Anyone But You News

YES

Resided in the same state as the incident

The shooter killed Charlie Kirk

The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders

Did it on purpose

The shooter is a member of domain Eukarya

The shooter is not a extraterrestrial alien

Will the shooter of Charlie Kirk be apprehended alive by the end of September?

Born in the United States

Firearm used was otherwise lawfully owned under federal and state law

Native English speaker (L1)

Is a registered voter

has at least one sibling

at least ten questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Has a Reddit, Xitter, or Facebook account

“Extremely Online” (market owner’s subjective judgment)

n/a

US citizen

White

used a bolt action rifle

Is the same person the FBI identified as the “person of interest”

wrote reference to furry culture on bullet casing

Male

Current or former LDS Church (mainline Mormon) member

had fired a weapon at least once in their life before shooting Charlie Kirk

20-27 years old

JD Vance alludes to his sexual deviancy

Skinny

Turns themselves in to the police / FBI

Lives (or has lived) in Utah

ectomorph body type

He killed Kirk to stop the spread of hatred.

Owns steam profile 76561198159427286

Will plead guilty

at least a quarter of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Acted alone (no accomplices)

Accident please N/A

has purchased furry-related media or items

Furry

Gamer

Is named Tyler Robinson

Hunter

iphone user

Motivated primarily by political ideology

Dead, as of October 10th (or earlier)

has expressed positive sentiment towards furries

disliked Charlie Kirk

Inconsistent, incoherent, or idiosyncratic political ideology

Unemployed

Is left wing

is/was in a sexual relationship with a transwoman

has a furaffinity account

Owns a car

Lives (or has lived) in the Provo–Orem metropolitan area

Strongly opposes zionism

legally acquired the gun used to kill Charlie Kirk

actually has an indecipherable ideology rooted deeply within internet culture that doesn’t clearly fall on either side.

Has/had a partner named Lance Twiggs

Is sentenced to death

Had bullets with engraved messages on them

Will kill again (including suicide)

Communicated with peers primarily through Discord

Not a virgin

Owns physical furry paraphernalia

extra charges are filed against him based on evidence discovered on his digital devices

Conspired with an AI chatbot about this

There is anecdotal evidence that they have a KiwiFarms account

N/A (oops)

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry transwoman

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry

Dies in prison

has used the word yiff in written communication

Purchased and played Furry Shades of Gay on Steam

Has ADHD

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting the July 2024 attempted assassination of Donald Trump

had attended any event featuring kirk prior to the one at utah valley university

6 ft tall

Kash Patel alludes to his sexual deviancy

Has at least US$5.000 of credit card debt

has vore kink

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting Luigi Mangione

Anarchist (self-described; any "anarcho-" label counts)

Owned the firearm used

Went to furry events

cross-dresser

Purposefully waited until Kirk mentioned shootings to fire

Has posted on r/toiletpaperusa

Avowed right-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Republican, MAGA, right-libertarian, neo-Nazi, monarchist all count)

Accelerationist (any subtype)

Elon Musk alludes to his sexual deviancy

Fan fiction author

White cis-hetero Christian man

Will be convicted by EOY 2026

Wrote a manifesto before the shooting

student at any university

was prescribed psychiatric medication

Owns a fursuit

Participates in this market

Transgender

Has Reddit account with 10k+ karma

psychedelics user

Brony or a fan of My Little Pony

Radical Centrist/JREG fan

at least half of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Has a Bluesky account

There is a broad consensus that they have a KiwiFarms account

Posted about Charlie Kirk on social media before the shooting

Current or previous student at University of Utah

Current or former Calvary Chapel or other Pentecostal church member

Former or current Charlie Kirk fan

Contact with CVLT/764/similar

made online adult/sexual content (e.g. onlyfans)

Was on an FBI watchlist

Involved in Israel/Palestine activism on either side

has significant student load debt

Age >= 40 (on the day of the shooting)

Had diagnosed mental illness

Is right wing

J.K. Rowling alludes to his sexual deviancy

Femboy

History of illegal drug addiction

White Nationalist

Left-handed

Was awarded a medal or award for marksmanship at any given point in time

Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, or Transgender

History of domestic violence

Shooting was motivated by gun legislation in some way

Ex law enforcement

Will be convicted by EOY 2025

Had felony conviction previously

Incel

groyper

Was motivated by the Trump Epstein cover up?

is Mossad

Avowed left-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Democrat, socialist, communist, Green all count)

Motivated by personal grudge rather than politics (e.g. sexual jealousy or other personal-life motive)

