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Prediction markets for APIs

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

62.71%chance

5942124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129674

77116

Will Claude 3.5 Opus be available via API by end of 2025?

Oct 22, 9:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.12%chance

5321611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6795

147

Will I find any serious bugs in my website's API within a week of release?

Jan 27, 6:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.92%chance

353339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2182

677

Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?

Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM

35.35%chance

7876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10313

9761

Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing)

Jun 5, 1:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.08%chance

7699

OptionVotes

YES

NO

537

59

Will Midjourney release a public API by the end of 2025?

Feb 11, 6:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.26%chance

15461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

544

Will API pose an existential threat to humanity before 2050?

Oct 2, 3:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7%chance

6430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

320

86

Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?

May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

35.95%chance

13376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

853

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM

59.5%chance

2232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

825

Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries)

Jun 5, 1:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.38%chance

7188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

303

98

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.7%chance

3117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

947

Claude Sonnet 3.5 and 3.6 unavailable via Anthropic API on October 23, 2025?

Aug 13, 6:23 PMOct 23, 11:59 PM

41.8%chance

660

OptionVotes

NO

YES

600

596

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