigged
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
Annie Altman's abuse claims
Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.
Gamergate was right
Dead Internet theory
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
John McAfee didn't kill himself
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
China made covid 19 in a lab
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
China was not genociding Uyghurs
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
Sue Gray was a spy
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
The CIA killed JFK
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
The NFL is rigged
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle
A cure for cancer has already been found
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Harold Holt murdered
Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Ogopogo is real
QAnon
Exercise is bad for your health
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Israel killed JFK
Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
Bush did 9/11
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
Princess Diana was assassinated
QR codes are satanic
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
Human didnt evolve from apes
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Rationalussy isn't real.
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
The Mandella Effect in general is real
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
US government is harboring aliens
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
Climate change isn’t real
The moon landing was fake
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.
The illuminati runs the world
*All* health care is net negative for health
Michelle Obama is a man
Brazilian money is not real
Yeti is real or similar creature
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
The earth is a dodecahedron
Skibidi Toilet is real
Q is Putin
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Africa isn't real
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
End of the world in 2012
Earth is hollow
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Flossing is bad for your health
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
91
90
90
85
85
82
80
77
76
75
74
71
70
69
65
52
52
51
50
48
46
42
42
42
41
41
39
39
38
37
37
36
35
35
32
31
31
30
30
29
28
28
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
27
26
26
25
25
25
24
24
23
23
23
23
22
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Tesla
Waymo
Other
openpilot
General Motors
Cavendish Labs
None (does not happen by market close)
81
15
4
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Other
BDSM
Power couple
"Fun while it lasted"
Me + *Her*
Keynesian beauty contest
Spinning rapidly in opposite directions
Polyamory
Monogamy
Relationship Futarchy
Human + Robot
Enemies to Lovers
Co-conspirators
Philosophically incompatible
Conjoined twinks
Horizontal gene transfer
borgie
Relationship Anarchy
Platonic
Wild Lovers
Friends with Benefits
Relationship constitutional republic: people in it have systemically different levels of power and decision-making influence
Forever alone
Glucose guardian/splenda spender/sugar daddy
Hobbesian
Hive / Swarm / Superorganism
Love triangle
Traditional marriage of two cis straight White Christian vanilla people where the man "leads" and is 0-4 years older than the woman, with 2.5 kids (not counting any LGBTQIA+ ones) and a McMansion with 2.5 SUVs/trucks
Universal love
merged consciousness
Rationalussy
Vespertine
liking/reacting to even their most meaningless posts and comments on social media and prediction markets
Matriarchy
Labor Union
Socratic
One with an IPO (Intimate Partnership Offer)
Just being one helluva slut
Beard
Paradixical
Friends with Detriments
NP-complete
Hell's Kitchen
Stockholm Syndrome
London Syndrome
Financial Domination
The Price is Right
Crows
Single by choice (except it's other people's choice)
Budget horse
assortative
Hubris quest
Fiends with benefits
Envenomation
Polygamy
Polyandry
Ethical Non-Monogamy
Unethical Non-Monogamy
Celibacy
Aromanticism
Solo poly
Open relationship
Polyfidelity
What's a "relationship"?
Reflexive
Symmetric
Transitive
Metamour
Socially enforced monogamy
Unreciprocated love
Asexual romance
Abusive
"This is my emotional support Ex"
FWB
Enemies-To-Lovers
Codependent
Transference
Monogamish
Voyeuristic
Romantic Mutual Suicide
Mutuals
Animalistic
Human + AI
parasocial
Polycule
Cuckold
Throuple
Boyce-Codd normal form
Aristotelian
Partners in crime, like Caroline Ellison and Sam Bankman-Fried
I like big butts and I cannot lie
I like big butts and I cannot tell the truth, how will you escape our dungeon
"I'll never admit to anyone that we met on Tinder"
The Apprentice
15
8
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
With a cisgender woman
With anyone at all
With a cisgender man
With a transfeminine person
With a transmasculine person
100
100
40
39
24
OptionVotes
YES
NO
17681
5656
OptionProbability
John Bolton
Letitia James
Fani Willis
Any sitting Democratic elected official
Lisa Cook
Adam Schiff
Jack Smith
Anyone additional for their role in the Jeffrey Epstein case
Tim Walz
Jerome Powell
George Soros / anyone in Open Societies Foundation leadership
Anyone pardoned by Joe Biden
Liz Cheney
Hunter Biden
Anyone in the Obama family
100
100
80
68
63
51
50
50
50
50
45
40
34
20
20
OptionProbability
It releases
A Dark World appears in Asgore's flower shop
FRIEND has an increased prominence in Chapter 5
Asgore isn’t the final boss of Chapter 5
Something was foreshadowed by the Undertale 10th Anniversary event
An sub-40-minute speedrun happens within a month of release
A battle against any Undertale character
Dess is confirmed to be the Roaring Knight
There are multiple new Dark Worlds
The Weird Route has a completely different final battle than the normal route
The official soundtrack has 40+ songs
Asriel appears
Flowey will be a darkner
A Weird Route exclusive battle against Kris, Susie, and/or Ralsei
Noelle replaces Kris as the player-controlled character at some point in the Weird Route
A plot important character dies
A battle with 4+ party members (with actual menus, nothing in CH4 would count)
Papyrus appears
Catti appears in a Dark World
Kris loses a hand
Jockington is confirmed to have some kind of connection to FRIEND/ IMAGEFRIEND
W.D. Gaster appears
Anyone other than Dess is confirmed to be the Roaring Knight
The weird route ends (as in, you can’t load a weird route save for chapter 6)
97
92
82
78
76
75
68
59
59
57
56
37
37
35
35
33
29
27
27
24
15
14
14
14
OptionProbability
You can go in if your boat is in this marina right now.
