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Prediction markets for Arabs

After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?

Nov 2, 6:19 PMNov 9, 11:59 PM

21322656

OptionProbability

Hamas

Israel

International Peacekeeping Force

PLO

United States

Other

Territorial rule by tribal clans

Arab only Peacekeeping Force

United Arab Emirates

Saudi Arabia

A new Gaza-elected government

PLA

African Peacekeeping Force

Egypt

Qatar

Jordan

Palestinian Islamic Jihad

42

24

11

8

5

4

3

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Were there at least 100 deaths in the Gaza al-Ahli Arab Hospital explosion?

Oct 21, 4:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

98.29%chance

162852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3278

861

Will there be an Arab Spring-style wave of political unrest in the Middle East? [2025]

Jul 26, 1:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15%chance

242268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2018

687

Were there at least 200 deaths in the Gaza al-Ahli Arab Hospital explosion?

Oct 21, 4:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

73.45%chance

301595

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1364

679

Will a coalition of forces from Arab countries attack Israel before the end of Israel's current campaign in Gaza?

Nov 4, 10:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.1%chance

271437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1652

917

Will an Arab party be in the next Israeli coalition?

Apr 24, 7:38 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

24.5%chance

8617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

246

80

Will there be another Arab Spring by 2035?

Dec 26, 5:44 AMJan 1, 2:00 PM

49.68%chance

16262

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

941

When will the first Arabic country legalize same-sex marriage?

Aug 14, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6241

OptionProbability

< 2050

< 2040

Other

< 2030

33

31

22

14

Will at least 40 countries recognize the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic on Jan 1st 2030?

Dec 21, 3:11 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

37.65%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

74

Arab Party alliances in the next Knesset elections?

Dec 1, 10:23 AMOct 2, 3:59 AM

328

OptionProbability

Ra'am, Hadash + Ta'al + Balad

Ra'am, Hadash + Ta'al, Balad

Joint List (Ra'am + Hadash + Ta'al + Balad)

Ra'am + Hadash, Ta'al + Balad

Ra'am + Ta'al, Hadash + Balad

Other

40

21

10

10

10

10

Do you know Perso-Arabic alphabet and Japanese kana?

Jul 1, 7:14 PM

160

Change my view, Arabic numerals are a pareto improvement on Roman numerals.

Aug 15, 2:00 PMAug 16, 3:59 AM

00

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