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Prediction markets for Apply

Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?

Sep 27, 2:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8.07%chance

11325364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4814

1782

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

31.26%chance

7024069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14460

7017

Will Manifest offer a mana discount and/or can it be applied retroactively?

Mar 16, 11:38 PMDec 31, 12:28 AM

188872

OptionProbability

Mana discount, no retro

Mana discount, retro allowed

No mana discount

64

35

2

Would the $100k H-1B fee apply to intl. students graduating in the U.S. or switching from OPT?

Sep 23, 12:55 PMJan 20, 1:52 PM

25.35%chance

73975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5768

100

Will the UK apply to rejoin the EU before 2030?

Feb 4, 12:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.17%chance

201458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1208

930

If I switch majors from Finance to Applied Mathematics, will I regret it in May 2027?

Feb 26, 7:46 AMMay 26, 6:04 AM

25.22%chance

151255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1722

581

Will Harvard be known to have applied race conscious admissions criteria between the 2023-2024 AY and 2028?

Jun 29, 7:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

87.24%chance

121116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

601

Will this party win the next UK general election? × Will the UK apply to join the EU in the five years after?

Apr 26, 5:59 PMApr 26, 5:58 PM

4730

OptionProbability

Reform, No

Labour, No

Conservatives, No

Green, No

Labour, Yes

Reform, Yes

Conservatives, Yes

Other

Green, Yes

Liberal Democrats, Yes

Liberal Democrats, No

44

15

7

5

5

5

5

5

4

1

1

Under Hawley's proposed law, would the generative AI definition apply to curation algorithms like YouTube or Facebook?

Dec 6, 10:18 PMMar 16, 3:59 AM

8%chance

14604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1163

953

How many bank teller jobs will I apply to before getting hired?

Feb 13, 5:23 PMJun 6, 3:59 AM

25%chance

15455

OptionVotes

NO

YES

201

195

Will "Stop Applying And Get To Work" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 24, 12:53 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.27%chance

2252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

966

If I apply for funding from the LTFF before 2028, will I get accepted?

Jan 7, 11:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.69%chance

3249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

805

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