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Prediction markets for Arm

US and Canada engage in armed conflict before January 1, 2029

Feb 19, 5:59 AMJan 2, 12:00 AM

3.71%chance

2910643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5094

196

US and Canada engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:09 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

4.89%chance

245559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4409

227

US and Mexico engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:50 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

12.52%chance

134737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2644

378

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

Mar 17, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:00 PM

54.52%chance

573614

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1054

935

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.33%chance

202069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1516

660

Will there be an armed conflict between China and the US before the end of 2030?

Sep 14, 12:22 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

23.11%chance

27908

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

900

Will any member of the US Armed Forces die in Greenland in 2026?

Jan 20, 8:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.57%chance

15550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

276

36

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2035?

Oct 24, 7:38 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

88.77%chance

6265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

251

33

Will armed conflict break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea by December 31, 2026?

Jan 21, 6:19 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

11%chance

2257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

284

35

Will Devon Larratt EVER defeat Levan Saginashvili in an arm wrestling supermatch?

Oct 2, 11:26 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

46.33%chance

2120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

929

If Jose Luis ricon arm wrestled Lada nuzhna, would he win

May 10, 3:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.37%chance

227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

If Jose Luis ricon arm wrestled Stephen Hsu, would he win

Jun 8, 8:24 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.75%chance

29

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

96

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