Arrival News

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

81158492

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2030

Before January 2029

Before January 2028

Before January 2027

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

Before January 2026

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Elbaf Megathread (Answers will resolve as they occur)

Aug 19, 2:49 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

21596569

OptionProbability

Loki face reveal

Other holy knights beside Garling face reveal (at least one)

Dragon finally makes a move

Shanks backstory with Garling involved

Usopp powerup (haki or new weapon)

Luffy finds out that the Bartolomeo Pirates were destroyed by Shanks's crew

Man marked by flames is revealed

Cross guild arrives on Elbaf

Vivi rejoins the crew

Imu face reveal

Kidd washes up on the shore and is seen in the arc

Shanks's crew do a davy back fight with the strawhats

Big Mom returns (must be present in-person)

100

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.13%chance

172254

OptionVotes

YES

3031

1477

Which happens first? Starliner-2, Psyche arrival, Artemis III, or New Glenn 15?

Aug 10, 2:15 PMSep 1, 5:59 AM

101756

OptionProbability

New Glenn flight 15 launch

Starliner-2 launch

Artemis III launch

Psyche arrives at Psyche-16

None of the above

When will AGI arrive

Nov 27, 1:39 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

271701

OptionProbability

2020s

2030s

2040s

After 2050

Before 2030, will any* country require that most people arriving by plane must take blood tests?

Mar 16, 12:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.2%chance

171413

OptionVotes

YES

1872

534

Will the Europa Clipper mission last at least 4 years after arriving at Jupiter?

Aug 31, 7:42 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

80.29%chance

9445

OptionVotes

YES

225

141

Will flight CK206 arrive BEFORE 17:00 UTC?

May 4, 6:14 PMMay 5, 2:00 PM

29%chance

12377

OptionVotes

YES

1004

989

Will an AI system capable of doing 50% of knowledge job arrive by 2027?

Oct 13, 4:24 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

20.73%chance

6314

OptionVotes

YES

196

In which year will the first extraterrestrially mined material arrive on Earth?

Jun 29, 3:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.21%chance

4137

OptionProbability

YES

392

273

Malaysia's tourism arrivals exceed 31 million in 2025

Apr 24, 2:51 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

48.04%chance

372

OptionVotes

YES

1040

961

Will Dario Amodei write an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and/or when it will arrive, by October 2027?

Oct 13, 7:03 PMOct 12, 3:59 AM

64.73%chance

572

OptionVotes

YES

135

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When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Elbaf Megathread (Answers will resolve as they occur)

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Which happens first? Starliner-2, Psyche arrival, Artemis III, or New Glenn 15?

When will AGI arrive

Before 2030, will any* country require that most people arriving by plane must take blood tests?

Will the Europa Clipper mission last at least 4 years after arriving at Jupiter?

Will flight CK206 arrive BEFORE 17:00 UTC?

Will an AI system capable of doing 50% of knowledge job arrive by 2027?

In which year will the first extraterrestrially mined material arrive on Earth?

Malaysia's tourism arrivals exceed 31 million in 2025

Will Dario Amodei write an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and/or when it will arrive, by October 2027?

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