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Prediction markets for Apply

Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?

Sep 27, 2:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8.07%chance

11325364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4814

1782

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

31.26%chance

7024069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14460

7017

Would the $100k H-1B fee apply to intl. students graduating in the U.S. or switching from OPT?

Sep 23, 12:55 PMJan 20, 1:52 PM

25.94%chance

83978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5759

103

Will the UK apply to rejoin the EU before 2030?

Feb 4, 12:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.17%chance

201458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1208

930

If I switch majors from Finance to Applied Mathematics, will I regret it in May 2027?

Feb 26, 7:46 AMMay 26, 6:04 AM

25.22%chance

151255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1722

581

Will Harvard be known to have applied race conscious admissions criteria between the 2023-2024 AY and 2028?

Jun 29, 7:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.31%chance

121126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

983

611

Will this party win the next UK general election? × Will the UK apply to join the EU in the five years after?

Apr 26, 5:59 PMAug 15, 5:58 PM

4730

OptionProbability

Reform, No

Labour, No

Conservatives, No

Green, No

Labour, Yes

Reform, Yes

Conservatives, Yes

Other

Green, Yes

Liberal Democrats, Yes

Liberal Democrats, No

44

15

7

5

5

5

5

5

4

1

1

Under Hawley's proposed law, would the generative AI definition apply to curation algorithms like YouTube or Facebook?

Dec 6, 10:18 PMMar 16, 3:59 AM

8%chance

14604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1163

953

How many bank teller jobs will I apply to before getting hired?

Feb 13, 5:23 PMJun 6, 3:59 AM

25%chance

15455

OptionVotes

NO

YES

201

195

Will I get accepted by these colleges if i apply?

Oct 14, 10:00 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

11388

OptionProbability

Any Ivy League (RD)

UChicago (EDI)

UChicago (EDII)

MIT (EA or RD)

64

28

28

24

Will "Stop Applying And Get To Work" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 24, 12:53 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.27%chance

2252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

966

If I apply for funding from the LTFF before 2028, will I get accepted?

Jan 7, 11:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.69%chance

3249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

805

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