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Prediction markets for Apply

Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?

Sep 27, 2:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

24.12%chance

10521379

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2281

1702

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.31%chance

5717669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13461

7504

Will USA and China be at war in the following years? (Pick all that apply)

Mar 28, 5:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

263505

OptionProbability

2027

2030

2028

2029

2026

2025

2024

20

14

13

12

11

9

0

Will any LLM correctly answer the question "why doesn't the rocket equation apply to airplanes?" before 2026?

Jan 4, 6:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

91.91%chance

232645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2942

617

Will the UK apply to rejoin the EU before 2030?

Feb 4, 12:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.78%chance

191354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1142

937

I apply and get accepted to a university with >1400 average SAT.

Jul 21, 12:21 PMSep 1, 9:59 PM

62.32%chance

191210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1286

778

Under Hawley's proposed law, would the generative AI definition apply to curation algorithms like YouTube or Facebook?

Dec 6, 10:18 PMMar 16, 3:59 AM

8%chance

14604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1163

953

Will Israel start applying full Israeli law on their illegal settlements in Palestine in 2025?

Jan 16, 6:40 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

10.13%chance

5225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

298

34

Will Applied Behavior Analysis be discredited by 2026

Aug 9, 7:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.73%chance

6167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

82

Will "Attitudes about Applied Rationality" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Apr 5, 1:55 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

43.18%chance

370

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

81

Will any country declare an AI eligible to apply for citizenship by 2044?

Nov 2, 7:54 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

29.7%chance

464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

99

Which of Charles A. Beard's four lessons will Manifold think applies most to humanity in the year 2025?

Jan 15, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

222

OptionProbability

Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad with power

The mills of God grind slowly, but they grind exceedingly small

The bee fertilizes the flower it robs

When it is dark enough, you can see the stars

49

20

16

16

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