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Prediction markets for Arm

US and Canada engage in armed conflict before January 1, 2029

Feb 19, 5:59 AMJan 2, 12:00 AM

5.66%chance

3011576

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4082

245

US and Canada engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:09 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

4.89%chance

245559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4409

227

US and Mexico engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:50 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

12.52%chance

134737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2644

378

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

Mar 17, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:00 PM

53%chance

573642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

963

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.33%chance

202069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1516

660

Taiwan Presidential Election Result vs Armed Conflict with China in Following Term

Dec 7, 7:19 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

91278

OptionProbability

DPP Win / No Armed Conflict

DPP Win / Armed Conflict

KMT Win / Armed Conflict

KMT Win / No Armed Conflict

60

38

1

1

Will there be 10 or More Nuclear-Armed States by 2035 depending on a Trump win?

Jan 6, 10:23 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6953

OptionProbability

Trump wins and 10+ nuclear-armed states

Trump wins and 9 nuclear-armed states at most

Trump loses and 10+ nuclear-armed states

Trump loses and 9 nuclear-armed states at most

62

36

1

1

Will there be an armed conflict between China and the US before the end of 2030?

Sep 14, 12:22 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

23.11%chance

27908

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

900

Will Devon Larratt EVER defeat Levan Saginashvili in an arm wrestling supermatch?

Oct 2, 11:26 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

46.33%chance

2120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

929

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2030?

Oct 24, 7:35 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

40.24%chance

790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

94

85

By 2050 will it be clear that any section of the U.S. Armed Forces entered DEFCON 3 between 2020 and 2030?

Mar 14, 8:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

55.23%chance

230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

81

If Jose Luis ricon arm wrestled Stephen Hsu, would he win

Jun 8, 8:24 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.75%chance

29

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

96

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