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Prediction markets for Arena

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Jun 24, 9:42 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

52.73%chance

2612335

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10470

9558

Will MTG Arena become the canonical source of rules functionality by the end of 2026?

Nov 18, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

2.95%chance

244638

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5391

632

Chatbot Arena: How high will AI score in 2026?

Feb 2, 7:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

144071

OptionProbability

1490+

1500+

1510+

1520+

1530+

1540+

1550+

1560+

1570+

1580+

1590+

1600+

100

100

98

94

86

77

65

55

49

39

30

23

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16%chance

132054

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2291

436

Will the recipients of naming rights money for the FTX Arena receive a demand to give their money back (e.g. to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Dec 19, 12:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

76%chance

91954

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

172

Which model family will rule the LMSYS Arena in 2026?

Dec 28, 11:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71436

OptionProbability

Gemini (Google)

Claude (Anthropic)

GPT (OpenAI)

Grok (xAI)

DeepSeek

Llama (Meta)

Qwen (Alibaba)

Kimi (Moonshot)

Mistral (Mistral AI)

Test

75

55

30

29

13

12

12

11

9

0

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2028?

Mar 9, 4:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

14845

OptionProbability

Google

Anthropic

OpenAI

xAI

Alibaba

DeepSeek

Meta

Cohere

59

49

43

38

38

35

34

17

Thinking Machines to top Chatbot Arena by EOY 2026?

May 8, 4:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.47%chance

11712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

629

16

Will "New ARENA material: 8 exercise sets on alignm..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 5, 12:18 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.22%chance

1500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

936

Llama 5 outperforms GPT 4o on LM Arena?

Jul 9, 10:08 PMJan 1, 11:05 PM

85.31%chance

10301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

241

42

Will I make Mythic on Arena without spending any money?

Mar 1, 6:05 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

52.93%chance

9250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

214

203

Will Jean-Jacques Goldman appear in any form during Celine Dion's Paris La Defense Arena concerts (Sep-Oct 2026)?

May 3, 8:17 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

36.55%chance

321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

37

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