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Prediction markets for Arrival

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.9%chance

194054

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4453

1165

Which happens first? Starliner-2, Psyche arrival, Artemis III, or New Glenn 15?

Aug 10, 2:15 PMSep 1, 5:59 AM

102287

OptionProbability

Artemis III launch

New Glenn flight 15 launch

Starliner-2 launch

Psyche arrives at Psyche-16

None of the above

49

33

13

3

1

When will AGI arrive

Nov 27, 1:39 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

271701

OptionProbability

2020s

2030s

2040s

After 2050

53

33

8

6

Before 2030, will any* country require that most people arriving by plane must take blood tests?

Mar 16, 12:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.2%chance

171413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1872

534

Will the Europa Clipper mission last at least 4 years after arriving at Jupiter?

Aug 31, 7:42 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

80.29%chance

9445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

225

141

Will an AI system capable of doing 50% of knowledge job arrive by 2027?

Oct 13, 4:24 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

45%chance

12423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Will flight CK206 arrive BEFORE 17:00 UTC?

May 4, 6:14 PMMay 5, 2:00 PM

29%chance

12377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

989

Do the Walk for Peace Monks arrive in Washington DC and appear in photos with Trump?

Jan 3, 8:58 PMDec 31, 8:57 PM

15.59%chance

7269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

43

In which year will the first extraterrestrially mined material arrive on Earth?

Jun 29, 3:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.21%chance

4137

OptionProbability

YES

NO

392

273

Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher?

Sep 19, 7:41 PMJan 1, 8:25 PM

799

OptionProbability

Autonomous AI math researcher

Quantum computer that can break RSA-2048

Neither arrives by January 1, 2040

74

15

11

Will Dario Amodei write an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and/or when it will arrive, by October 2027?

Oct 13, 7:03 PMOct 12, 3:59 AM

67.91%chance

682

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

Will a magical manic pixie dream girl arrive to save qiaochu yuan by 2029?

Oct 5, 11:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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