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Prediction markets for API
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM
66.99%chance
8957065
OptionVotes
143123
70539
Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026?
Apr 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.85%chance
356572
OptionVotes
2131
828
Will I find any serious bugs in my website's API within a week of release?
Jan 27, 6:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
9.23%chance
373364
OptionVotes
1914
702
Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?
Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM
35.35%chance
7876
OptionVotes
10313
9761
OptionVotes
173
58
Will API pose an existential threat to humanity before 2050?
Oct 2, 3:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
7%chance
6430
OptionVotes
320
86
Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027
May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM
59.5%chance
2232
OptionVotes
1212
825
Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?
Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
49.02%chance
3192
OptionVotes
1020
981
Anthropic to release model not available through API in 2026
Jan 18, 11:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
37.75%chance
5157
OptionVotes
128
78
OptionVotes
1143
875
Will API keys, private passwords, or other personal information be systematically leaked by moltbook users?
Feb 2, 9:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
49.77%chance
593
OptionVotes
100
100
Will Twitter (or API of Twitter) allow search restricted JUST to verified accounts by EOY2028?
Dec 29, 1:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
51.84%chance
670
OptionVotes
104
96