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Prediction markets for are the

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Jul 9, 4:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3174886

OptionProbability

Republican president, <2%

Republican president, >= 2%, <3%

Republican president, >= 3%, <4%

Republican president, >=4%

Democrat president, <2%

Democrat president, >= 2%, <3%

Democrat president, >= 3%, <4%

Democrat president, >=4%

31

26

21

19

1

1

1

1

By 2025, over 60% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?

Dec 21, 4:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.41%chance

786766

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3495

1023

More than 10% of children born in the US are unconventionally conceived by mid 2030

Dec 30, 9:10 PMJun 2, 5:59 AM

12.94%chance

694462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2757

893

Are the pronatalist couple good parents?

Jun 12, 8:06 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM

47.75%chance

282492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

956

By 2025, over 50% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?

Jan 3, 9:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.55%chance

462372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1263

895

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)?

Jan 7, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.98%chance

13533

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

481

Will Xi Jinping and Putin still be elected officials when Humans are orbiting the moon?

May 5, 4:21 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

66.29%chance

16479

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

981

Are there spirits lurking in the shadows?

Nov 24, 1:41 AMJan 1, 12:59 AM

49.2%chance

7436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

100

Will China start a program in which the government somehow breeds humans that are raised by the state before 2050?

Dec 6, 6:23 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.54%chance

4290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

775

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

988

Will "LLM robots can't pass butter (and they are ha..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 4, 7:22 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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