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Prediction markets for Arrival

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.01%chance

216599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5609

1010

Will Canada raise its 2027 international-student arrivals target above 150,000 by December 31, 2026?

Apr 21, 4:29 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

4.21%chance

45282

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4768

210

Before 2030, will any* country require that most people arriving by plane must take blood tests?

Mar 16, 12:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.2%chance

171413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1872

534

Will an AI system capable of doing 50% of knowledge job arrive by 2027?

Oct 13, 4:24 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

37%chance

13473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will the Europa Clipper mission last at least 4 years after arriving at Jupiter?

Aug 31, 7:42 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

80.29%chance

9445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

225

141

Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher?

Sep 19, 7:41 PMJan 1, 8:25 PM

13414

OptionProbability

Autonomous AI math researcher

Quantum computer that can break RSA-2048

Neither arrives by January 1, 2040

93

4

3

Will CBP refuse to process international arrivals at any major US airport in 2026?

May 29, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.78%chance

3400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1400

714

Will flight CK206 arrive BEFORE 17:00 UTC?

May 4, 6:14 PMMay 5, 2:00 PM

29%chance

12377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

989

Will Dario Amodei write an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and/or when it will arrive, by October 2027?

Oct 13, 7:03 PMOct 12, 3:59 AM

79%chance

10289

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

52

Do the Walk for Peace Monks arrive in Washington DC and appear in photos with Trump?

Jan 3, 8:58 PMDec 31, 8:57 PM

15.59%chance

7269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

43

In which year will the first extraterrestrially mined material arrive on Earth?

Jun 29, 3:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.21%chance

4137

OptionProbability

YES

NO

392

273

Will a magical manic pixie dream girl arrive to save qiaochu yuan by 2029?

Oct 5, 11:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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