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Prediction markets for Arena

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Jun 24, 9:42 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

48.82%chance

2511131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10330

9674

Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?

Mar 10, 12:34 PMMar 11, 3:59 AM

5.51%chance

2410099

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4205

460

Meta cheated at LM Arena to pump Llama-4's score?

Apr 8, 2:23 PMApr 8, 2:15 PM

21.37%chance

256500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1918

521

Will MTG Arena become the canonical source of rules functionality by the end of 2026?

Nov 18, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

11.2%chance

21988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1741

847

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2028?

Mar 9, 4:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

13815

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

Anthropic

xAI

Alibaba

DeepSeek

Meta

Cohere

55

43

40

38

38

35

34

17

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2027?

Mar 9, 4:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

13780

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

xAI

Meta

Anthropic

Alibaba

DeepSeek

Mistral

Cohere

82

64

62

34

34

34

30

24

18

Will Grok 4.2 be profitable on Prediction Arena end of February 2026?

Jan 27, 5:11 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

56.75%chance

10626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

873

Will Claude Opus 4.6 be profitable on Prediction Arena during its first 14 days of trading?

Feb 5, 9:02 PMApr 1, 7:59 PM

43%chance

4437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

869

Will I make Mythic on Arena without spending any money?

Mar 1, 6:05 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

52.93%chance

9250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

214

203

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

5234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

Will the LMSYS Chatbot Arena still be 'a thing' in 2027, under the same evaluation method?

May 3, 3:57 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

43%chance

792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

More than 60% of Chatbot Arena top 100 models use permissive licenses by EOY2026?

May 26, 11:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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