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Prediction markets for Arm

US and Canada engage in armed conflict before January 1, 2029

Feb 19, 5:59 AMJan 2, 12:00 AM

5.66%chance

3011576

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4082

245

US and Canada engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:09 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

4.89%chance

245559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4409

227

US and Mexico engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:50 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

12.52%chance

134737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2644

378

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

Mar 17, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:00 PM

45.55%chance

593841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1113

875

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.97%chance

212082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1529

654

Will there be 10 or More Nuclear-Armed States by 2035 depending on a Trump win?

Jan 6, 10:23 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6953

OptionProbability

Trump wins and 10+ nuclear-armed states

Trump wins and 9 nuclear-armed states at most

Trump loses and 10+ nuclear-armed states

Trump loses and 9 nuclear-armed states at most

62

36

1

1

Will there be an armed conflict between China and the US before the end of 2030?

Sep 14, 12:22 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

23.11%chance

27908

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

900

Will Devon Larratt EVER defeat Levan Saginashvili in an arm wrestling supermatch?

Oct 2, 11:26 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

32.42%chance

4757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1444

693

Will there be an armed conflict between Russia and the European Economic Area before 1 January 2028?

Sep 14, 4:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42%chance

8339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

Will the majority of Russians cease to support "the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine" in 2026?

Jan 20, 12:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.65%chance

6250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

986

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2028?

Oct 24, 7:33 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

19.84%chance

6154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

55

By 2050 will it be clear that any section of the U.S. Armed Forces entered DEFCON 1 between 2020 and 2030?

Mar 14, 8:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

31.96%chance

331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

99

51

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