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Prediction markets for Apply

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

32.8%chance

6122391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13939

7262

Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?

Sep 27, 2:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

22.74%chance

10821542

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2248

1811

Would the $100k H-1B fee apply to intl. students graduating in the U.S. or switching from OPT?

Sep 23, 12:55 PMJan 20, 1:52 PM

25.35%chance

73975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5768

100

Will the UK apply to rejoin the EU before 2030?

Feb 4, 12:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.63%chance

201408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1158

935

Will Harvard be known to have applied race conscious admissions criteria between the 2023-2024 AY and 2028?

Jun 29, 7:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

87.24%chance

121116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1398

950

If I switch majors from Finance to Applied Mathematics, will I regret it in May 2027?

Feb 26, 7:46 AMMay 26, 6:04 AM

29.06%chance

10841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1562

640

Under Hawley's proposed law, would the generative AI definition apply to curation algorithms like YouTube or Facebook?

Dec 6, 10:18 PMMar 16, 3:59 AM

8%chance

14604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1163

953

How many universities my friend applied to will he be accepted to?

Feb 26, 2:54 AMMay 2, 12:00 AM

4575

OptionProbability

8 - 11

12 - 15

4 - 7

16 - 19

20 - 24

71

13

8

5

3

Will "Stop Applying And Get To Work" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 24, 12:53 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.27%chance

2252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

966

If I apply for funding from the LTFF before 2028, will I get accepted?

Jan 7, 11:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.69%chance

3249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

805

When will we see credible evidence that Microsoft's memo about security tradeoffs was not applied?

May 8, 8:44 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3114

OptionProbability

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-01-01

In 2026 or after

Before 2024-07-01

In 2030 or after, possibly never

75

70

69

54

48

46

Will any country declare an AI eligible to apply for citizenship by 2044?

Nov 2, 7:54 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

42.38%chance

484

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

80

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