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Prediction markets for ARM

If Trump wins, will Russia launch an armed attack against a NATO country within one year?

Mar 9, 11:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6.64%chance

10514689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1226

928

US and Canada engage in armed conflict before January 1, 2029

Feb 19, 5:59 AMJan 2, 12:00 AM

8.21%chance

288893

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3344

299

Will the for-profit arm of OpenAI be shut down or otherwise separated from the non-profit arm before 01/01/2026?

Jul 18, 9:28 PMJan 1, 2:30 AM

15.85%chance

295788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

946

US and Mexico engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:50 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

12%chance

124728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2708

369

US and Canada engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:09 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

8%chance

224393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3391

295

Will Google emoji kitchen include combos for the strong arm emoji 💪 by mid 2026?

Jan 2, 8:16 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

18.21%chance

312860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2119

472

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

Mar 17, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:00 PM

61.99%chance

562124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1235

806

Will I manage to do a one-arm pull up in 2025?

Jul 27, 11:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.11%chance

181304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1421

704

Will there be armed conflict between left- and right-wing extremists before 2030? (10v10 & 100v100)

Aug 1, 12:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

101246

OptionProbability

10 v 10

100 v 100

30

21

Will there be an armed conflict between China and the US before the end of 2030?

Sep 14, 12:22 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

23.61%chance

25849

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

881

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2027?

Oct 24, 7:32 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

29.88%chance

10229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

80

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2029?

Oct 24, 7:34 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

47.7%chance

8200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

105

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