Any documented connection to O9A (Order of Nine Angles, esoteric right-accelerationst group)

Escapes carceral detention

Was a student at UVU

Involved in Effective Altruism

Wanted to create pretext for violence against leftists

Has Twitter account with more than 2000 tweets

Had a wikipedia page prior to 9/10/2025

Enjoys diplomatic immunity

The shooter will read "If Anyone Builds It..." (either while on the run or in custody) and likes the book

Current or former Roman Catholic

A time traveller trying to avoid the worst

Female Ninja Type Sniper

Has a parent who drives for Uber

Parent

decel

Not arrested before EOY 2025

Fled the country after the shooting

Will get killed by law enforcement

Was a fan of Charlie Kirk

Indian national

The shooter is a professional hitman, who does not care much about politics or ideology

Used a handgun

Ex-military

Not arrested as of midnight EST 9/14

Has a PhD

Has a Manifold account

Muslim

Veteran

History of alcoholism

Will share their first name with a famous video game character

Teenager

Will be apprehended at a McDonald's

50 years or older

Has a master's degree

Will be apprehended at McDonald's, like Luigi Mangione.

Is or was a computer science student

Married

Manifold assists with his capture

Personally knew Charlie Kirk

The shooter was an AI or an android controlled by AI

Iranian national

Registered Democrat

is in fact three racoons dressed in a trenchcoat

All questions in this market are resolved before 2026

Meant to hit an apple on Charlie Kirk's head

used telekinesis to correct the bullet's trajectory

Tesla

Waymo

Other

openpilot

General Motors

Cavendish Labs

YES

Other

BDSM

Power couple

"Fun while it lasted"

Me + *Her*

Keynesian beauty contest

Spinning rapidly in opposite directions

Polyamory

Monogamy

Relationship Futarchy

Human + Robot

Enemies to Lovers

Co-conspirators

Philosophically incompatible

Conjoined twinks

Horizontal gene transfer

borgie

Relationship Anarchy

Platonic

Wild Lovers

Friends with Benefits

Relationship constitutional republic: people in it have systemically different levels of power and decision-making influence

Forever alone

Glucose guardian/splenda spender/sugar daddy

Hive / Swarm / Superorganism

Love triangle

Traditional marriage of two cis straight White Christian vanilla people where the man "leads" and is 0-4 years older than the woman, with 2.5 kids (not counting any LGBTQIA+ ones) and a McMansion with 2.5 SUVs/trucks

Universal love

merged consciousness

Rationalussy

Vespertine

liking/reacting to even their most meaningless posts and comments on social media and prediction markets

Matriarchy

Labor Union

Socratic

Partners in crime, like Caroline Ellison and Sam Bankman-Fried

One with an IPO (Intimate Partnership Offer)

Just being one helluva slut

Beard

Paradixical

Friends with Detriments

NP-complete

"I'll never admit to anyone that we met on Tinder"

Hell's Kitchen

Stockholm Syndrome

London Syndrome

Financial Domination

The Price is Right

Crows

Single by choice (except it's other people's choice)

Budget horse

assortative

Hubris quest

Fiends with benefits

Envenomation

Polygamy

Polyandry

Ethical Non-Monogamy

Unethical Non-Monogamy

Celibacy

Aromanticism

Solo poly

Open relationship

Polyfidelity

What's a "relationship"?

Reflexive

Symmetric

Transitive

Metamour

Socially enforced monogamy

Unreciprocated love

Asexual romance

Abusive

"This is my emotional support Ex"

FWB

Enemies-To-Lovers

Codependent

Transference

Monogamish

Voyeuristic

Hobbesian

Romantic Mutual Suicide

Mutuals

Animalistic

Human + AI

parasocial

Polycule

Cuckold

Throuple

Boyce-Codd normal form

Aristotelian

I like big butts and I cannot lie

I like big butts and I cannot tell the truth, how will you escape our dungeon

(Unrecorded)

(Unintelligible)

Make America Great Again

Melania

My Country

I'm not dying!

MAGA! Please, MAGA!

god bless the united states of america

My legacy, it was the best legacy, it had never been done before

Rosebud

mars

The Grim Reaper just called me. Terrific guy. Says he's never seen someone fight death so strongly. Very impressed.

Karoline, make something up. Something very big

Never Felt Better In My Life

"God forgive me"

I am gay

Biden

go birds

The doctors tell me I'm dying better than anyone has ever died before. Tremendous dying. The best.

