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Prediction markets for Apply

Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?

Sep 27, 2:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

22.74%chance

10821542

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2248

1811

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

27.06%chance

6120269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16061

6360

Would the $100k H-1B fee apply to intl. students graduating in the U.S. or switching from OPT?

Sep 23, 12:55 PMJan 20, 1:52 PM

36.6%chance

61975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6581

3799

Will gender-affirming hormone therapy be routinely applied to dogs in 2030?

Apr 2, 10:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.64%chance

171570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1538

101

Will the UK apply to rejoin the EU before 2030?

Feb 4, 12:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.31%chance

201404

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1192

931

Will Harvard be known to have applied race conscious admissions criteria between the 2023-2024 AY and 2028?

Jun 29, 7:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

87.24%chance

121116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1398

950

Under Hawley's proposed law, would the generative AI definition apply to curation algorithms like YouTube or Facebook?

Dec 6, 10:18 PMMar 16, 3:59 AM

8%chance

14604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1163

953

Will "Stop Applying And Get To Work" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 24, 12:53 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.27%chance

2252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

966

If I apply for funding from the LTFF before 2028, will I get accepted?

Jan 7, 11:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.69%chance

3249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

805

Will Applied Behavior Analysis be discredited by 2026

Aug 9, 7:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.73%chance

6167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

82

Will the Darwin Godel Machine be applied to one of Joseph Suarez's RL environments, like pufferfish by 2028?

May 31, 4:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.78%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

71

Number of Applied Rationality Toronto events in 2026?

Jan 19, 3:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

230

OptionProbability

8 - 14

1 - 7

15 - 21

>22

48

19

19

15

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