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Prediction markets for Apply

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.5%chance

6422808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13402

7535

Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?

Sep 27, 2:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

23.63%chance

11121698

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2269

1739

Would the $100k H-1B fee apply to intl. students graduating in the U.S. or switching from OPT?

Sep 23, 12:55 PMJan 20, 1:52 PM

25.35%chance

73975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5768

100

How many people applied to be an in-person Hack Club intern?

Mar 23, 5:01 AMMar 28, 6:59 AM

302728

OptionProbability

Above 20

Above 80

Above 150

Above 250

Above 350

99

99

75

75

9

Will gender-affirming hormone therapy be routinely applied to dogs in 2030?

Apr 2, 10:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.64%chance

171570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1538

101

Will the UK apply to rejoin the EU before 2030?

Feb 4, 12:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.17%chance

201458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1208

930

If I switch majors from Finance to Applied Mathematics, will I regret it in May 2027?

Feb 26, 7:46 AMMay 26, 6:04 AM

25.22%chance

151255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1722

581

Will Harvard be known to have applied race conscious admissions criteria between the 2023-2024 AY and 2028?

Jun 29, 7:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

87.24%chance

121116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

601

Under Hawley's proposed law, would the generative AI definition apply to curation algorithms like YouTube or Facebook?

Dec 6, 10:18 PMMar 16, 3:59 AM

8%chance

14604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1163

953

Will "Stop Applying And Get To Work" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 24, 12:53 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.27%chance

2252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

966

If I apply for funding from the LTFF before 2028, will I get accepted?

Jan 7, 11:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.69%chance

3249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

805

Will any country declare an AI eligible to apply for citizenship by 2044?

Nov 2, 7:54 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

42.38%chance

484

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

80

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