If there is a fire and your boat stored here burns up partially and is not seaworthy, can you go in?
If your boat is here and you contracted a spot, but all legal record of that burned in a fire, are you allowed in?
If you owned a boat which is here, but it's been molecularly exchanged for identical but different atoms by aliens, you can go in
If your boat here sinks can you go in?
If your boat is here and you contracted a spot, but all legal record of that burned in a fire, and the only one who remembers who is still alive is you, and you paid cash, are you allowed in?
You can go in if you are a guest of someone who is a boat owner.
The dock owner is not allowed to go in, unless he is or is with a boat owner
Only official owners of a specific but unspecified boat located on the dock are allowed through
You can go in if you own a real live seaworthy boat now anywhere in the world.
If you privately own the company that owns the boat, you may enter
If you stole a boat, parked it here with a legal berth lease contract, then left, and return, can you go in?
If you are a shareholder in the company that owns the boat, you may pass
If California becomes officially Marxist, where ownership is an exclusive right of the state, can you anyone go in at all?
If the 24 hour video surveillance of the marina is disabled, that invalidates that sign immediately above, creating a presumption that all the signs on the fence are false, and making it the case that only non-boat owners are allowed.
You can go in if you own any kind of boat in any condition in the world, including toy boats, model boats, Lego boats, virtual boats in baldurs gate etc.
The gate will prevent all non-boat owners from passing. Guests and passengers must swim
The sign isn't about who is allowed through, it's about the contents of what's on the other side. Everything beyond the fence is a Boat Owner.
If you own 1% of a boat here you can go in
You can go through if you open the gate
You can go in if your spouse is a boat owner
If you own half a boat stored here legally you can go in
Joshua, byrne, marcus, Odoacre, firstuserhere, and at least one legalistic fan from the UAW strike claim horror show will participate
You can go in if you have no boat, but plan to buy one someday and have a contract for a reserved berth space
You can go through if you have a contracted and paid berth here.
You can go in if you have a berth contract but are behind in payment.
Bonus: people who own three boats stored here can alternate sleeping arrangements so that in any seven day period they never sleep in one more than 3 days, legally?
This market will entirely be excluded from leagues
You can go in if you own a Binary Oxidizing Acetylitic Thermometer.
You can go in if you are a former boat owner but have converted it to a sailplane, which is here.
You can go in if you are a leashed dog that doesn't own a boat, but is with a boat owner
You can go in if you have a rental boat stored here.
Ghosts are allowed because they say B.O.O. (Boat Owners Only), which is the password
You can go in if your grandpa is a boat owner
You can go in if you are ex navy.
This market gets more than 100 bettors
86
77
77
75
74
65
58
57
57
56
56
52
50
50
50
49
47
46
44
44
39
38
35
35
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
32
31
25
20
18
OptionProbability
I recently started putting up flyers around. Will at least one person join discord cause of these, directly, not because of any other reason, within a week? By eod Jan 16
I submitted a flyer to the library admin office for approval. Will it be up by Thursday noon?
Will I hear from the library by Jan 16 via email or other, or flyer is up?
Will we have 10+ people this year at a meeting?
Well at least five people wrote and submit stories for the March event?
Will at least 1 member besides me join manifest 2024? There are some leads
Will we have 11+ at a meeting by mid 2025?
Will at least 3 people read Neuromancer (in addition to me) by EOY 2024 as we plan?
By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times publish a novel? Self publishing okay
By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times win a fiction or sci-fi award?
Will we have a new author special guest by EOY 2024? (We already had Richard Ngo once!)
Will any past/future/present members excluding me be published online in a "real" magazine (not completely self-published) such as lightspeed? by mid 2026
Will Richard Ngo win a major scifi award (Hugo, Nebula, Philip K Dick, or other with prize 20k or more by mid 2031
Will someone successfully have us read, approvingly, an AI story without knowing
Will someone discovering us via flyer show up at a meeting by mid year?
Will the library deny me initially, which I'm going to push them on to find out?
Will I have to escalate the situations with legal threats to get us on the bulletin board in the San Mateo library?
Will someone else submit a flyer design which is better than my primitive one?
Will at least one person show up in person via this market or Manifold, by mid year?
Will at least two semipermanent members be found via flyers by mid year?
Will we have 20+ this year?
Will we have a meeting in a cafe or other commercial spot by mid year?
Will we meet in the library at least once?
Will two people who met at scifi date for at least a month this year?
Will I ever meet someone in person from the OTHER San Mateo sf and fantasy writing group?
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
50
50
50
50
50
50
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
"Obsolete: Power, Profit, and the Race to Build Machine Superintelligence" by Garrison Lovely
"Superintelligence" by Nick Bostrom
"Human Compatible" by Stuart Russell
"The Alignment Problem" by Brian Christian
"The Precipice" by Tob Ord
"What We Owe the Future" by Will MacAskill
"If Anyone Builds it, Everyone Dies" by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares
43
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Before 2025-12-31
2026-01-01 to 2026-06-30
2026-07-01 to 2026-12-31
2027-01-01 to 2027-06-30
2027-07-01 to 2027-12-31
No translation is published before 2028
17
17
17
17
17
17
