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Prediction markets for Are We Ded

Will the SALT Tax Deduction Limitation be at least X for a taxpayer filing Y for a given Tax Year?

Feb 23, 3:55 AMApr 30, 8:06 PM

113268

OptionProbability

>=$40,000 / Married-Jointly / TY2025

>=$40,000 / Married-Jointly / TY2026

>=$20,000 / Single / TY2025

>=$20,000 / Single / TY2026

>=$100,000 / Married-Jointly / TY2025

>$50,000 / Single / TY2025

>=$100,000 / Married-Jointly / TY2026

>=$50,000 / Single / TY2026

>=$20,000 / Married-Jointly / TY2024

95

91

90

90

77

74

15

10

0

Will Nectome have a legally separate nonprofit dedicated to storing patients by the end of the year?

Mar 18, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.89%chance

91435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1359

736

Will a tech giant build a dedicated nuclear power plant for AI operations before 2040?

Sep 25, 8:51 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

76.04%chance

101092

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1782

561

Will the tenth Dedekind number be known by 2040?

Aug 25, 7:21 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

68.73%chance

13692

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1337

794

Will the US continue to use a Standard Deduction in determining income tax by end of 2030?

Jan 22, 4:52 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.6%chance

12361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1203

941

Wil Nintendo release a dedicated VR console by the end of 2028?

May 2, 6:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.87%chance

7336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

400

25

Will surrogacy be partially or fully tax deductible in the US for federal taxes by EoY 2029

Jan 4, 4:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48%chance

3238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

961

Will the mortgage interest deduction be repealed any time before 2030?

Nov 3, 2:57 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14.61%chance

6146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

1070

Will there be a dedicated app or method to order pizza through Neuralink before the end of 2032?

Mar 21, 7:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.08%chance

8121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

322

192

Will any major auction house hold a dedicated NFT auction during Art Basel Miami 2026?

Feb 16, 11:47 PMDec 7, 11:59 PM

66%chance

4100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

By 2028, will there be a significant global initiative to create and maintain a dedicated archive of pre-2020s internet?

Nov 13, 3:46 PMDec 31, 10:03 PM

60.85%chance

665

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

117

As of 1/1/2027, which fund manager will have the largest fund dedicated to the PE secondary market?

Oct 6, 2:55 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

334

OptionProbability

Other

Ardian

Apollo

Blackstone

Lexington

56

33

6

3

2

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