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Prediction markets for are the

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Jul 9, 4:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3175201

OptionProbability

Republican president, <2%

Republican president, >= 2%, <3%

Republican president, >= 3%, <4%

Republican president, >=4%

Democrat president, <2%

Democrat president, >= 2%, <3%

Democrat president, >= 3%, <4%

Democrat president, >=4%

27

25

25

19

1

1

1

1

By 2025, over 60% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?

Dec 21, 4:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.41%chance

786766

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3495

1023

More than 10% of children born in the US are unconventionally conceived by mid 2030

Dec 30, 9:10 PMJun 2, 5:59 AM

12.94%chance

704476

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2757

893

Are the pronatalist couple good parents?

Jun 12, 8:06 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM

47.75%chance

282492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

956

By 2025, over 50% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?

Jan 3, 9:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.71%chance

462426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1208

912

If Republicans lose the Senate and Alito has not left the Court, will he leave before the new senators are seated?

Apr 3, 12:27 AMJan 3, 11:59 AM

50.69%chance

101032

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

986

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)?

Jan 7, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.49%chance

14583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1340

435

Will China start a program in which the government somehow breeds humans that are raised by the state before 2050?

Dec 6, 6:23 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.54%chance

4290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

775

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

988

Will "Why AI Evaluation Regimes are bad" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 2, 10:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "LLM robots can't pass butter (and they are ha..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 4, 7:22 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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