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Prediction markets for Arrival

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.72%chance

205734

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4744

1120

Which happens first? Starliner-2, Psyche arrival, Artemis III, or New Glenn 15?

Aug 10, 2:15 PMSep 1, 5:59 AM

142857

OptionProbability

Artemis III launch

Starliner-2 launch

New Glenn flight 15 launch

Psyche arrives at Psyche-16

None of the above

71

15

10

2

1

When will AGI arrive

Nov 27, 1:39 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

271701

OptionProbability

2020s

2030s

2040s

After 2050

53

33

8

6

Before 2030, will any* country require that most people arriving by plane must take blood tests?

Mar 16, 12:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.2%chance

171413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1872

534

Will Canada raise its 2027 international-student arrivals target above 150,000 by December 31, 2026?

Apr 21, 4:29 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

33.81%chance

2475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1399

715

Will the Europa Clipper mission last at least 4 years after arriving at Jupiter?

Aug 31, 7:42 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

80.29%chance

9445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

225

141

Will CBP refuse to process international arrivals at any major US airport in 2026?

May 29, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.78%chance

3400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1400

714

Will flight CK206 arrive BEFORE 17:00 UTC?

May 4, 6:14 PMMay 5, 2:00 PM

29%chance

12377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

989

Do the Walk for Peace Monks arrive in Washington DC and appear in photos with Trump?

Jan 3, 8:58 PMDec 31, 8:57 PM

15.59%chance

7269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

43

In which year will the first extraterrestrially mined material arrive on Earth?

Jun 29, 3:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.21%chance

4137

OptionProbability

YES

NO

392

273

Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher?

Sep 19, 7:41 PMJan 1, 8:25 PM

7109

OptionProbability

Autonomous AI math researcher

Quantum computer that can break RSA-2048

Neither arrives by January 1, 2040

71

17

12

2026 Premier League Transfer Window: Which players will arrive from foreign leagues?

Jun 22, 1:49 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

Bradley Barcola

Ayyoub Bouaddi

Yan Diomande

Aurelien Tchouameni

Julian Alvarez

66

66

50

50

50

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