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Prediction markets for Arm

US and Canada engage in armed conflict before January 1, 2029

Feb 19, 5:59 AMJan 2, 12:00 AM

7.19%chance

289143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3594

278

US and Canada engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:09 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

5%chance

235509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4359

229

US and Mexico engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:50 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

12%chance

124728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2708

369

Which country will be the largest arms importer in the world in 2025?

Apr 18, 1:44 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

202537

OptionProbability

Ukraine

Poland

India

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

South Korea

Australia

Pakistan

Japan

United States

Other

95

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

Mar 17, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:00 PM

61.99%chance

562124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1235

806

Will there be an armed conflict between China and the US before the end of 2030?

Sep 14, 12:22 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

23.11%chance

27908

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

900

Will Apple launch a server product based on proprietary ARM CPUs by End of 2026?

Mar 13, 10:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.55%chance

9210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

62

Will Valerii Zaluzhnyi ever be reinstated as the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine?

Feb 8, 8:17 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.55%chance

5174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

240

90

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2028?

Oct 24, 7:33 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

19.84%chance

6154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

55

Will Devon Larratt EVER defeat Levan Saginashvili in an arm wrestling supermatch?

Oct 2, 11:26 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

46.33%chance

2120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

929

Will a Taiwanese armed forces pilot defect to China with their aircraft before 2030?

Dec 12, 2:04 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

23.65%chance

572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

98

By 2050 will it be clear that any section of the U.S. Armed Forces entered DEFCON 3 between 2020 and 2030?

Mar 14, 8:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

55.23%chance

230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

81

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