I know more about the afterlife than anyone. Heaven is already calling me saying 'Sir, we've never seen poll numbers like yours up here.

Hey, make sure that my name appears in the history books as a great person

Kamala

Inflation

Polymarket

Vriska did nothing wrong

rationalussy

Elon / Elon Musk

This Isn't Even My Final Form!

I guess I exercised too much

Joe Biden still survives

"my white plume ..."

We love Elon. Folks, we love him.

Covfede

With a cisgender woman

With anyone at all

With a cisgender man

With a transfeminine person

@Robincvgr will think the pilot is good

A poll of Manifold users will think the pilot is good (tie = NO)

All beta trolls appear

Toby Fox voices John in the pilot

Any troll other than Karkat appears in the pilot

Any troll appears in the pilot

We see a troll "in person" before or simultaneously with a troll contacting a human

Toby Fox is still voicing John in his last appearance

The series has a second episode AND there is a new "first episode" substantially different from the pilot

Megalovania plays

Megalovania plays before Megalovania plays in Deltarune (Resolves NO if Megalovania never appears in HS, even if it never appears in Deltarune either)

Vriska does something wrong (as judged by Robin)

The show will generally cover most of the events of the first five acts

The series has a second episode

Eddie Morton recording of I'm a Member of the Midnight Crew is sampled or played

The first time a troll contacts a kid, the troll can see the kid but the kid cannot see the troll

The total runtime of the series is at least 413 minutes

Dave's strifes with Bro are more intense or violent than John's strifes with Dad, as judged by @Robincvgr (N/A if either has no strifes depicted)

Anyone says "Sweet Bro and Hella Jeff"

"Betty Crocker" or the names of any General Mills products (e.g. Gushers) are directly spoken

The phrase, "We're doing it, man. We're making this happen," or any misspelling or minor variant thereof, appears.

@Robincvgr will think the series overall is good

Any VA changes between the pilot releasing and the last episode releasing

A substantial portion of any Michael Guy Bowman music appears

Conditional on there being a second episode, Adam McArthur is voicing Dave Strider in the first new/changed episode

Cascade is adapted

Dante Basco voices Rufioh (N/A if Rufioh never appears)

All alpha trolls appear

The show will generally cover most of the events of the entire webcomic

Any part of the plot from HS:BC is covered

Anyone says "retard(ed)" in the pilot

The beginning of the series does not take place on April 13, 2009 (and the date is specified)

a big anthropic shadow

A small group made it impossible for anyone else to develop AI.

A humanitarian catastrophe hampered AI progress.

AI never got the capability to cause extinction.

AI became safer as it got more powerful without much human effort outside of some RLHFing.

Cognitive enhancement helped a lot.

Humanity coordinated on having a sufficiently long and strong AI moratorium.

Brain uploading helped a lot.

Jono from 2023 does not think I (the one being polled in 2100) qualify as a person.

A plan to mitigate AI risks succeeded and already had a post about it on the alignmentforum on 2023.

Open source AI created an egalitarian world where no one/few got in a position to (accidently) kill everyone.

Nobody wanted to develop AI anymore.

Niftski

LeKukie

averge11

An old-timer coming out of retirement (let's say just Kosmic, darbian, Saradoc, Somewes, or AndrewG)

Anyone else (critically, including Miniland, Tree_05, etc.)

Other

1 month

Never (ie OpenAI releases a better model before anyone else can)

3 months

1 week

Other

A portion of Fediverse nodes block Threads, either a portion of a particular type of platform such as Mastodon, or certain types of platforms become open to Threads, just on their own, with little intervention from Threads, it just happens

Meta starts funding Fediverse nodes and maintainers via grants, pays to maintain servers in exchange for not blocking Threads/Meta.

Complete, all-out pitch battle in which large portion of Fediverse protocols and nodes absolutely unify against blocking Threads and anything that smells of Meta.

Threads users complain about unsavory Fediverse content leaking in. Non-Threads content is ultimately blocked for most practical purposes, and the integration feature atrophies.

There’s more of a virtue signaling about blocking Threads across the Fediverse, but little actual action. The actual cost of Fediverse users actually preventing Threads from engaging in nodes just far outweighs the perceived threat.

Meta does like spoofing users which are actually just straight up Meta bots that crawl nodes and hoovering up user data. They use their high end programming resources to just crush any resistance through subterfuge.

Meta Entryism, they pay users, influencers, prominent individuals, either above board or below or both, to constantly post propaganda bout how Meta is a changed man and anyone who is against them is against the Fediverse and anything it sta