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Prediction markets for Arm

US and Canada engage in armed conflict before January 1, 2029

Feb 19, 5:59 AMJan 2, 12:00 AM

5.66%chance

3011576

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4082

245

US and Canada engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:09 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

4.89%chance

245559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4409

227

US and Mexico engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:50 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

12.52%chance

134737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2644

378

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

Mar 17, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:00 PM

53%chance

573642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

963

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.97%chance

212082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1529

654

Will there be an armed conflict between China and the US before the end of 2030?

Sep 14, 12:22 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

23.11%chance

27908

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

900

Which country will be the largest arms importer in the world in 2026?

Apr 8, 3:57 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

7622

OptionProbability

Ukraine

Saudi Arabia

Other

Poland

Indonesia

Qatar

India

United States

South Korea

Australia

Pakistan

Israel

Japan

United Arab Emirates

21

19

12

5

5

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

Will the majority of Russians cease to support "the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine" in 2026?

Jan 20, 12:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.65%chance

6250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

986

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2029?

Oct 24, 7:34 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

47.7%chance

8200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

105

Will Devon Larratt EVER defeat Levan Saginashvili in an arm wrestling supermatch?

Oct 2, 11:26 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

46.33%chance

2120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

929

If Jose Luis ricon arm wrestled Lada nuzhna, would he win

May 10, 3:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.37%chance

227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

If Matt Kaeberlein were to arm-wrestle Bryan Johnson, would he win?

Jul 8, 9:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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